CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/10/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02998377
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: October 1, 1958

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1 October 1958
"I" 1'4�' 59
CENTRAL
INTELLIGE\CE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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NEXT P,;:2;//z/iV DATE:
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RE-VIEWER:
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VA I.Ort�Nura wor as
1 OCTOBER 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait - Peiping moves jet
light bombers onto coastal airfield
near Chinmens; five submari
moved down to Shanghai area.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Iraq - Deputy Premier Arif dropped
from cabinet, sent to Bonn as am-
bassador.
Cairo pressing Iraq to conclude di-
rect arms deal with bloc; Baghdad
leaders holding back pending study.
%�31 koof
Jordanian premier fears harsh crack-
down on dissident elements might have
repercussions government could not
control. 0
Resentment of Diem's authoritarian
rule growing in South Vietnam. Some
reports say coup is planned shortly.
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III. THE WEST
0 Peruvian leftists call nationwide
mass meetings to exploit resent-
ment of US lead, zinc import quotas.
LATE ITEM
USSR - Two nuclear explosions on 30
Sept. at Novaya Zemlya in just over
two hours.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
1 October 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait situation: In the first known deployment
of Chinese Communist jet light bombers to the immediate
coastal area, at least 12 IL-28's on 30 September flew from
the Liencheng area to Huian, a coastal airfield located about
40 miles north of the Chinmens. On 30 September
five submarines normally base
at Tsingtao to be operating in the Shanghai area, using East
(Page 1) (Map)
ASIA-AFRICA
*Iraq: Premier Qasim has strengthened his position in
Iraq by dismissing pro-UAR Deputy Premier and Minister
of Interior Arif, as well as two more pro-UAR cabinet mem-
bers. Arif is bein sent ant of thp rniintry ac an-ihnoenrinw.
to West Germany.
UAR-Ira : Cairo is apparently trying to press Iraq
Into making an arms deal directly with the USSR. Iraqi
military authorities are still holding back and are� studying
the matter. Some arms have been furnished to Iraq in the
recdnt past by the UAR. (Page 3)
jordan: Extensive political maneuvering continues in
Jordan. Prime Minister Rifai feels that strong action against
dissident elements might have repercussions beyond the ability
of the government to control. He accordingly plans to arrest
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�
ti-s
'111ise
ttAisd
only a few of the more junior officers among those newly
imnlicatec in plotting against the government.
(Page 4)
South Vietnam: Undercurrents of discontent with
'?resident Diem's continuing dictatorial rule are a poten-
ial threat to his regime. The army, which on the whole
s considered loyal to Diem, has long contained elements
-eRcantful of political interference in army affairs0
a rightist army
3ourg against Diem is being planned to tam place soon.
(Page 5)
III. THE WEST
016-'
� Peru: A predominantly Communist-led group of labor
organizations is planning nationwide anti-US meetings for
2 October. At a 28 September meeting, union leaders urged
nationalization of the American-owned mines as a solution to
problems nosed by the recent US import quotas for lead and
zinc. (Page 6)
LATE ITEM
�*Two Soviet nuclear explosions: The Atomic Energy
Detection System has reported that two explosions occurred
at 0750 and 0955 Hours Zebra on 30 September, both in the
LThZemlatesti-
1 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF
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(Page 7)
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41114k
4 Piston fighter
>->.� Jet fighter
nnn, Communist troop I+ Piston light bomber
�"I'v strength
+ Jet light bomber
000 Nationalist troop
strength 4. Ground-attack
SELECTED AIRFIELDS INDICATED IN BOLD TYPE
Hengyang,
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Hankow.
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KAOCHI ' '9N M E N I C (
86,000
CHENGHAI Amoy
CANTON
� HUtNG Swatow NAN AO IS. .
