CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993998
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 19, 1954

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DATE: 2.70817.-9.� REVIEWER: -
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2O Q3
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19 March 1954
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Plan for large copper diversion to Orbit reported (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Viet Minh believed to want direct contact with French (page 4).
3. Viet Minh continuing artillery barrage (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Trade with Orbit may be major topic at South Asian premier&
conference (page 5).
5. Communists appear excluded from Travancore government
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Shah wants to join Turkish-Pakistani pact (page 6).
7. Britain proposes complete withdrawal of troops from Suez base
(page 7).
8. Nagib reported to favor close relations with United States (page 7).
9. Moroccan nationalist appointed to Indonesian UN delegation (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Effective CSC anticartel measures before 1955 doubtful (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. Plan for large copper diversion to Orbit reported:
"Big time" operators in New York,
London, Zurich, and Stockholm are
conspiring to deliver 100,000 tons of
Latin American copper to the Soviet
Orbit, according to information given the American embassy in
deal, said that the local representative of "the Chilean copper
interests" was involved. He stated 20,000 tons would be diverted
in Sweden and that the rest would be handled from or through
Switzerland.
American COCOM officials in Paris
state that 100,000 tons seems an "incredible" volume for a single
diversion effort. They believe that if such a deal is contemplated,
the channels developed last year by the former Rumanian commer-
cial attach�n Bern might be used for at least part of it.
Comment: Officials of the Chilean
government, which has been negotiating for the sale of 100,000
tons of copper to the United States government, reacted skeptically
to this information. Chile has insisted that despite increasing
domestic pressure it will not allow copper sales to the Orbit.
This and other recent reports of
pending transshipment deals may derive from offers to the Orbit
by traders who believe that the delay in the US-Chilean negotiations
will greatly increase the amount of copper available.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Viet Minh believed to want direct contact with French:
French officials in Saigon believe the
Viet Minh is eager to make direct
contact with the French government
before the opening of the Geneva con-
ference and thus obtain de facto recognition. It hopes thereby to
undermine French-American relations and further weaken the Bao
Dai government.
In support of this belief, they also
point out that Orbit propaganda is now stressing the need for a
truce in Indochina prior to the conference.
3. Viet Minh continuing artillery barrage:
A senior French official in Saigon,
pointing to the continuation of the
Viet Minh artillery barrage on Dien
Bien Phu on 18 March, predicted
that the enemy would renew mass attacks despite heavy losses.
He said that the situation remains serious.
Comment:
report that the Viet Minh suffered more than 4,000 casualties in
taking two French strong points between 13 and 15 March. French
Union casualties in these actions totaled about 1,400. Casualties
subsequently incurred through air and artillery attacks cannot yet
be accurately estimated.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Trade with Orbit may be major topic at South Asian premiers'
conference:
onesia an ey on
The problem of disposing of surplus
commodities will be a major topic this
spring at the Ceylon conference of the
premiers of India, Pakistan, Burma,
Indonesia, Burma and Ceylon
are reportedly preparing proposals for expanding trade with Com-
munist countries. The conference is expected to outline a general
policy with regard to such trade.
Comment: This conference, first pro-
posed in early December for the discussion of mutual problems, has
no fixed agenda.
Pressure to find new markets is mounting
as a result of the persistent buyers' market in the area's principal
commodities. All participants except Pakistan have or are negotiating
trade agreements with Orbit countries.
5. Communists appear excluded from Travancore government:
Any Communist bid to form a new cabinet
in the south-Indian state of Travancore-
Cochin is now foredoomed to failure, accord-
ing to the American consulate general in
Madras. The Praja Socialist Party, which holds the balance of power
in the state assembly as a result of elections in late February, has de-
cided to refuse to support a leftist coalition government. The Congress
Party has announced its willingness to support a Praja Socialist govern-
ment.
The Socialist leaders reportedly hope that,
once in power, they can institute "mass appeal" reforms which will
counteract Communist propaganda.
