CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993997
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 20, 1954

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20 March 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENTNO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ie
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS CHANGED TO: TS S 0 '-
NEXT REVIEW DATE .POil
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE 2.1.4,622 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Bohlen analyzes Soviet pre-Geneva maneuvers (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. South Korean press reports government selecting Geneva delegates
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Vietnam reported demanding representation at Geneva (page 4).
4. Vietnamese official wants US to back no-surrender policy (page 4).
5. Burmese Communists and Karens planning high-level conference
(page 5).
6. Communists may have ordered surrender of Indonesian insurgents
(page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
7. Major Indian cabinet changes reported impending (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Arab-Israeli tension mounts (page 6).
9. Rift widening between Iraq and Egypt over Turkish-Pakistani pact
(page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Comment on Polish party and government reshuffle (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
11. French leak secret "American timetable" on EDC (page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
12. Argentina may support anti-Communist resolution at Caracas (page 9).
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INL: A.
GENERAL
1. Bohlen analyzes Soviet pre-Geneva maneuvers:
Ambassador Bohlen believes that Moscow
is showing great sensitivity on the question
of China's status at Geneva. This was re-
vealed by its unusually swift reaction to
Secretary Dulles' statement on 16 March that the Soviets were stalling
and suggesting that there were differences between the Soviets and Chi-
nese on Geneva arrangements. Bohlen argues that one of the Foreign
Ministry's motives in announcing his interview with Deputy Foreign
Minister Kuznetsov was to emphasize that Communist China had been
consulted and had given its assent.
Bohlen further suggests that this development
"confirms the fact" of Sino-Soviet difficulties and reflects a Soviet
attempt to move gradually toward the concept of a five-power conference
with a special status for China.
Comment: Statements of Soviet officials
and propaganda since Berlin have attempted to disguise the fact that
the agreement reached at Berlin falls far short of Molotov's proposal
for a five-power conference. The omission of any mention of consulta-
tions with North Korea, and the report that both the Chinese and Soviet
delegations will consist of 200 persons, also reflect Moscow's efforts
to confer great-power status on Peiping.
Available intelligence does not support the
thesis that Moscow and Peiping are having difficulties over conference
arrangements or are seeking to delay the Geneva conference.
FAR EAST
2. South Korean press reports government selecting Geneva delegates:
A South Korean newspaper, the Taegu
Shinmun, reported on 3 March that the
government was engaged in selecting
approximately 12 persons for its delegation to Geneva. The paper
identified the source as a high-ranking South Korean official.
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Comment: A report in late February,
stated that President Rhee had selected
William Glenn as the American adviser, to the South Korean delega-
tion. These are the only two reports noted to date that South Korea
is making plans to attend.
In view of Rhee's fear that Korea will be
abandoned at Geneva, and his sensitivity over foreign "interference"
with Korean affairs, South Korea will probably send a delegation
regardless of the outcome of the current negotiations with the United
States.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Vietnam reported demanding representation at Geneva:
Vietnamese premier Buu Loc, now in Paris,
has insisted that the Associated States be
represented "as interested parties" at the
Geneva conference,/
Meanwhile, current French-Vietnamese
negotiations in Paris are stalled over Buu Loc's demand for a French
declaration of Vietnam's independence, to precede a Vietnamese declara-
tion of adherence to the French Union. French foreign minister Bidault
wants both declarations issued simultaneously.
Comment: Pending the outcome of the Paris
negotiations, Vietnam has taken no public position on attending the con-
ference. French Foreign Ministry spokesmen oppose having the Asso-
ciated States at Geneva since their attendance would provide the Commu-
nists with a justification for inviting the Viet Minh.
4. Vietnamese official wants US to back no-surrender policy:
Governor Tri of Tonkin told the American
consul in Hanoi that most persons with whom
he is in contact share his "profound discour-
agement" with the turn which French-Vietnamese
discussions in Paris are taking.
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Tri�said that without a French affirmation
of real Vietnamese independence, the Buu Loc government will be un-
able to take a firm stand against surrender to the Viet Mirth�whether
open or disguised. He added that United States support was essential
to prevent any sellout at Geneva, or elsewhere.
Comment: In insisting on independence and
American, as distinct from French, backing against the Viet Minh, Tri
is expressing views long held by most non-Communist Vietnamese.
5. Burmese Communists and Karens planning high-level conference:
Comment: The Karens in eastern Burma,
the country's largest insurgent group, have repeatedly rebuffed Com=
munist efforts to promote an alliance. They appear to have changed
their attitude because of military pressure from government forces
and the evacuation of Chinese Nationalist troops, with whom they had.
maintained a working relationship.
6. Communists may have ordered surrender of Indonesian insurgents:
The American embassy in Djakarta reports
that 164 members of the "Bamboo Spears,"
a Communist-oriented guerrilla force and
the second-largest insurgent group in West
Java, surrendered on 17 March. The Indonesian army commander in
the area said this was the largest surrender to date and that the strength
of the "Bamboo Spears" has been reduced by 80 percent as a result of
this and other surrenders.
