CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/10/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02998387
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: October 16, 1958

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Copy No. C 59
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16 OCTOBER 1958
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait - No significant mil-
itary activity on 15 October.
USSR - Novaya Zemlya nuclear test
on 15 October possibly in megaton
range.
Moscow requests Shah's permission
for visit to Iran by President Voro-
shilov.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Iraq - Lack of leailership has led to
paralysis and discontent; weeks just
ahead seen critical for Qasim.
Tunisia - Bourguiba breaks diplo-
matic relations with UAR.
Breakdown threatened in Japanese-
South Korean "normalization" talks.
Indonesian army opposes Communist
plans for month-long demonstrations.
0 South Vietnam - Diem warns of Com-
munist plans to bomb MAAG headquar-
ters.
LATE ITEM
Thailand - Army and air force units
in Bangkok area placed on alert be-
ginning 15 October.
TI) P riir"71
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ctivity on 15 October.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
16 October 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
*Taiwan Strait situation: There WRS nn significant military
(Page 1)
Watch Committee conclusion�Taiwan Strait: Indications
are that the Chinese Communist cease-fire will continue at
least for the stated period barring serious Chinese National-
ist provocative acts, which a'te considered unlikely in the im-
mediate futures
USSR nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence
Committee made the following announcement at 1500 hours on
15 October:
"The Atomic Energy Detection System has re-
ported that an explosion occurred at 0751 GMT on
15 October 1958 in the vicinity of Novaya Zemlya
*This is the tenth nuclear test in the current phase of Soviet
nuclear testing. Previous tests were held on 30 September two
tests), 2 October (two tests). and 4. 5 6 in anti 12 October.
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*USSR-Iran: The Soviet Union is pressing the Iranian
Government to accept a visit by President Voroshilov in the
near future. Voroshilov would probably stress Soviet ef-
forts of the past several years at removing causes of fric-
tion, such as border and transportation problems, and renew
offers of economic aid. The Shah has not yet made a decision
on the request. Meanwhile, Iranian officials are concerned
over what they regard as a si nificant increase bloc prop-
aganda against the Shah. (Page 3)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Iraq: After three months in power, the new regime is
still disorganized and Iraq, in effect, lacks a government in
the Western sense, according to an assessment by the Amer-
ican Embassy in Baghdad. The lack of dynamic and unified
leadership, especially in the economic field, has led to wide-
spread paralysis and increasing discontent. The embassy
foresees the weeks just ahead as critical ones for Qasim, who
is faced with stro7g pressures from within and without.
(Page 4)
Watch Committee conclusion�Middle East: Although a
deliberate initiation of open hostilities in the Middle East is un-
likely in the immediate future, the situation remains unstable
throughout the area, and incidents and coups could occur at any
time.
NOTE: In Lebanon, political and religious strife, although some-
what eased, continues to endanger the stability of the country. The
survival of the Jordanian regime continues to be threatened. If
the regime in Jordan collapses, action by Israel and other neigh-
boring countries to take control of Jordanian territory is likely.
In Iraq, internal conditions continue to invite action by the Commu-
nists and pro-Nasir elements to further their respective objectives.
16 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF
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Tunisia- UAR: In reaction to Tunisia's decision to
break off diplomatic relations with the UAR, Nasir will
probably step up his propaganda assault on the Bourguiba
regime and increase his assistance to Tunisian opposition
elements. In efforts to gain support for its move, Tunisia
has sent a special envoy to Morocco and has made a new bid
for American military aid.
(Page 5)
Japan - South Korea: South Korea is threatening to
break off negotiations to normalize relations with Japan
over Japanese refusal to recognize the "Fthee Line."
Another suspension of the talks would expose Kishi to do-
mestic criticism for not persuading the United States to
exercise a moderating Influence on President Rhee. This
situation would be aggravated by resumption of large-scale
Korean seizures of Japanese fishing vessels on the high
seas. (Page 6) (Map)
� Indonesia: The army is worried over Communist plans
for month-long anti-Western demonstrations to exploit such
issues as the Taiwan Strait, nuclear testing, and the Middle
East. The army has vetoed these plans, but Communist lead-
ers may feel they must make at least a token effort.
(Page 7)
South Vietnam: President Diem warns that recently
arrested North Vietnamese agents have disclosed Commu-
nist plans to bomb American MAAG headquarters and cer-
tain public utilities' installations in Saigon during the 23-26
Octsiber national holiday *period. All concerned have been
advised and precautions are being taken. These agents re-
vealed they were responsible for the Saigon bombings last
October in which 13 American military personnel were
wounded.
