CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/04/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02995595
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: April 8, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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8 April 1956
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DOCUtvINT NO.
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AUTH: H 7
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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'two
CONTENTS
1. USSR MAYPLANREDUCTION OF TROOPS IN EAST
GERMAN (page 3).
2. PRO-SOVIET BURMESE AMBASSADOR IN MOSCOW TO
BECOME PRIME MINISTER'S SECRETARY
(page 4).
3. ICELANDIC GOVERNMENT WEIGHS DECISION ON NATO
BAS I page 5).
40 NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN CEYLON
8 Apr 56
:page 6
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 8)
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. USSR MAY PLAN REDUCTION OF TROOPS IN
EAST GERMANY
"Usually well-informed political circles
in East Berlin" are predicting that Soviet
troops will be withdrawn from East Germany
by stages throughout the year, according to the West German
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The timing would depend on
how quickly the East German armed forces are established.
East Berlin sources were quoted as saying
that East Germany would keep its contingents small and rely
primarily for defense on the Warsaw treaty, which provides
for assistance from the Orbit in case of attack. They said the
withdrawal of Soviet troops would put the Western powers with
troops in West Germany politically on the defensive and would
make it clear that East Germany is no longer an occupied coun-
try without sovereignty, thereby improving prospects for a
rapprochement between the two German states.
Comment The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is a
reliable newspaper, and the author of this
story has good sources in the East and has frequently proved
to be accurate. In the present instance, however, the story
may be aimed at encouraging the USSR to take a step that would
facilitate rapprochement between the two Germanies. The cred-
ibility of the story is enhanced by a suggestion in the new Soviet
disarmament plan that the four powers with troops in Germany
"take urgent steps to reduce those forces to a figure to be de-
termined by each of them at its own discretion." Although the
USSR has often proposed withdrawal of all troops from Germany
and at the November foreign ministers meeting suggested a
50-percent reduction, this latest proposal is the first one which
hints at a unilateral reduction
The main purpose of a reduction of Soviet
troops would be to inspire demands for a reduction of Ameri-
can forces in Europe, The USSR could substantially reduce its
400,000 ground force troops in East Germany without endanger-
ing its control of the zone, even though no rapid build-up of
East German armed strength is likely.
8 Apr 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin
Page 3
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*it
2. PRO-SOVIET BURMESE AMBASSADOR IN MOSCOW TO
BECOME PRIME MINISTER'S SECRETARY
Prime Minister Nu has appointed U Ohn,
the Burmese ambassador in Moscow, to
be his personal secretary.
vine action was approvea by the cabinet on 3 April,
despite the grave reservations of some members concerning
Ohn's well-known pro-Soviet bias.
Comment U Ohn has never concealed his pro-Commu-
nist inclinations, which have been repeatedly
demonstrated by his behavior in Moscow. In contrast, U Thant--
a devout Buddhist--is an older, more mature person who has
been regarded as an important moderating influence on the im-
pulsive premier.
U Ohn's new appointment will put him in a
position to influence Nu. An unusually large number of high-
level decisions are left to the prime minister because his col-
leagues either cannot reach a general agreement or Wish to
avoid responsibility.
Nu probably feels that U Ohn's experience
in Moscow will be helpful in handling the increasing number of
contacts with Soviet officials in Rangoon.
8 Apr 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4
Q1OPPL-171
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3, ICELANDIC GOVERNMENT WEIGHS DECISION ON
NATO BASE
celandic prime minister Thors told
merican ambassador Mucci� on
April that he did not know whether
ny action would be taken between now
an une par iamentar_y elections to implement par-
liament's 28 March resolution calling for the withdrawal
of American troops from the NATO air base at Keflavik.
He added that since the present Conservative-Progressive
coalition government is acting only in a caretaker capacity,
he doubts whether he would be able to stop Foreign Minister
Gudmundsson if he should press for a revision of the 1951
agreement.
In a separate conversation with the am-
bassador on 6 April, Foreign Minister Gudmundsson said
that since the matter is so serious and complicated he is
urging that the advice of "experts" be sought to prepare
Iceland's position before any move is made. He intends to
discuss the question with Norwegian and Danish foreign
ministers Lange and Hansen at the Nordic foreign minis-
ters meeting in Copenhagen on 16 April.