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The embassy speculates that such surrenders
may be ordered by the Indonesian Communist Party to strengthen its de-
mands for stronger government action against the Darul Islam.
Comment: This course would be consistent
with the current Communist policy of cooperating with the� Leftist Indo-
nesian government. The Communists stand to lose no military potential,
since the surrendered personnel could be absorbed by a Communist-
controlled veterans organization which is openly carrying on paramilitary
training. The defense minister is on record as favoring the issue of arms
to this group to help it fight the Darul Islam.
SOUTH ASIA
7. Major Indian cabinet changes reported impending:
Prime Minister Nehru is pressing Food and
Agriculture Minister Raft Ahmed Kidwai to
assume the defense portfolio,
Nehru also plans to replace Finance Minister
Deshmukh with Chief Minister Pant of Uttar Pradesh. Nehru is said to
regard Deshmukh as being too pro-Western and "in the pockets of the
British and Americans."
Comment: The dismissal of Deshmukh
would remove a moderating w----1T-g--'elierally pro-Western force from the
cabinet, and give freer play to the nationalistic and anti-Western Kidwai,
who already exercises strong influence on Nehru.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Arab-Israeli tension mounts:
The Israeli government under the moderate
leadership of Prime Minister Moshe Sharett,
is unlikely to initiate immediate major
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retaliatory action against either Syria or
Jordan for alleged recent acts of aggression.
This seems clear despite strong pressure
from extremists, certain elements within
the army and the public generally for such
action.
Neither Jordan nor Syria wants to reopen
hostilities with Israel. Jordan, according to Ambassador Mallory in
Amman, fully recognizes its military inferiority. The new caretaker
government of Syria does not want to break its armistice agreement
with Israel, according to Ambassador Moose in Damascus.
Comment: While restraining influences
on both sides are likely to prevent a major outbreak of hostilities,
they cannot prevent mounting diplomatic and propaganda warfare.
Israel is already using the current tension as an argument against
American military aid to any Arab state. Jordan will persist in its
refusal to hold high-level armistice talks with Israel, and the Syrian
government will strengthen itself by a strong anti-Israeli position.
9. Rift widening between Iraq and Egypt over Turkish-Pakistani pact:
Prime Minister jamali warned Egypt,
apparently on 17 March, that he would
open a "cold war" if Egyptian radio attacks
on Iraq's alleged negotiations with Pakistan
and other non-Arab states were not stopped within three days. Jamali
said he would accuse the radio station of being pro-Israel and pro-
Communist.
Comment: Relations between Egypt and
Iraq, traditional rivals for leadership of the Arab states, have cooled
noticeably in recent weeks. Iraq has been promoting an Arab federa-
tion plan and showing increasing independence of the Egyptian-dominated
Arab League.
Egyptian attacks on Iraq are likely to encour-
age similar criticism from other Arab countries, particularly Saudi
Arabia. This, along with mounting internal opposition in Iraq to par-
ticipation in a foreign military alliance, makes it increasingly difficult
for jamali to align himself with the West.
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EASTERN EUROPE
10. Comment on Polish party and government reshuffle:
The resignation of Bierut as premier does
not significantly alter the power structure
In Poland. He remains first secretary and thus
head of the party. The change in Poland is in line with current Orbit
policy emphasizing collective leadership by separating the leadership
of the party and government.
In the Polish reshuffle the post of party
chairman was dropped and one member of the politburo was replaced.
The size of the secretariat has been reduced to four members, none
of whom occupies a position in the government.
The new premier, Cyrankiewicz, a former
Socialist and a member of the politburo of the Communist Party, was
premier until November 1952, when the government was last reorganized.
WESTERN EUROPE
11. French leak secret "American timetable" on EDC:
American
embassy memorandum establishing a "time-
table for everything the French must do" to
bring about early EDC ratification had been
leaked, creating "confusion and a certain
amount of resentment."
Ambassador Bruce believes that certain
French government officials deliberately
disseminated the document to journalists as well as to political oppo-
nents of EDC. He states that the French government is itself to blame
In case of postponement of the EDC debate and is seeking an excuse to
shift the onus to the Socialist Party and to the American, British and
West German governments.
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The memorandum, according to Bruce, was
a working document to show how United States assurances would fit into
the program of measures of interested nations to make possible a debate
and vote on EDC before the Easter holidays.
Comment: This further decreases the likeli-
hood that Laniel will be able to adhere to his schedule for EDC ratification.
The schedule provided for starting debate in the National Assembly before
the Easter recess.
LATIN AMERICA
12. Argentina may support anti-Communist resolution at Caracas:
Comment: The anti-Communist resolution
was passed in committee on 13 March by a 17-to-1 vote. Argentina and
Mexico abstained, however, insisting that the text did not provide ade-
quate safeguards against foreign intervention in national affairs. Guatemala
cast the only negative vote.
The Argentine chief of protocol told Ambassador
Nufer on 17 March that Argentina might support the resolution in plenary
session. At that time any country may note reservations to its approval
� of the resolution. Mexican support, even with reservations, remains
highly doubtful.
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