16 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF Iii
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LATE ITEM
*Thailand: Army and air force units in the Bangkok area
have been ordered on general alert beginning 15 October.
Political tension has mounted in recent weeks, and the alert
may have been called either as a purely precautionary move
or in response to the threat of a coup by a faction within the
ruling military clique. Thai strongman Marshal Sarit, aware
of growing discord among his followers, has been planning an
early return from England.
16 Oct 58 DAILY BRIEF
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait Situation
Peiping issued its "32nd serious warning" on 15 October,
alleging intrusions by two US warships in the Pingtan Island
area and one air intrusion over Wai Ling Ting Island just
outside Hong Kong territorial waters. This is the first warn-
ing concerning an intrusion near Hong Kong and is probably
intended to underscore Communist China's claim to a 12-mile
limit including the area adjacent to the Crown Colony.
a high level of naval activity, particularly in East China waters
and including exercises by landing ships near Hangchow Bay.
Large-scale jet aircraft movements continue in the coastal area,
but jet fighter strength in the strait area appears to have re-
mained constant. On 14 October approximately 40 jet aircraft,
probably fighters, flew from Swatow to the Canton area. The
flight may have been another in the recent series of rotational
transfers or part of a round-robin training flight.
The Taiwan Defense Command believes that resupply of
the Chinmen garrison was in fact never a problem, and that the
Nationalist Government created panic about it in an attempt to
Involve the United States in its "never-to-die hope" of returning
to the mainland.
Press reports citing informed Nationalist sources in Taipei
state that a reduction of the size of the garrisons on the offshore
Islands might be possible should their defensive potential be
maintained by newer weapons and stronger fortifications.
The Nationalist Defense Ministry has announced that Nation-
alist planes have stopped reconnaissance flights over the China
mainland. On 15 October, however, four Nationalist aircraft
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penetrated the mainland briefly on what was called a recon-
naissance mission, and drew Communist fighter reaction.
The Nationalists said the incident was accidental and that
all parties involved were under disciplinary action.
16 Oct 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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1111,
USSR Asks Iran to Accept Voroshilov Visit
The Soviet Union is making overtures to the Iranian Gov-
ernment to permit a visit by President Voroshilov, but the
Shah has not reached a decision on the offer. The Shah is
diplomatically obligated to reciprocate for his trip to the USSR
in 1956. The Shah's current preoccupation with urgent domes-
tic affairs, the recent threatening Soviet military "maneuvers"
on Iran's northern borders, and the recent increase in the sharp-
ness of tone of bloc propaganda against his regime could com-
bine to cause him to postpone acceptance. Iranian security
authorities recently expressed concern over Soviet propaganda
against the Shah.
� The USSR would expect some propaganda gains from such a
visit. Voroshilov would probably stress the efforts the USSR
has made over the past several years to improve relations with
Iran, including agreements on border demarcation, reciprocal
transit rights, and joint study of irrigation and hydroelectric
potentials along the Araks and Atrek rivers. The highlight of
the visit would probably be a renewal of Soviet economic offers,
including large-scale assistance for industrial expansion.
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IL ASIA-AFRICA
Iraqi Regime Failing to Meet Problems
The American Embassy believes that three months after
the Iraqi revolution there is still no "government" in a West-
ern sense in Baghdad. While individual ministers make spo-
radic efforts to lay down policy lines and to draft new laws,
these remain paper exercises in the face of growing discon-
tent with the failure to fulfill promises made after the July
revolution. Although some immediate political problems ap-
pear to have been resolved by the departure of former Dep-
uty Premier Arif as ambassador to Bonn, other political
crises, seem likely, and economic problems are mounting. The
embassy feels that the weeks just ahead are critical.
The most obvious basis for discontent is economic stag-
nation. The regime's harassment of foreigners has led to an
exodus of foreign technicians and businessmen, while native
Iraqi commercial interests have been frightened by the leftist
tendencies of many cabinet members. The halt in the devel-
opment program is increasing unemployment. Reports indi-
cate that the cessation of economic activity, for which the
development program acted as a "pump primer," is being felt
throughout the country. Those who are unemployed now expect
the government to take care of them.
Prospects for improvement do not appear good. The em-
bassy considers that the Qasim regime lacks experience in
handling day-to-day problems of government Qasim appar-
ently is being advised primarily by members of the National
Democratic party who are inclined to discount the danger of
Communism for Iraq, while the embassy believes that the
Communists now are the greatest potential threat to the re-
gime's stability and existence.