PENGHOS
16,000
SOUTH CHINA SEA
0 STATUTE MILES 300
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8.4.61.0.11 1411.1 A
V41101
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Taiwan Strait Situation
At least 12 IL-28's probably subordinate to the 8th Air
Division flew on 30 September from the Liencheng area to
Huian airfield on the coast about 40 miles north of the Chin-
mens. These are the first Communist jet light bombers de-
ployed to any of the coastal airfields in the Taiwan Strait
area, which are extremely vulnerable to Chinese Nationalist
retaliatory action should the Nationalists decide on this
course. Since bombing operations could be carried out from
more protected rear-area bases and the deployment of these
bombers to Huian destroys the element of surprise which
would normally be expected if the Communists intend to carry
out bombing sorties, it appears that the move is designed to
provoke the Nationalists into retaliatory action.
Five submarines--two long-range and three short-range--
now are operating in the Shanghai area.
The other three,
moved to
Shanghai undetected.
by these North China Fleet vessels suggests
a deployment of extended duration. The shorter range boats op-
erating from Shanghai are within optimum operating range of
the Taiwan Strait.
Communist China shows increasing concern about heading
off any international demands for an immediate cease-fire with-
out significant concessions from the US. Premier Chou En-lai
on 30 September stated that the withdrawal of US forces rather
than the "trick" of a cease-fire is the key to eliminating tension
in the Taiwan Strait area. Chou said that if the US forces ignore
Peiping's warnings and extend "provocations" to the mainland,
"they will pull tighter and tighter the noose around their neck by
themselves." While he promised "punitive blows" against Nation-
alist forces, his concept of a "forceful answer" to the US was the
1 Oct 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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1.110
series of mass demonstrations publicized in the mainland news-
papers. Peiping's 18th warning was issued on the same day.
Mao Tse-tung has added his voice to Peiping's appeal for
international condemnation of the US. In a recent press "inter-
view," Mao declared that the United States is threatening peace
with "atomic warfare" and has alienated more than 90 percent
"of the people in the whole world."
Nationalist Premier Chen Cheng has now stated that the
supply situation is improved and if it could be solved, retal-
iatory attacks might be "unnecessary." He had previously in-
dicated a necessity for retaliatory action.
Chiang Kai-shek, in a 29 September press conference, re-
served the right to take unilateral action but indicated such action
would come only at the "crucial" moment when the "life or death
of... Chinmen was at stake."
West German officials are concerned over East German
claims that Berlin is as much a part of the East Zone as the
offshore islands are of Communist China, and are critical of
analogies between the offshore island situation and Berlin.
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%woo
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Iraq Cool Toward Cairo's Effort to Promote Arms Deal
WITE'55Tiet Union
Baghdad military authorities remain wary of Cairo's
efforts to promote an Iraqi arms deal with the Soviet
Union.
the office of UAR Armed Forces Commander Field
Marshal Amir advised the Iraqi military attach�n Cairo
that an unspecified quantity of arms was "ready for shipment
in the Russian ports." The Cairo authorities pressed the
Iraqis to decide at once whether to purchase these arms and
other equipment from the USSR. The Egyptians urged that if
the decision was affirmative, the Iraqi Government advise the
Soviet Embassy in Cairo immediately and consider sending
a committee to Moscow via Cairo to negotiate a contract. On
25 September, Baghdad cautioned its military attach�n Cairo
against discussing the matter, indicating that the subject was
still being studied in "great secrecy."
Further indication of Premier Qasim's desire to avoid
too close relations with Cairo pending stabilization of the po-
litical situation in Iraq is
the Iraqi ambassador to the UAR
had been unable to obtain a direct reply from Qasim to a re-
quest that he meet Nasir at a place of Qasim's choice.
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6.0 1.1 Ia. .L.1 a
Political Developments in Jordan
Extensive political maneuvering among Jordanian mili-
tary and civilian leaders is continuing. Prime Minister Rifai
feels that strong government action against dissident military
leaders, against whom further evidence has recently been un-
covered, might provoke reactions beyond the government's ability
to control. Only junior figures, therefore, are to be arrested
in a new roundup of security suspects, although senior officers--
including the deputy chief of staff and his brother--remain under
suspicion.
Rifai, who has made common cause with Deputy Chief of
Staff Shara, has expressed the belief that the leadership of
conspiratt)rial activity is civilian, and that the Arab Nationalist
and Jordanian Baath parties were the principal sources of
danger to the government. Rifai acknowledged that Court
Minister Majalli was maneuvering to obtain the premiership,
but expressed confidence that Majalli's efforts would fail.
