CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/12/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000007
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: December 19, 1958

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ii
II
3.5(c)
19
December
3.3(h)(2)
1958
Copy No. C 6 0
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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19 DECEMBER 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet ship in Cape Canaveral down-
range area since 10 December; may
be supporting submarines in intelli-
ence collection.
Chinese Communist resolution on
communes recognizes practical dif-
ficultiestespecially in urban areas.
Bulganin confesses complicity in anti-
Ehrushchev plot last year.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
UAR forces in Syria remain alert.
Israeli official
contends UN action leaves retalia-
tion as only recourse.
Jordan intends to complain to Ham-
marskjold about UAR and Iraqi in-
terference with commerce,
2,
V
Sudanese Government invites Soviet
economic delegation; Abboud may
seek large cotton barter deals.
Iran shows growing concern over
possibility Iraq may go Communist
or become pro-Nasir.
Burma - Ne Win tells Soviet repre-
sentatives to complete aid projects free
of charge or leave country; cancels
contract with US firms.
III. THE WEST
Guatemala - Nullification of leftist
victory in mayoral elections increases
political factionalism.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
19 December 1958
DAILY BRIEF
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet naval activity: A Soviet tanker, which has re-
mained in the down-range area of the Cape Canaveral
missile test range since 10 December, may be support-
ing a group of submarines which appear to be in the same
area as the tanker and are believed to have moved recently
from the North Atlantic. These ship Q rnavhA ertiltaptina in-
telligence on US missile operations.
(Page 1)
Communist China: Peiping's resolution on the commune
program indicates that the regime intends generally to carry
out its program along the broad lines laid down in August,
but the Communists recognize many practical problems have
arisen in trying to put their policy into effect. The resolu-
tion emphasizes differences between rural and urban areas
and says that, except for preparatory work, the establish-
ment of communes in large cities should be postponed for the
time being. Reflecting a sensitivity to Soviet disapproval of
Chinese statements implying that "Communism" was close
at hand, the resolution warns against "utopian" dreams and
declares that the task of building socialism- a necessary
transition to Communism--will take some time.
(Page 2)
*USSR: Bulganin has been forced to admit his complicity
in the June 1957 "antiparty plot" in order to emphasize Khru-
shchev's control over the Soviet party and state on the eve of
the 21st party congress and the inauguration of the new seven-
year plan. The necessity for public reaffirmation of Khru-
shchev's dominance may be an indication that he is having
some difficulty in carrying out a number of major programs
simultaneously. (Page 4)
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Arab-Israeli situation: The UAR has not reduced the
alert status of general reserve units in the Syrian region,
and apparently will continue propaganda regarding alleged
Israeli troop concentrations.
An Israeli Foreign Ministry official claims Israel has
been put "on the spot" by the UN Security Council's deferral
of action on Tel Aviv's complaint, and that his government
has been left little recourse except "retaliation." The offi-
cial emphasized, however, that there has been no decision
to retaliate. (Page 5)
Jordan: Prime Minister Rifai says King Husayn is again
seriously concerned about Jordan's immediate economic dif-
ficulties. The UAR has continued to obstruct Jordanian transit
trade; the Iraqi regime has prohibited the export of sheep to
Jordan-' and an acute oil shortage appears imminent. Husayn
intends to take his complaints to Hammarskjold. Jordan can
also be expected to use its grievances to press for continued
American financial aid. Page 6)
Sudan: The Abboud government has renewed an invita-
tion issued by former Prime Minister Khalil for the visit of
a Soviet economic delegation. In view of its continuing inabil-
ity to market its cotton crop, the Sudanese Government may
seek to conclude large-scale barter arrangements. Small
barter agreements have already been signed with Bulgaria,
Hungary, and Communist China.
(Page 8)
Iran-Iraq: the Iranian Senate un-
derscored Iran's growing concern over developments in Iraq.
The Senate unanimously agreed that should "Iraq go Commu-
nist or Nasirite, Iran would be justified in using force."
(Page 9)
Burma: Premier Ne Win has notified Soviet represent-
atives in Rangoon that they must complete their "gift" proj-
ects free of charge or leave. The previous Burmese Gov-
ernment, which had accepted these projects, had insisted on
19 Dec 58
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repaying the USSR in rice. Ne Win has also terminated con-
tracts with two American advisory firms. These actions
underscore Ne Win's determination to cut government spend-
in by bv a Dolicv of accepting only grant aid, whatever the source.
