CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/27

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993966
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 27, 1954

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27 January 1954
Copy No. N4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
- NO CHANGE IN CLASS,
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE�
AUTH: HR 700
DATE: V*',9 _ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
� Comment on Molotov's opening statement at Berlin (page 3).
. Chilean copper may go to Communist China (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh attack on Dien Bien Phu expected within week (page 4
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Jordan may request British military assistance (page 4).
5. Break reported between Nagib and Revolutionary Command Council
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. East German community opposes Soviet requisition of dwellings
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Laniel reportedly exploring EDC's chances before considering
changes (page 6).
B. Finland and USSR to negotiate gold loan and settlement of trade
credit (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on Molotov's opening statement at Berlin:
Foreign Minister Molotov's opening
statement at the four-power conference indicated very little
change in the Soviet position. Molotov raised the possibility
of a prolonged deadlock at the outset by demanding that the first
item on the agenda be the convening of a subsequent five-power
conference. He is unlikely, however, to permit the conference
to break down over this issue.
Molotov's proposal that the Austrian
state treaty be discussed at Berlin was the first explicit Soviet
agreement to this Western demand. His suggestion that the treaty
be based on existing agreements foreshadows Soviet opposition to
any alleviation of the harsh economic terms of Article 35, The
demand that Austria never again become the tool of German mili-
tarism suggests that the Soviet Union will insist on a neutrality
clause in the treaty.
Molotov did not repeat the familiar
Soviet theme that a German settlement would facilitate agreement
to an Austrian treaty.
2. Chilean copper may go to Communist China:
Comment: This is apparently the first
shipment of Chilean copper destined for Communist China since the
UN resolution of May 1951.
It is not known whether this copper will be
transshipped to China through a Western European port. Within the
past month President Ibanez has reiterated that Chile will continue to
respect its international commitments in prohibiting copper sales to
the Soviet Orbit.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh attack on Dien Bien Phu expected within week:
the French estimated as of 26
January that the Viet Minh would attack
Dien Bien Phu within a week. One defen-
sive area had been under harassing mortar fire for 48 hours and
enemy intelligence reconnaissance units were active to the west
and north of the town.
The French High Command believes the
French position could be critical, since Viet Minh firepower at Dien
Bien Phu is double that used in a similar situation at Na San in Novem-
ber 1952.
Comment: It is still not certain that the
Viet Minh will try an all-out assault on Dien Bien Phu. The Commu-
nists may first undertake probing attacks to test French defensive
capabilities before deciding their course of action.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Jordan may request British military assistance:
A senior Jordanian official told Ambassador
Mallory that Jordan must get military and
financial assistance from a source other
than the Arab League countries, since they
are reluctant to continue contributing funds to the Jordanian National
Guard.
The official stated that since Jordan is
"fighting for its existence," it is seriously considering offering Britain
military facilities as an alternative to the Suez base, despite the dis-
favor such a move would meet both in the Arab world and among ultra-
nationalistic Jordanian circles.
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Comment: The Jordanian government
was under strong domestic criticism last October when the Arab
Legion failed to repel the Israeli attack on Qibya. Arab League
states voted to provide considerable financial support for the
Jordanian National Guard along the Israeli border, but they have
been slow to meet their commitments.
5. Break reported between Nagib and Revolutionary Command Council:
General Nagib's relations with the Revolu-
tionary Command Council have deteriorated
to such an extent that he refuses to preside
at cabinet and council meetings,
The split reportedly results from Nagib's
objection to the council's policy of using the Suez issue to blackmail
the West.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. East German community opposes Soviet requisition of dwellings:
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Comment: While the East Germans have
frequently expressed discontent with measures of their government,
instances of overt opposition to the occupation forces have been rare
since the June riots.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Laniel reportedly exploring EDC's chances before considering changes:
Premier Laniel and Foreign Minister Bidault
have stated they will not consider the need for
changes in the EDC treaty until they have thor-
oughly explored parliamentary sentiment durin,
the current recess,
After this study they
will decide whether the treaty has a better chance to pass parliament in
its present form or with modifications.
Comment: This report indicates that Laniel
Is more concerned with the view of parliament as a whole toward EDC
ratification than with mollifying the ex-Gaullist supporters of his coalition.
8. Finland and USSR to negotiate gold loan and settlement of trade credit:
A Finnish delegation headed by Trade Minister
Aura left for Moscow on 25 January to negotiate
a gold loan and a settlement of Finland's trade
credit with the USSR.
Comment: Finland anticipates an export
surplus of some $15,000,000 with the Soviet Union during 1954, and
hopes to obtain a Soviet commitment to settle all or part of this credit
in sterling or gold.
The Finns have shown some interest in the
Soviet offer of a gold loan, which would permit them to expand their
non-woodworking industries. These have not been covered by loans
from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
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