CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/08/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Keywords: 2018 Sanitization
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02987879
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: August 7, 1958

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7 August 1958
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CENTRAL
57
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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7 AUGUST 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Peiping endorses Soviet call for spe-
cial UN General Assembly session
and for Summit meeting on global is-
sues.
Chinese Communist statistics for
first half of 1958 claim phenomenal
economic progress.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Chinese Nationalists pondering pos-
sible courses of action in response
to Communist occupation of coastal
airfields.
Jordan - A coup against King Husayn
may be attempted soon.
UAR vice president in Saudi Arabia
on official visit.
f
III. THE WEST
Macmillan may modify some details
of Britain's Cyprus plan during
Athens talks to gain Greek coopera-
tion.
New attempt to overthrow Duvalier
regime in Haiti possible.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
7 August 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Summit talks: On 6 August Peiping endorsed both points
made in Khrushchev's 5 August letter--the call for a special
meeting of the UN General Assembly to discuss US and UK
"intervention" in the Middle East as well as the demand for a
summit meeting on world issues as first proposed last Decem-
ber. On 5 August in a two-and-one-half hour interview with
Adlai Stevenson, Khrushchev insisted on a summit conference
which mould not be limited to Middle East issues but would
deal with a wide range of international matters. Moscow and
Peiping are so far avoiding an explicit demand for Chinese
Communist participation in a summit meeting. Khrushchev's
5 August letter urged a summit conference "composed as we
earlier proposed"--presumably excluding Communist China.
(Page 1)
Communist China: Peiping's statistical report for the
2 first half of the year shows industrial production up 34 per-
cent over the same period in 1957, construction actitrity well
over the previous high in 1956, and bumper early harvests.
These statistics claim phenomenal progress and remain to be
substantiated. The leadership professes to believe that these
achievements are but a "prelude" to even greater progress in
the last half of the year. Communist leaders clearly feel that
this growth vindicates the "giant leap forward" economic poli-
cies which had been regarded as too hazardous by the "gloomy
clique." (Page 2)
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Watch Committee conclusion--Sino-Soviet bloc:
A. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hos-
tilities against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to
initiate direct military action against US forces abroad, US
allies, or areas peripheral to the Orbit in the immediate future.
NOTE: Soviet forces in areas adjacent fo the Middle East
remain on a limited alert but the evidence does not indi-
cate general preparations for military action in the Middle
East or elsewhere. Chinese Communist fighter air strength
has been deployed to two coastal airfields opposite Taiwan,
which has increased Chinese Nationalist apprehensions.
There is a possibility of serious air clashes in the Taiwan
Strait area. The activities of other Chinese Communist
forces, however, do not reflect intentions for major ac-
tion against the _Off shore Islands or Taiwan in the imme-
diate future.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Taiwan:
The Chinese Nationalist Air Force, the Chinese Na-
tionalists are considering two courses of action in regard to
Communist Chinese occupation of some coastal airfields op-
site Taiwan--to "live with the situation," which
can stop Chinese Nationalist reconnaissance over-
flights, or to carry out air attacks to destroy the airfields. A
decision is expected by 9 August. However, Chiang Kai-shek
has personally reassured Ambassador Drumright and Admiral
Smoot that the Nationalists will honor their commitment not to
undertake actions such as bombing of mainland airfields with-
out consultation with the US. Nevertheless, continuing Chinese
Nationalist efforts to maintain almost daily reconnaissance
sweeps in squadron strength could lead to air combat over the
Taiwan Strait at any time. (Page 3)
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Watch Committee conclusion�Middle East: Although a
deliberate initiation of open hostilities in the Middle East is
unlikely in the immediate future, the situation remains highly
unstable throughout the area, particularly where US and UK
interests or commitments are involved, and incidents could
occur at any time.
NOTE: The declining morale of Husayn in the face of
Jordan's economic and political isolation is aggravating
the dangerous instability of Jordan despite the presence
of British forces, If the regime collapses, Israeli and
UAR action to take control of Jordanian territory is pos-
sible.
The pro-Western orientation of Saudi Arabia is threat-
ened by the deteriorating position of Saud and the in-
creasing influence of the UAR.
Jordan: There are indications that a coup against King
Husayn may be undertaWn shortly. (Page 4)
*Saudi Arabia - UAR: The Saudi Government, increas-
ingly dominated by Crown Prince Faysal, appears to be moving
quickly to re-establish close relations with Nasir.
Cro.wn Prince Faysal is expected
to take complete charge in Saudi Arabia within five days. Gen-
eral Abd al-Hakim Amir, UAR Vice President, arrived in Saudi
Arabia on an official visit on 6 August, reportedly to negotiate
agreement for teturn of an Egyptian military mission.