(Page 10)
III. THE WEST
Guatemala: The 7 December mayoral election in Guate-
mala City, which was won by the leftist but non-Communist
Revolutionary party, has been nullified by the national elec-
toral tribunal on a legal technicality. This action, apparently
the result of pressure by extreme rightist groups, widens the
cleavage between the political left and right and could lead to
factional clashes weakening the stability of President Ydigoras'
government. (Page 11)
W. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
(Available during the preceding week)
National Intelligence Estimate No. 54-2-58. The Outlook
for Political Stability in Ceylon. 9 December 1958.
National Intelligence Estimate No. 80-90-58. Latin Amer-
ican Attitudes Toward the United States. 12 December 1958.
19 Dec 58
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet Tanker Possibly Supporting Submarine Operations
The Soviet tanker Vilyujsk has remained in an area along
the Cape Canalreral missile test range approximately 600 miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands since 10 December. This
ship has been communicating with Soviet naval authorities and
may be supporting the operations of a detachment of Northern
Fleet submarines.
Both the Vilyujsk and the submarine detachment of unknown
size left the Kola Gulf area in late November. Since then the
submarine detachment has been receiving enciphered commu-
nications of a type suggesting that it may have a special mission.
The radio frequencies employed indicate that the detachment is
in the same general area as the tanker.
These ships may have moved to this area to collect intelli-
gence on US missile operations, and the planned duration of the
deployment could have necessitated tanker support for the sub-
marines.
There is also a possibility that the submarines are moving
to the Pacific Ocean. The tanker was scheduled to cross the
Northern Sea Route in 1958, but, like the naval convoy, which
probably included submarines, was unable to reach the Pacific
herniice nf severe ice conditions.
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Chinese Communist Resolution on Commune Program
Peiping's resolution on the commune program issued on
18 December indicates that the regime intends to carry out
communalization along lines laid down by the politburo in
August but is encountering practical problems. The com-
munes will continue to feature mass feeding and housing,
nurseries, boarding schools and old-age homes, but the re-
gime has softened some of the more objectionable aspects
of communal living.
The resolution chides certain cadres who have been "over-
eager" in carrying out the communal program and lays down
fairly detailed lines for their future guidance. It emphasizes
the need to avoid dampening the "labor enthusiasm" of commune
members. To this end it expresses the hope that wages rather
than "free supply" will be the major form of recompense and
that 90 percent of the members will get yearly increases. Pro-
vision is also made to ensure adequate sleep and time to eat.
Private property--clothing, bedding, and furniture--is to re-
main inviolable, as are personal savings.
The resolution's references to urban communes tend to
confirm earlier evidence that this phase of the movement had
caused concern and confusion in the larger cities. The resolu-
tion emphasizes the differences between rural and urban areas,
and admits that "bourgeois ideology" is still prevalent in the
large cities. Except for necessary preparatory work, the es-
tablishment of urban communes on a large scale is to be post-
poned until the misgivings of "skeptics and doubters" have been
overcome.
Reflecting Peiping's sensitivity to Soviet disapproval of
Chinese statements implying that Communism is close at hand,
the resolution warns against the "utopian dream of skipping the
Socialist stage" and declares that the 'building of Socialism"
alohe will take "15, 20, or more years." It specifically denied
that communalization is to be equated with the change from
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Socialism to Communism and stresses that without a "high
degree" of industrialization and mechanized and electrified
agriculture it is "impossible" to talk about Communism. Im-
plications that the communes might have significance beyond
China are avoided.
CONFIDENTIAL
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Bulganin Confesses Complicity in "Antiparty Plot"
At the current Soviet central committee plenum, former
Premier Bulganin has been forced to confess his complicity
in last year's "antiparty plot" not only to verify the charges
against his fellow conspirators but also to deliver a testi-
monial to the wisdom of Khrushchev's policies. Khrushchev
has apparently found it necessary to mount a full-scale at-
tack against his "antiparty" opponents in order to emphasize
his control over the Soviet party and state on the eve of the
21st party congress and the inauguration of a new seven-year
plan.
Other recent events, including the failure of the Soviet
Government to announce a replacement for ousted police chief
Serov and the implications of Moscow's decision to dispatch
First Deputy Premier Mikoyan to the United States, might in-
dicate that Khrushchev is having difficulty in carrying out a
number of major programs simultaneously.
