CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/31

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02994004
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 31, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: T$ 8 C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20 0,9
AUTFI: HR 70-2
DATE: earheir,g_ REVIEWER;
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1, Chinese Communist troop withdrawal from Korea seen unlikely
(page 3).
2. Six more TU-4's apparently assigned to the Chinese Communist
air force (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French look for new attack on Dien Bien Phu by 5 April (page 4).
4. Deterioration of Burmese-Thai relations noted (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Israeli armed forces seen responsible for attack on Nahhalin
(page 5).
6. Nasr may try to meet British condition for renewing Suez
negotiations (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Alerting of Guatemalan army against imminent "invasion"
reported (page 6).
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FAR EAST
1. Chinese Communist troop withdrawal from Korea seen unlikely:
The American consul general at Hong Kong
believes that the Chinese Communists are
unlikely to offer to remove their troops from
Korea in return for the withdrawal of American
forces. Withdrawal of both Chinese and UN
forces would create a military vacuum which Rhee might, exploit to
attack North Korea. The Communists think they could cope with any
South Korean attack, but fear that if the South Koreans should be
threatened with defeat, the United States would again intervene. This
in turn would lead to the resumption of an inconclusive war, which the
Communists wish to avoid.
The consul general concludes that, while the
Communists at Geneva may represent troop withdrawal as a major
objective, they would be likely to attach conditions unacceptable to
the United States.
Comment: This analysis is generally sup-
ported by the course of last year's truce talks, in which the Communists
insisted on American guarantees of South Korean observance of the truce.
There is an outside chance of a Chinese troop withdrawal, on the assump-
tion that South Korean president Rhee would lose American support in
any unilateral operation against North Korea or that the United States
would be isolated from its allies in support of Rhee. However, the
Communists apparently wish to avoid the risk of new hostilities.
2. Six more TU-4's apparently assigned to the Chinese Communist air force:
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Comment: The transfer of additional TU-4's
to Communist China suggests a Sino-Soviet plan to build up the long-
range bombing strength of Peiping's air force. If patterned after
Soviet TU-4 regiments, the 4th Independent Regiment has an authorized
strength of 32 planes.
The training program, which began with the
arrival of the first ten TU-4's at Shihchiachuang 13 months ago, has
reflected steadily increased proficiency and has included bombing
missions ranging up to 1,100 miles, instrument flying and night
operations.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French look for new attack on Dien Bien Phu by 5 April:
The American embassy in Saigon reports
t he French now believe a new major
assault on Dien Bien Phu will be launched
by 5 April. The nights will be completely
dark after 2 April. The main defensive
positions are now completely surrounded
by enemy trenches and the southern re-
doubt, Isabelle, is almost encircled.
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Meanwhile, the army attach�eports that
the French attack on a regiment of the 308th Division west of their
defenses on 28 March was made by two paratroop battalions. The
enemy suffered 400 killed and1,000 wounded. Approximately 30
prisoners were taken. French casualties numbered 100 killed and
wounded.
4. Deterioration of Burmese-Thai relations noted:
Ambassador Sebald in Rangoon reports that
during his recent visit to Bangkok the Thai
foreign minister said Thailand's relations
with Burma were "at an all-time low." The
Thai official was disturbed by reports that the Burmese government
is pro-Communist and is actively cooperating with Peiping.
Sebald comments that the Burmese are also
suspicious of Bangkok. They are convinced that the Thai are engaged
in smuggling operations in collusion with the Karen insurgents and
the Chinese Nationalists in Burma.
Comment: Relations between Burma and
Thailand, never cordial, have been aggravated recently by border
incidents arising from Burmese army operations against the Chinese
Nationalist guerrillas.
The mutual and easily aroused suspicions
between these two countries, whose interests are essentially the
same, are illustrative of the obstacles facing the development of
effective regional cooperation in Southeast Asia.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Israeli armed forces seen responsible for attack on Nahlialirr
The American army attach�n Amman
believes Israeli armed forces planned
and executed the raid on the Jordanian
v illage of Nahhalin on 28 March.
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The attach�after visiting Nahhalin, says
the raid has the earmarks of a military operation carried out by
trained military personnel. The attack was patterned on previous
6. Nasr may try to meet British condition for renewing Suez negotiations:
Colonel Nasr intends to try immediately to
meet the British conditiOn that order be
restored in the canal area before further
negotiations can be held regarding the
Suez base
Nasr will also attempt to play down the
Revolutionary Command Council's new slogan that it must remain
in power "until the enemy is driven from the country." The situation,
however, requires that he make at least some use of the slogan,
which was originated by junior officers.
Comment: Nasr has previously indicated
his desire for a quick Suez settlement in the hope of strengthening
his political position. Accordingly, Nasr is likely, as soon as the
council succeeds in firmly re-establishing its control, to attempt to
improve relations with Britain by suppressing terrorism in the
canal zone.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Alerting of Guatemalan army against imminent "invasion" reported:
Commanding officers of army garrisons
and the police in Guatemala City have been
warned by the presidential office that an
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"invasion" of Guatemala is expected by 5 April
a tightening of internal security has been
ordered for the army garrisons.
Comment: The tightening of security could
be designed to control potential antigovernment moves within the army.
According to the American military attach�n Guatemala, the loyalty
of some top army officers to the Arbenz regime is wavering because
of their concern over the growth of Communist strength in Guatemala.
The Guatemalan government has in the past
used foreign "plots" to rally popular support and to justify repressive
domestic policies.
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