Hakim's trip was pre-
ceded by a Saudi request, that Saudi military officers again be
trained in UAR facilities.
the Saudi radio station in Jidda has been instructed
to resume working with the UAR joint command station in Cairo.
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III. THE WEST
*Britain - Cyprus: Prime Minister Macmillan, in his
talks with Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis beginning 7
August in Athens, may agree to modify some details of Brit-
ain's plan for Cyprus in the hope of gaining Karamanlis' co-
operation in putting the plan into effect. He may believe that
granting Athens' desire to provide the proposed government
with advisers chosen by the Greek and Turkish communities
rather than with advisers designated by Athens and Ankara
would offer the best prospect for capitalizing on EOKA's
truce, which is subject to expiration on 10 August. Turkey
may be expected to accept Macmillan's offer to visit Ankara.
(Page 5)
Haiti: A new attempt to overthrow the Duvalier govern-
ment, possibly with material support from the Dominican
Republic, may be launched in the near future. Despite Du-
valier's quashing of a coup his control over the
political situation is weak. (Page 7)
7 Aug 58
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Peiping Endorses Khrushchev Middle East and Summit
Proposals
Communist China endorsed on 6 August Soviet Pre-
mier Khrushchev's proposals regarding a special meet-
ing of the UN General Assembly to deal with the question
of Anglo-American "aggression" in the Middle East and
a summit conference dealing with broader issues. Mie
day before Peiping's endorsement, Khrushchev told Adlai
Stevenson in the course of a two-and-one-half hour inter-
view that it now was "too late" for a summit session on
the Middle East situation alone and that Moscow would in-
sist on a conference _which would deal with the whole range
of summit problems.
In hailing the concept of a comprehensive conference,
Peiping gives no indication that it would seek to participate,
but current tension in the Taiwan Strait area may have been
occasioned by a Sino -Soviet decision to stir up a Far East-
ern issue which could serve as the pretext for Peiping's
attendance at the summit.
In his 5 August letters to Western leaders, however,
Khrushchev, in speaking of a summit meeting, urged a
conference "composed as we earlier proposed." Earlier
Soviet proposals did not include a bid for Peiping's partici-
pation, and Khrushchev recently said there was no question
of Chinese attendance but only of seeing to it that Chinese
interests were properly defended.
Khrushchev's latest proposals were drafted in response
to the US and UK messages of 31 July and 1 August which
arrived in Moscow during his absence in Peiping, and would
not appear to have been the result of Chinese Communist
pressure. Mao in his joint communique with Khrushchev
of 3 August endorsed the earlier Soviet proposal for a big
power summit conference limited to the Middle East.
7 Aug 58
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Economic Gains Announced by Peiping
The leadership in Peiping feels that the report of the
State Statistical Bureau, showing an "unprecedentedly rap-
id" economic growth during the first half of the year, vin-
dicates its drive begun last winter for a "giant leap forward"
economic policy. Commenting on the report, the official
People's Daily says it, invalidates the views of the "gloomy
clique" which has held that the "leap" policies were too haz-
ardous. The tone of the commentary suggests that Peiping
may soon take steps against the as yet unidentified members
of the clique.
The report asserts that during the first six months the
total value of industrial output increased 34 percent over the
same period last year, as compared with a 15-percent in-
crease for the full year called for in the official plan and a
33-percent increase subsequently pledged under the regime's
leap forward program. Investment in new construction was
more than 40 percent above the midyear level of the record
construction year of 1956.
The total harvest of winter grain and early summer crops
will show a remarkable 69-percent increase over the same
crops last year. China's wheat crop, it is said, will top that
of the US for the first time. The agricultural claims may
be exaggerated, but Peiping doubtless got a substantial in-
crease in early crops through intensive cultivation, improved
water control, and the application of over 48 tons of natural
fertilizer per acre.
Peiping's statistics seem remarkably favorable and re-
main to be substantiated,
7 Aug 58
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Chinese Nationalist Reaction to Chinese Communist
Occupation of Airfields Opposite Taiwan
The Chinese Nationalists appear genuinely concerned
over the radically altered situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Nationalist
military officials now regard strategic control of the straits
as lost and fear the ultimate loss of the offshore islands.
The Nationalists are continuing air patrols over the
strait with protective high cover, and with instructions to
avoid engagement. However, the aggressiveness of Chinese
Communist air patrols conducted against daily Nationalist
reconnaissance flights since the occupation of the coastal
airfields may lead to clashes by forces of squadron strength.
An air battle on this scale could develop into an eggagement
involving Taiwan air space, without either side so intending.