Comment According to informed opinion in Iceland,
Gudmundsson's Progressive Party ini-
tiated the parliamentary resolution largely as a political ma,-
neuver. The small National Defense Party, which opposes
the NATO base, made inroads into Progressive strength in
the 1953 parliamentary elections.
Lange and Hansen are likely to urge
moderation on Gudmundsson's part, but domestic political
considerations might force him to press for implementation
of the resolution
8 Apr 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5
L' -10 L'ill
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4. NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN CEYLON
S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike's united front
continued to make major gains on 7 April,
the second day of Ceylon's national elec-
tion, winning 14 out of the 23 seats con-
tested. The election total for seats in
the lower house of parliament now stands:
united front 42, Trotskyite Nava Lanka
Sama Samaja Party 11, United National
unists 2, and independents 2. The final 30
out of the total of 95 seats will be contested on 10 April
The united front's margin of victory now
seems likely to be so large that Governor General Goonetilleke
could not ask the present prime minister, Sir John Kotelawala,
to form a minority government without creating serious unrest
on the island. Bandaranaike, therefore, appears almost cer-
tain to be the next prime minister.
Ceylon's domestic policy under Bandaranaike
would probably become strongly socialistic and its foreign pol-
icy neutralist. Whatever caution Bandaranaike may be inclined
to observe as a result of stock market declines in tea and rub-
ber, on which Ceylon's economy depends, might well be dissi-
pated by attractive economic offers from the Sino-Soviet bloc.
Bandaranaike himself stated on 6 April that Ceylon probably
would become a republic in the relatively near future. He added
that he favored establishing relations with Communist China and
the USSR, though he hoped to continue friendly relations with the
United States and would accept economic aid from all countries.
There is a possibility that the united front
will win enough seats on 10 April to give it an absolute majority
in the lower house, though at least half of the seats contested on
10 April may go to Tamil parties, Tamil-speaking independents,
and Communists. This may not assure Bandaranaike firm control
8 Apr 56
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411 �7151.
of parliament, however, because his own Sri Lanka Freedom
Party will probably remain a minority and the loyalty of the
Trotskyite Viplavikara Lanka Sama Samajists and others in
his united front is uncertain.
Though the Communists have won only
two seats in the first two days of the election, they will prob-
ably increase their strength on the third day, when north Cey-
lonese constituencies, in which they have been campaigning
intensively, register their votes. Ceylon's two Trotskyite
parties have already doubled the number of seats they held in
the last parliament. The far left may therefore control a quar-
ter of the total number of seats when the elections are over and,
with Tamil support from northern Ceylon, constitute a formid-
able body.
8 Apr 56
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V
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 2300, 8 April)
Israel has charged that on the night of
.7 April Egyptian "commandos" carried out a series of attacks
on Israeli settlements, on pedestrians on the highway, and on
military and civilian vehicles at several points within 15 miles
of the northern edge of the Gaza strip. Casualties are given as
four Israeli dead and 15 wounded. Israel also charged on 7 April
that its fishermen on Lake Tiberias were fired at from the Syrian
shore. Two Jordanians and two Israelis were reported killed in
a clash six miles inside Jordan. (Press)
Following the revival of Egyptian-sponsored
terrorist activity on 7 and 8 April, Israel and Egypt are reinforc-
ing their positions along the Egyptian-Israeli frontier, according
to information received by Ambassador Byroade in Cairo.
Ambassador Byroade believes that if Israeli
troops repeat their tactics of retaliation in force, Egyptian forces
will do the same and a full-scale war would then be imminent.
Prime Minister Nasr, Byroade said, is under strong pressure
at home and from the other Arab states and would probably not
be able to exercise restraint in the face of another heavy Israeli
attack like that at Khan Yunis.
Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion told
General Burns on 8 April that if Israel were to agree to another
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cease-fire, unreserved assurances must be obtained from
Egypt that it would refrain from all hostile acts and would
conform to the general armistice agreement. Ben-Gurion
said he would wait until noon Tuesday for such assurances,
failing which Israel would rnPrve liberty of action. (SECRET)
UN truce supervisor tienerai zurns con-
siders the Egyptians responsible for initiating the Gaza inci-
dents and reprisals. The Israelis, Burns stated, initially had
a strong case but had later "thrown it away." He added that he
did not believe the Israeli attack on civilians was a result of
any high level policy decision; the Israelis had "simply blun-;
ripred into the situation" through their eageriness to retaliate.
8 Apr 56
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OP SECRET
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