CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02993964
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 23, 1954

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23 January 1954
DOCUMENT NO. 3/
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
L a.9_
NEXT REVIEW DATE
AUTH: HR -740%
DATE: REVIEWER:
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO RET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. East-West trader in Switzerland offers to sell nine cargo ships to
Soviet Union (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Communist planes attack UN aircraft off west Korean coast (page 3).
3. Large number of armored vehicles sighted in Canton area (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on stalemate in Soviet-Iranian border and financial talks
(page 4).
5. Henderson says supplementary financial aid to Iran will promote oil
settlement (page 5).
6. Iranian government reportedly suspends balloting in five districts
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. East German government fears antiregime demonstrations during
conference (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French government may change position on EDC (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
9. New threat seen to American-Chilean copper negotiations (page 7).
10. Peru reportedly may not attend Caracas conference (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. East-West trader in Switzerland offers to sell nine cargo ships to
Soviet Union:
Comment: The Soviet Union's continued
need for cargo vessels is reflected in the Kremlin's insistence that
its 1953 trade agreements with Western European countries include
orders for the construction of ships.
Decreased profits in Western maritime
shipping operations in the past year have made more ships available
for sale, and at reduced prices. Cargo ships of this size are subject
to COCOM quantitative export control,but strong British pressure has
developed for liberalization.
FAR EAST
2. Communist planes attack UN aircraft off west Korean coast:
On 22 January, 35 MIG-15's, assumed to
be Chinese, attacked a UN air patrol over
Korea Bay, approximately 40 miles south-
west of Chongju. One MIG-15 apparently
was downed.
Comment: Communist sensitivity to UN
patrol action off the west coast has increased during the last few
months, and on 30 December a UN jet fighter was fired on in approxi-
mately the same area.
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While the the 22 January attack apparently
occurred outside the air space defined in the truce agreement, the
Communists could charge that the UN Command was violating the
agreement by flying over small islands in this area.
3. Large number of armored vehicles sighted in Canton area:
A Merchant marine officer told
the US army liaison officer at Hong Kong
that he saw 72 "light tanks" parked on the
Whampoa docks near Canton in South China
on 27 December. These tanks looked like
k31'tttsh I3ren gun carrier, an open armored reconnaissance vehicle,
and their armament appeared to be a six-pounder. Also parked on the
dock were four otherwise unidentified six-wheeled armored cars.
The liaison officer also reported
seven 30-ton armored
vehicles at Canton on 7 December. The vehicles were not further de-
scribed but were said to belong to a public security unit located at
Canton.
Comment: This is the first reliable report
of substantial numbers of armored vehicles in South China. Their pres-
ence at Canton suggests that an armored unit may have moved into the
vicinity recently or that a new armored unit is being formed in the area.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on stalemate in Soviet-Iranian border and financial talks:
Soviet-Iranian talks on border and financial
problems have been temporarily suspended to allow the Soviet delega-
tion to obtain instructions from Moscow, according to the chief of the
Iranian delegation. The Soviet ambassador left for Moscow on 21 Janu-
ary, apparently for consultation.
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lapiI N..]
Although it was originally agreed that the
talks would deal alternately with border and financial issues, the
Soviet delegation apparently has declined to discuss the latter.
states that the Iranian delegation asserted that
it will not resume the talks until the USSR is ready to discuss them.
Iran reportedly was prepared to make
claims for $38,000,000 and to ask for a revision of the border which
would return to Iran some areas now claimed by the Soviet Union.
It is unlikely that the USSR will make any significant border or
financial concessions to the present Iranian government.
5. Henderson says supplementary financial aid to Iran will promote oil
settlement:
Ambassador Henderson believes, and
British charg�right concurs, that ex-
tension of supplementary emergency finan-
cial aid to Iran would produce an atmosphere
more favorable to the success of oil negotiations and the durability of
any resulting agreement.