New rumors, meanwhile, have spread in Amman and
Jerusalem that King Husayn is considering bringing nationalist
opposition representatives into the government, presumably
in a bid to avert antigovernment violence after withdrawal of
British troops. These unconfirmed reports were apparently
inspired by the King's unusual recent meeting with Abdul
Halim Nimr, National Socialist minister of interior and
defense in the 1956-57 cabinet of Suleiman Nabulsi.
NOFORN)
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a..1 la. ea 11.Lit a
Discontent in South Vietnam
Discontent with President Ngo Dinh Diem's continuing
dictatorial rule is a potential threat to the stability of the
South Vietnamese Government. Criticism of Diem's author-
itarianism is being heard increasingly among influential
Vietnamese, including members of his own cabinet, who
formerly supported the President unswervingly.
Diem is isolated from the public by his dependence on
a tight circle of advisers, headed by his brother Ngo Dinh
Nhu. Nhu, who is widely feared and hated, also heads the
elite Can Lao party, which controls all political activity in
Vietnam. The police-state methods of the Can Lao and the
activities of its covert branches have caused much resent-
ment within the government.
In this context of dissatisfaction, plans for an early
rightist coup by the army--possibly involving Diem's as-
sination--have been twice reported in some detai
While the army is considered IthOtOis
ernessarnbng some officers over political interference
and favoritism.
Saigon's preoccupation with internal security to the det-
riment of economic progress, coupled with heavy-handed
police measures, is also engendering resentment among the
masses. This plays into the hands of the Vietnamese Com-
munists who appear to be stepping up their clandestine ac-
tivities aimed at toppling Diem.
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1, LaL / IS IAS
III. THE WEST
Nationwide Anti-US Meetings Planned in Peru
Nationwide anti-US meetings have been scheduled in
Peru for 2 October by predominantly Communist-led labor
groups. Nine labor organizations joined in a communiqu�n
28 September announcing plans for the demonstrations. A
committee has been named to arrange a gathering in Lima
in the Plaza San Martin, which is near the US Embassy.
At a meeting on 28 September attended by 1,000 persons,
the head of the union in a central mining town urged
nationalization of the mines as a solution for the problem
posed by the recent US import quotas for lead and zinc.
The largest mining enterprise in Peru is the American-
owned Cerro de Pasco Company.
The chief of the leftist but non-Communist APRA party
told an officer of the American Embassy that APRA and the
APRA-linked leadership of the national labor confederation
hope to exert a restraining influence on the protest meetings.
However, American Ambassador Achilles doubts that APRA
can control the situation.
CONFIDENTIAL
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11.116e %LI
Noe �4,00
LATE ITEM
Two Nuclear Explosions at Novaya Zemlya
The Atomic Energy Detection System has reported that
two explosions occurred at 0750 and 0955 Hours Zebra on
30 September, both in the vicinity of the Novaya Zemlya test
site. Signals from both explosions have been reported by
acoustic, seismic, and electromagnetic stations. A prelim-
inary estimate of the yield of the first shot is in the range of
700 to 2,000 KT, with the most probable value being about
1,000 KT.� For the second shot, the range is estimated at
700 to 7,000 KT, with the most probable value being about
2,000 KT. Nuclear confirmation cannot be expected prior to
3 October, and some difficulty may occur in separating the de-
bris from the two events.
This is the third occasion in 1958 on which the Soviet
Union has conducted two tests in a single day. On 27 Febru-
ary two tests were conducted within a three-hour period in the
Novaya Zemlya, area, and on March tests occurred at Novaya
Zemlya and at the Semipalatinsk proving grounds within an hour.
The events of 30 September bring the total number of
Soviet nuclear tests to 57, nine of which have been held at the
Novaya Zemlya proving grounds, 42 at Semipalatinsk proving
grounds, and the remainder at other locations within the Soviet
Union.
It is expected that the Soviet Union will conduct nuclear
testing at a rapid pace, probably until 31 October, when nego-
tiations will begin at Geneva on implementation of a nuclear
or torium.
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I A! L4L I i 1-11.4
%Me s Nor
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander,in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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