The American air attach�elieves the Nationalists will
not risk a major conflict by bombing the airfields at this
time. Ambassador Drumright thinks, however, that they
certainly will oppose any Communist attempt to control the
air space over the Taiwan Strait and the offshore islands
despite Communist superiority in numbers and quality of
aircraft, and that any resulting air action would probably
lead to bombing of air bases and then to United States involve-
ment. Additionally, the offshore islands, where one third
of the Nationalist ground forces are stationed, would become
isolated. Drumright believes the Nationalists are deter-
mined to fight to the bitter end and will sacrifice men and
equipment rather than evacuate.
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Nftoe Nene
Plotting Against King of Jordan
Antigovernment officers and civilians, led by Jordanian
army Deputy Chief of Staff Sadiq Shara, are reported to be
determined to initiate an attempt to overthrow King Husayn
at the earliest possible monent, despite the presence of the
small British force in Jordan. Army units recently moved
to Amman from West Jordan may be under the influence of
officers sympathetic to the opposition. On the basis of pres-
ent opposition planning, the attempt to overthrow the gov-
ernment would occur during the week of 10-16 August.
Former Minister of Defense and Interior Ajluni, who is
hostile to the government, has scoffed at the contention that
the King can count on the support of the important Bani Sakr
Bedouin tribe, which provides much of the manpower for army
units considered loyal by the crown. Ajluni claims that be-
cause of deep hatred for the government stemming from its
repressive acts, a compromise solution of Jordan's political
orientation is unlikely. He foresees fighting more intense and
of longer duration than has occurred in Lebanon, and claims
that the government has uncove nniv i smcill nAmcmtge
of arms smuggled into Jordan.
7 Aug 58
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III. THE WEST
Macmillan's Visit to Athens
Macmillan's sudden trip to Greece was made in an ef-
fort to capitalize on the truce on Cyprus in seeking a solution
to the island's problems, taking advantage also of the efforts
NATO Secretary General Spaak has made with the Greek and
Turkish NATO representatives toward narrowing differences.
Macmillan, who has offered to visit Ankara also, presumably
will continue to insist that the British plan for seven years of
self-government be the basis of discussion. The British plan
envisages separate communal assemblies�the specific re,
sponsibilities of which remain to be defined--topped by a min-
isterial council, with the British governor retaining responsi-
bility for defense, internal security, and foreign affairs.
Macmillan now may be willing to modify certain details
in the British plan in order to reach some agreement that can
lead to negotiations and implementation of a detailed plan. He
might, for example, grant the Greek request that the two ad-
visers to the Governor of Cyprus be chosen by the Greek and
Turkish Cypriots instead of being official representatives of
the governments in Athens and Ankara. Britain had hoped by
its original suggestion to induce Greece and Turkey to assume
partial responsibility for Cyprus; the Turks have considered
the suggestion advantageous and presumably would oppose its
modification. A Foreign Office official said recently that this
point could be discussed but indicated that a Greek suggestion
that a plebiscite be held after the seven-year period, exclud-
ing both enosis and partition, was inadmissible. Macmillan
reiterated to Turkish Prime Minister Menderes on 30 July
that a final solution could not be decided on until the end of the
seven-year period.
Governor Foot who is joining Macmillan in Athens will
probably confer with Archbishop Makarios, with whom he has
7 Aug 58
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been exchanging views for several months. While
willing to grant Makarios a significant role in any future
Cyprus government, Foreign Secretary Lennox-Boyd only
last week stated that Makarios would not be allowed to return
to the island until violence had ceased; and Foot had previously
suggested that a month or two of peace would be required.
7 Aug 58
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Another Coup Attempt Imminent in Haiti
Another attempt to oust the regime of Haitian President
Francois Duvalier appears imminent. The secretary of the
Dominican Embassy in Port-au-Prince is said
to have admitted that a Dominican plane which
landed recently in Jamaica is to be used in the attempt. He
blamed the delay to date on bad weather and security measures
by the Haitian Air Force, which each night rolls oil drums onto
the landing strip of the airfield near Port-au-Prince. The
Dominicans have long been reported aiding Duvalier's political
opposition in a plan to overthrow the government.
The political atmosphere in Haiti has become increasingly
tense since the abortive coup attempt on 29 July. The govern-
ment has increased its repressive measures against suspected
opponents and has indicated concern for its own security by re-
questing the United States to establish air and sea patrols along
the Haitian coast. With the loyalty of the army in doubt and with
his principal support coming from the secret police and other
civilian partisans, Duvalier's control is precarious. A well-
organized coup attem t ou d probably spark a spontaneous
general uprising.
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