Henderson points out that if a settlement
were reached with Britain while the United States was refusing assist-
ance to Iran, it would be an invitation to Iranian demagogues to contend
that an agreement had been signed only under economic duress.
Comment: Since the beginning of the oil
dispute with Britain, many Iranians have maintained that the United
States was withholding aid in order to force an agreement.
6. Iranian government reportedly suspends balloting in five districts:
/the Iranian government
has been obliged to suspend balloting in five
constituencies involving seven Mains seats.
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Naive
The suspensions are explained on the grounds
of "procedural irregularities." The real reasons appear to be resistance
to government attempts to rig the elections, indecision concerning candi-
dates to be supported, and conflicting political deals made by government-
sponsored candidates without Tehran's knowledge.
Comment: The necessity of suspending
balloting so early in the election period suggests that the government
will not get a friendly Majlis as soon as it had expected. On the basis
of this initial reaction, the elections will probably be drawn out, and
the government may have to resort to even more obvious intervention
in order to ensure the election of its candidates.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. East German government fears antiregime demonstrations during
conference:
Precautions ordered by the East German
authorities provide new evidence that they
are concerned over possible antiregime
demonstrations during the Berlin four-power
conference. Police forces in East Berlin
have been strengthened, and special patrols have been set up.
SED investigation of "enemy activities"
designed to disrupt the conference has revealed open discussion of
strike and demonstration plans in East Berlin factories, as well as
"invitations" to nearby villagers to demonstrate against the regime
during the conference.
Comment: The East German government
is facing an increasingly difficult problem in the attempt to achieve a
peaceful atmosphere in East Berlin while maintaining adequate police
precautions against disorders. Antiregime demonstrations would
seriously weaken the Soviet argument that a provisional all-German
government must include representatives of the East German regime.
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. French government may change position on EDC:
According to Defense Minister Pleven's
executive secretary, Premier Laniel is
investigating possibilities of making EDC
more palatable to the ex-Gaullists as a
preliminary to Assembly debate. The premier is at present dis-
cussing with the ex-Gaullist ministers in his cabinet recent public
statements by Pleven calling for less centralization of power in the
EDC Commissariat and for a transition period in the implementation
of the treaty.
Comment: Laniel has publicly stated his
intention to bring EDC before the National Assembly as its first order
of business after the Berlin talks. A bid for ex-Gaullist support along
the lines reported, however, would probably, as in the past, weaken
Assembly backing for EDC and lead to new demands for changes in the
treaty.
LATIN AMERICA
9. New threat seen to American-Chilean copper negotiations:
The American embassy in Santiago reports
that the Chilean government may submit
new copper legislation to congress contain-
ing provisions unsatisfactory to the American-
owned copper companies. Even if satisfactory legislation is presented,
the congress may fail, as it did in 1951, to act on it.
the Chilean foreign minister recently claimed to have
received assurances that the United States will buy Chile's stockpile of
copper as soon as legislation is presented to the Chilean congress.
Comment: In the prolonged negotiations
with Chile regarding the possible purchase of its 100,000-ton stockpile
of copper, the United States has insisted on new Chilean legislation
defining the status of the American companies.
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Axl:,
Any new delay in the negotiations would be
almost certain to cause further deterioration in Chile's already pre-
carious economic and political situation. President Ibanez still insists
that the copper will not be sold to the Orbit, but many Chileans, in-
cluding the president of the Chamber of Deputies, who recently returned
from Moscow, are now pushing for such sales.
10. Peru reportedly may not attend Caracas conference:
refuse to attend,
Unless a solution for the Haya de la Torre
case can be found prior to the opening in
Caracas on 1 March of the Tenth Inter-
American Conference, Peru will probably
according to the American embassy in Lima.
Comment:
Peru's refusal to date to grant Haya de la
Torre a safe-conduct and thereby end his five-year asylum in the
Colombian embassy in Lima has been motivated primarily by the
ruling families' bitter hatred of the Peruvian opposition leader.
T CREt
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