The current plenum appears to have been planned well in
advance to provide a forum for the fresh attack on the "anti-
party group" and for Bulganin's confession. The date was
presumably set at the 12 November meeting of the central com-
mittee at which Khrushchev unveiled the new Soviet seven-year
economic plan and first linked Bulganin with the plotters.
) A mid-November intercept by an unoffi-
cial monitoring service stated that the central committee would
meet on 15 December to discuss agricultural matters and that
the meeting would last five clays.
The unprecedented publicity accorded the plenum while it
is still in session appears designed to make certain that the les-
son of the "antiparty group" is made clear to all Soviet citizens.
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Arab-Israeli Situation
The tTAR is planning inflammatory propaganda to sus-
tain the tension which has arisen over the Israeli-Syrian
border incidents. On 17 December, Cairo approved aSyr-
ian plan to announce fake call-ups of UAR reserves, using
fictitious unit numbers, after broadcasts alleging Israeli
mobilization and troop movements. At the same time, a
reduction in the "degree of readiness" of the UAR brigades
and general reserve units along the Syrian border, instittit-
ed by the local commander, has been overruled from Cairo
by Fislrl Marshal mir, the UAR commander in chief.
)!.
a new Bailey bridge has been seen above Lake
Hula at Israel's northern extremity adjacent to Syria, apparent-
ly for use over a tributary of the Jordan River.
An Israeli official has stated that an "air of discourage-
ment and unhappiness" exists at Israel's Foreign Ministry
because of the absence of any satisfactory result from Israel's
complaint against the UAR in the UN Security tnuncil. His
government, he said, is now "on the spot" with the Knesset
and Israeli public opinion, leaving it, in his opinion, little
recourse except retaliation, although he emphasized there
had been no decision to this effect.
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� Developments in Jordan
Jordan's shaky economy may be further disrupted by con-
tinuing UAR economic warfare, a new Iraqi ban on export of
sheep to Jordan, the aftermath of drought and locust infesta-
tion, and an acute oil shortage.
The UAR refusal to permit passage of Jordanian oil tank
trucks through Syria from Lebanon has been in force since the
civil war in Lebanon late last spring, despite UAR endorse-
ment of the UN General Assembly's Middle East resolution of
21 August. In November, Syria imposed prohibitive transit fees
on passage of Jordanian trucks hauling phosphate, Jordan's
principal export, to Lebanon; this week Syria passed a new
regulation requiring all goods arriving at Latakia to be carried
to the Jordanian border in Syrian vehicles manned by Syrian
drivers.
Jordan's present oil shortage derives not only from the
Syrian blockade, but from mismanagement of the importation
of oil through the Gulf of Aqaba. Amman appears to be at-
tempting to exploit its serious and chronic economic problems
to develop arguments for continued American financial assist-
ance. The government also insists that it will be unable to
meet the army payroll due on 27 December unless it draws on
reserve funds or obtains more budgetary support from the
United States.
Although the UAR economic pressure has been in effect
for several months, the Jordanian Government has been slow
to present complaints to the UN "ambassador" in Amman, who
has been charged with iMplementatioh of the August UN resolu-
tion. Information provided by Amman in support of such com-
plaints has been inadequate to support UN action. Jordan's
Premier Rifai on 15 December described King Husayn as
"furious" over the latest Syrian move, and again threatening
to take retaliatory action against Syria. Rifai said that when
UN Secretary General Hammarskjold visits Amman about
3 January, Jordan will ask that the UN establish offices in
SEC-PE-
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Damascus and Beirut or withdraw from Amman. In view of
probable new pressure from Hammarskjold, it is possible
that the UAR might lift the physical restriction on passage
of Jordanian vehicles, but continue to obstruct traffic
through high taxation and other recent administrative meas-
ures.
On 16 December the Jordanian legislature authorized Pre-
mier Rifai, in his capacity as defense minister, to reorganize
the Jordanian armed forces. Rifaits plan to curtail the power
of the potent officer faction from the Bani Sakhir tribe may
provoke this group into intrigue against the government.
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Sudan Invites Soviet Economic Delegation
The Sudan has renewed an invitation extended to the USSR
by the government of former Prime Minister Khalil to send an
economic delegation to Kabul at a time of its choosing. The
Sudan has been increasingly preoccupied with the problem of
disposing of large stocks of long-staple cotton.
Khartoum has asked for American marketing assistance
in disposing of the estimated 230,000 bales of long-staple cot-
ton already on hand before the near-record crop of about
620,000 bales comes on the market in March. The Sudanese
ambassador in Cairo has asked if the United States might as-
sign to the Sudan a part of the Egyptian quota for long-staple
sales to the United States.