CONFIDENTIAL
16 Oct 58 ��-�cwrrn Al IkIT t- rc GI I ucki cTIN
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Tunisia Breaks Diplomatic Relations With UAR
Tunisia's severance of formal diplomatic relations with
the UAR deepens the public rift opened on 11 October when
Tunisia criticized the Cairo government at a session of the
Arab League Council. Nasir now is likely to increase both
the volume and intensity of his propaganda assault on the-re-
gime of Tunisian President Bourguiba, and may also provide
increased assistance to Tunisian opposition elements such as
Salah ben Youssef, Bourguiba's exiled rival whose continued
presence in and patronage by Cairo precipitated the Tunisian
outburst.
UAR propaganda media have continued to assail the posi-
tion taken by Tunisia in the league and to discredit Bourguiba
as a "stooge for the imperialists," making a particular effort
to blame the United States for the Tunisian attitude. Bourguiba,
for his part, to retain domestic loyalty, has been differentiat-
ing between the general Arab cause and the objectives and
methods of Nasir and the UAR.
While Cairo has been emphasizing public expressions by
other Arab states of solidarity with the VAR in this dispute,
Bourguiba has also been moving, apparently with some suc-
cess, to counter the Egyptian efforts to keep Tunisia 'isolated
within the Arab world. A Tunisian special envoy sent to Rabat
to seek Moroccan backing has been cordially received, accord-
ing to Rabat radio, by the Moroccan King, who expressed his
"full and lasting support for Tunisia and its 'president." On the
basis of recent approaches to Algerian rebel leaders, the
Tunisians claim that the Algerians will also lathe end stand
by Tunisia and have agreed to act ag. "intermediaries" in. Cairo
for the Tunisians.
A Tunisian political leader close to Bourguiba on 14 Octo-
ber renewed Tunisia's earlier request for more American arms,
commenting: "We need arms now but more than anything we
need to be able to announce within the next few days that the
United States is standing behind its friend Bourguiba in his time
of need."
CONFIDENTIAL
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South Korea Threatens to Suspend Negotiations With Japan
Yiu Tab-ha, chief South Korean delegate in negotiations
to normalize relations with Japan, has threatened to break
off the talks again as a result of Tokyo's standing refusal
to recognize the area within the "Rhee Line" as Korean
territorial waters. Yiu's subsequent public accusation that
Japan is "insincere" in the negotiations has angered Prime
Minister Kishi and Foreign Minister Fujiyama and may
prompt Japan to abandon its conciliatory efforts to reach
a settlement
Japanese Foreign Ministry officials believe that Yiu
is acting under the direct orders and approval of President
Rhee in using the repeated threat of suspending negotiations
to force Japanese accession to all Korean demands.
The, American, Embassy in Tokyo comments that if
Seoul suspends the talks there will be a hardening of
Japanese public and government opinion toward South
Korea and a probable increase in pressure for repatriation,
over Seoul's objections, of Koreans in Japan who desire to
go to North Korea.- ,Resuniption 'Of large-sdale Korean
seizures of Japanese fishing vessels on the high seas would
probably result in demands for armed protection.
Kishi is anxious to avoid making a public issue of the
difficulties with South Korea. The Socialists would use
suspension of the negotiations as a peg for severe criticism
of Kishi's foreign policy. Many Japanese believe that a
major obstacle to a settlement with South Korea is Kishi's
failure to persuade the United States to exercise a moderating
influence on President Rhee's government.
16 Oct 58
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Indonesian Army Concerned Over Communist
Plans for "Peace Month"
The Indonesian Army is reported disturbed over Commu-
nist plans for a "peace month" beginning 15 October which is
to highlight the support Communists have given the govern-
ment in subduing the provincial dissidents, and may include
anti-Western demonstrations on such issues as atomic tests,
Lebanon, and Taiwan. Army officials refused several days
ago to approve the program drawn up by the Communist-
controlled Indonesian Peace Committee. Heretofore, the
Communists have retreated in the face of army disapproval,
but "peace month" has received so much publicity from the
Communist press that party leaders apparently feel obliged
to make at least a token effort to implement it. The army
would probably suppress any obvious preparations for large
Communist-inspired demonstrations,
Aside from the projected Communist exploitation of in-
ternal and international issues, the Peace Committee's plans
conflict with a "modest program" planned by the army for the
next month which will be highlighted by two important holidays--
Youth Day on 28 October and Heroes' Day on 10 November. The
army fears that "peace month" could overshadow its own pro-
gram. The Communists are again eXploiting President Sukarno's
popularity by inviting him to give a special address during the
month.
16 Oct 58 AppTOWEITo'r'Rere7s7 20i2670172-3 C069.973171
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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