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Comment: The support of the Congress
Party, the largest single unit in the assembly, will relieve the Praja
Socialists at least temporarily of their dependence on Communist or
other leftist votes. It is doubtful, however, that the Socialists will
have a strong enough position in the government to allow them to
present a program which would steal much thunder from the Commu-
nists.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Shah wants to join Turkish-Pakistani pact:
Admiral Wright, commander in chief of
the Eastern Atlantic-Mediterranean,
reported that in an interview in Tehran
the shah told him that he has "an urgent
and burningdesire" to become a partner in the Turkish-Pakistani
pact. Wright also said that the shah emphasized the need to build
up Iran's army to enable it to participate effectively.
The army apparently wants to open mili-
tary talks with Iraq, although Iran has long been cool toward that
country as British-dominated.
Comment: The shah's statements con-
trast with Foreign Minister Entezam's initial reaction to the Turkish-
Pakistani agreement and the latter's public announcement on 16 March
that Iran would not enter any Middle East pact. Entezam probably
fears a breakdown in current Iranian-Soviet negotiations on border
and financial problems.
The shah apparently feels that the American
aid he has been seeking to build a large and modern army can be obtained
only by participating in a regional defense arrangement.
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L.IXE.,
7. Britain proposes complete withdrawal of troops from Suez base:
Under a new plan approved by the British
cabinet on 15 March, all British troops
would be evacuated from the Suez base
within approximately two years and the
base would be maintained by civilian contractors paid by Egypt.
Britain would have the right to reoccupy the base in case of an
attack on an Arab state or Turkey, and to consult with Egypt in
case of a threatened attack on any of those states or Iran. This
agreement would be valid for 20 years.
Britain hopes the United States will be-
come associated with the agreement through an Egyptian invitation
to use the base and to join Britain in selecting the contractors.
The Egyptians will also be asked to give
assurances that they will observe the spirit as well as the terms of
the Anglo-Egyptian agreement on the Sudan.
Comment: In abandoning its insistence
that uniformed British technicians be used to man the base, Britain
reveals its strong desire to improve relations with Egypt and its
apparent realization that the future use of the base must be assured
now.
Egypt may be reluctant to resume lengthy
negotiations, and suspicious of any British proposals calling for a
20-year agreement. The provisions concerning contract labor, par-
ticularly that on payment, may also cause difficulties.
8. Nagib reported to favor close relations with United States:
the recent Egyptian
crisis arose from General Nagib's refusal to
consent to the "extortion game which the
extremist elements of the Revolutionary
ommand Councilwished to undertake toward the Western countries"
by threatening closer relations with the Soviet Union.
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Nagib's return
to power has strengthened the "idea of rapprochement with America."
elder statesman All Maher had convinced Nagib of the
necessity of ending the military dictatorship and returning to parlia-
mentary government in order to gain American economic and military
assistance.
there was
serious danger in an attempt to hold elections in Egypt under present
conditions. "it is quite probable that the extremist
organizations would gain a majority."
9. Moroccan nationalist appointed to Indonesian UN delegation:
A member of the French Moroccan
nationalist party, Istiqlal, has been
appointed "technical counselor" to the
Indonesian delegation to the United
Nations
The French Foreign Ministry ordered its
ambassador in Djakarta on 13 February
o protest e appointment and request that it be rescinded.
Comment: Indonesia apparently ignored
the French demarche. President Sukarno promised the secretary
general of the Tunisian Neo-Destour party on 16 March that his
country would continue to support the "Tunisian people's independence
struggle."
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Pakistan was the first member of the anti-
colonial Arab-Asian bloc to include a North African nationalist in its
UN delegation. Anticolonialism is one of the few issues in the UN on
which the Moslem and Asian peoples are generally agreed.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Effective CSC anticartel measures before 1955 doubtful:
In order to reach agreement on a reduction
In coal prices, the High Authority of the
European Coal-Steel Community agreed to
consult with the West Germans over the
next few months concerning the future of the Joint Coal Sales Organi-
zation of the Ruhr. This decision, in the opinion of Ambassador Bruce,
makes doubtful any effective action against coal sales cartels within the
community before the end of the year.
The decision resulted from a bargain between
the French and West German governments on prices and restrictive
practices, The French
representatives were also anxious to avoid increasing industry's opposi-
tion to European integration.
Comment: This is a critical defeat for High
Authority president Monnet and will tend to disillusion the supporters of
European integration.
Monnet's proposal to outlaw the major coal
sales cartels within the CSC area had been considered the most politi-
cally feasible part of his anticartel program.
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