Thus far the Sudan has been reluctant to enter into barter
deals. However, the failure of traditional Western customers
to increase their purchases has probably encouraged the gov-
ernment to accept a large barter deal with the USSR. Already
Khartoum has bartered small quantities of cotton to Bulgaria,
Hungary, and Communist China.
It is also possible that the Sudan would ask for Soviet aid
in construction of a number of Nile River development projects
for which it has, thus far, been unable to secure Western aid
in the absence of an agreement with Egypt to share the Nile
waters. Since these Nile works would intensify the Nile waters
dispute with Egypt, the Soviet reaction to such a request re-
mains problematical.
CONFIDENTIAL
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Iran Increasingly Concerned Over Iraqi Developments
The Iranian Senate,
unanimously approved the government's use of force if Iraq
should come under the dominance of either Nasir or the Com-
munists.
Other courses of action being studied by Iran include di-
version of all irrigation waters now flowing from Iran into
Iraq and closure of the common border. Iran,has already tight-
ened passport and frontier controls, and Iraq also apparently
intends to seal its side of the border. Its refusal on 18 Decem-
ber to permit overflight by a Pan-American airliner bound
from Tehran to Beirut may be a first move in this direction.
Secret police are keeping Iraqis in Iran under surveil-
lance and may soon arrest some of their Iranian contacts.
To prepare the public for possible use of these measures, the
Iranian prime minister has ordered the press to publish edi-
torials urging the government to take stronger action toward
Iraq.
While the Iranian Government is alarmed over the threat
of a hostile Iraq armed by the Soviet Union, it may be dram-
atizing its position in order to reinforce its appeal for further
US military and economic aid.
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Burma Disengaging Itself From Loan Obligations to USSR
Premier Ne Win informed Soviet
construction missions in Rangoon on 16 December that they must
complete their "gift projects really free of charge, .." or "leave."
These projects, which include a hotel, hospital, and technical in-
stitute, had originally been offered to Burma free of charge by
Bulganin and Ithrushchev during their 1956 visit to Burma, but
former Prime Minister U Nu subsequently insisted that Burma
pay all local currency expenses and repay the foreign currency
required in 20 annual installments of rice. The total cost of
these projects was estimated to be in the neighborhood of $502-
000,000.
Ne Win sent the same demand to a Soviet
mission overseeing the planning and execution of six agricultural
projects, at least two of which will require small Soviet credits.
The Burmese Government has previously refused to extend the
contracts of the 22 members of the mission, but presumably now
is prepared to let them stay on if Moscow will foot the bill.
These policy decisions underscore Ne Win's impatience with
his predecessors' concept of "reimbursable aid." In a conversa-
tion with Ambassador McConaughy on 15 December, Ne Win said
obsession with this "idea of politicians" had saddled the Burmese
Government with too many foreign loans. Moreover, in referring
to the termination of the contracts of two American advisory
firms earlier in the month, the Burmese premier said that Burma
could ill afford to support adviser staffs or carry out their "gran-
diose" notions when it was in a period of economic retrenchment.
He said Burma is, however, prepared to accept unconditional
grant aid.
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III. THE WEST
Annulment of Leftist Victory in Guatemala City Election
May Cause Violence
The national electoral tribunal late on 17 December an-
nulled the 7 December mayoral election in Guatemala City
on a legal technicality. The candidate of the leftist but non-
Communist Revolutionary party (PR) won the election.
Rightists, who had, almost 60 percent of the votes but
split them among three candidates, reacted bitterly to the
election results, and'extremists urged an attempt to oust
President Ydigoras, arguing that his relatively tolerant re-
gime was responsible for leftist gains. The election annul-
ment may foreshadow a shift by the President toward the
repressive tactics being urged on him by these extremists,
and.will in any case embitter the political cleavages in Guate-
mala. In the long run, the annulment could seriously weaken
his regime.
The PR, Guatemala's strongest single political party and
once a prime target for Communist infiltration and control,
has just concluded a drastic purge of Communists and pro-
Communists from its ranks. The adoption of repressive tac-
tics against it now could undo the effect of the purge by seem-
ing to support Communist contentions that all leftist elements
must unite.
The government may feel compelled to decree a form of
martial law to deal with the violent demonstrations and coun-
terdemonstrations which may be provoked by invalidation of
the election.
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repi lase'
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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