CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/03/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993991
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 12, 1954

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3.5(c)
12 March :1954 3.3(h)(2)
Copy No. 8 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. ..vt
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 2.,aej7.-9 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Magsaysay wins out over Nacionalista old guard on foreign policy
dispute (page 3).
3, French Assembly may demand talks with Viet Minh if Geneva
conference fails (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Israel intensifies attack on US arms aid to Arab states (page 5).
5. Nasr anxious for early Suez settlement (page 5).
LATIN AMERICA
6. Armed conflict reportedly threatens in Ecuador-Peru dispute
(page 6).
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FAR EAST
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Magsaysay wins out over Nacionalista old guard on foreign policy
dispute:
The endorsement by most Filipino congres-
sional leaders of President Magsaysay's
foreign policy statement on 10 March, which
stressed the Communist threat to Asia, is
seen as a complete victory over the old
guard of the Nacionalista Party, which stands for an "Asia for Asians"
policy.
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his
development is a major setback to the ultranationalistic force led by
Senator Recto, who can be expected to counterattack sharply, probably
in a manner designed to embarrass both Magsaysay and the United
States,
Comment: Senator Recto has already
publicly denounced the Magsaysay statement for being "watered down
to appease certain pressure groups." Vice President Garcia, who is
also foreign minister, has announced that the Foreign Ministry would
continue to espouse the "Asia for Asians" doctrine.
Although friction between Magsaysay and
powerful Nacionalista leaders has been mounting for some time, the
divergence over foreign policy has made this the first significant test
of their respective strengths. The outcome will determine the extent
to which Magsaysay will be able to guide the policies of the Philippine
government.
3. French Assembly may demand talks with Viet Minh if Geneva conference
fails:
According to the American embassy in Paris,
the recent Indochina debate in the French
National Assembly made it clear that unless
the Geneva conference produces tangible re-
sults, parliamentary pressure for direct negotiations with the Viet Minh
will be "almost insurmountable." The embassy states the government
"obviously bought time in Indochina with the Geneva conference, but the
assembly only extended credit on a short-term basis."
The embassy adds that the assembly's resolu-
tion, which states that France will be relieved of its obligations to the
Associated States if they repudiate any provision of the constitution rela-
tive to the French Union, could lead to failure of the current French-
Vietnamese negotiations.
Comment: The Vietnamese delegation now
in Paris will probably press for a bilateral treaty granting Vietnam
virtual independence, though within the French Union. In all likelihood
this would be acceptable to the Laniel government and presumably would
be feasible without constitutional revision.
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An enlargement of Vietnam's powers
would tend to limit France's freedom of action in any negotiations
with the Viet Minh, but would not preclude French withdrawal.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Israel intensifies attack on US arms aid to Arab states:
The Israeli government and press have
intensified their campaign against American
arms aid to the Arabs as well as the inclu-
sion of Iraq in the Turkish-Pakistani pact,
o arg ussell in Tel Aviv. Most of the Israeli editorials
have reacted against even "token" arms deliveries to the Arab states.
Prime Minister Sharett, speaking before
the Knesset in his capacity as foreign minister, stated that Israel's
opposition to arming the Arabs "is absolute as long as they continue
to wage a cold or not so cold war."
Comment: Israeli opposition to possible
Iraqi participation in the Turkish-Pakistani agreement has become more
violent as the probability of such adherence increases.
5. Nasr anxious for early Suez settlement:
Colonel Nasr desires a settlement on the
Suez base issue as quickly as possible.
He is convinced he can persuade the Revolu-
tionary Command Council to accept his
ormu a providing for immediate availability of the base to the West
in the event of an attack on Turkey as well as on any of the Arab states.
Nasr is willing to include Turkey if the British will yield on the question
of uniforms for technicians remaining at the base.
Nasr has authorized Ambassador Caffery to
suggest that the British ambassador arrange a meeting next week between
Nasr and the British negotiators.
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Comment: Nases interest in a quick
settlement may be inspired by the hope that he could sell such a
settlement to the Egyptian people as a major accomplishment and
thereby solidify his political position.
Foreign Secretary Eden has stated that
concessions on the uniform question could be considered only if an
attack on either Turkey or Iran were made a condition for the imme-
diate reactivation of the base. Political uncertainties in Cairo sug-
gest that Nasr could make no further concessions at this time.
LATIN AMERICA
6. Armed conflict reportedly threatens in Ecuador-Peru dispute:
As a result of recent troop movements
and heightened tension in the boundary
dispute between Ecuador and Peru, the
American charg�n Quito believes that
a new incident could cause open armed conflict.
A high Ecuadoran official stated on 10
March that Peru's current actions are similar to its preparations
for the 1941 invasion of Ecuador. He added that his country "will
defend itself at all costs." Ecuador is now planning to move its
fighter squadron from Quito to Salinas on the southern coast.
Comment: The present dispute, which
caused some tension at the 10 session at Caracas, started
with the arrest on 24 January of six Peruvian soldiers on the
Ecuadoran side of the border. Similar disputes have been frequent
since the Rio Protocol guaranteeing the border was signed in 1942.
Ecuador, as the weaker country, has in the past tended to exaggerate
the danger of a Peruvian invasion.
The Rio Protocol guarantors--the United
� States, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile--are scheduled to meet on 13
March in Rio de Janeiro to seek a solution to the dispute.
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