CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/10/31

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02970165
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 31, 1953

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. *3
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
[I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE- /-�0 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: "Paheir-9. REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
CO2970165
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31 October 1953
Copy No.
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SUMMARY
SOVIET ,UNION
1. Soviet medium bombers fly into Poland (page 3).
FAR EAST
SZBritish propose Korean unification in five stages (page 3).
j",Rhee rejects mutual defense pact with Nationalist China (page 4).
Yoshida plans drastic action against South Korea (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Political considerations still impede Iranian oil settlement (page 5).
afole Iranian minister of court reportedly may resign (page 6).
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EASTERN EUROPE
Call-up of Yugoslav reservists apparently continuing (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
Soviet medium bombers fly into Poland!
on 28 October at
least 14 multi-engine aircraft, probably
TU-4 medium bombers, flew from the
Second Long Range Air Army bases at
Poltava and Zhitomir in the Ukraine to an as yet undetermined air-
field in Poland, where they apparently landed.
Comment! This flight of TU-4's, the
largest yet noted over any European Satellite, may be connected
with intensified air training activity which has been noted in the
European USSR since mid-October.
Together with a recent round-trip
flight of nine TU-4's from Zhitomir to eastern Poland, this flight
may indicate that Soviet medium bomber training activities, which
have been confined to the Soviet Union and in rare instances the
adjoining waters, are being extended to eastern Europe.
FAR EAST
British propose Korean unification in five stages:
The British position paper for the Korean
political conference calls for establishing
a unified and neutralized Korea in five
successive stages, according to the Ameri-
can embassy in London. The steps would be internationally super-
vised elections in all of Korea; establishment of an all-Korean govern-
ment; unification; neutralization guarantees by the great powers plus
Korea; and finally withdrawal of foreign troops.
The paper also states that the UN should
resist any proposal by the Communists for the formation of a joint
North-South Korea government along the lines they have proposed
for Germany. If unification is impossible, the British suggest a
modus vivendi to permit withdrawal of at least part of the UN forces
and the creation of a buffer zone in central Korea under a joint or
neutral commission.
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Comment: The latest Communist
proposals on Korea and Germany have called for unification
through the creation of a joint legislature, which would then
formulate plans for "free" elections, and this again seems to
be the likely pattern. The Communists may propose, however,
that troop withdrawal be accomplished prior to any discussions
on unification.
Elections to cover all of Korea would
be opposed by President Rhee, who insists that the 100 vacant
seatig in the South Korean legislature be filled by elections limited
to the north. The remaining 150 seats are occupied by assemblymen
largely under Rhee's controL
3. Rhee rejects mutual defense pact with Nationalist China:
On 29 October President Rhee informed
Ambassador Briggs that he had rejected
as "impractical" a Chinese Nationalist
proposal for a mutual defense treaty be-
tween Formosa and South Korea, and had suggested instead a joint
statement or declaration to the non-Communist Asian peoples. He
told the Chinese emissary that, since the Nationalists "occupy no
mainland territory," it made little sense to speak of Nationalist
assistance to South Korea and that the latter was too preoccupied
with fighting aggression to help the Nationalists invade the mainland.
Comment: Chiang had previously stated
that since both South Korea and Nationalist China draw their strength
from the United States, a bilateral pact would have little value unless
It included American guarantees. There is no evidence available to
Indicate the reason for this Chinese Nationalist initiative.
Both Chiang and Rhee would favor a multi-
lateral Pacific pact similar to NATO in which the United States was a
party.
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4.
Yoshida plans drastic action against South Korea:
An official of the Japanese
Foreign Ministry 3.3(h)(2)
on 30 October made an "urgent secret appeal"
to the American embassy for help in dissuading
Prime Minister Yoshida from ordering retalia-
tion against South Korea for the seizure of Japanese fishing vessels and
their crews. He stated that Yoshida had rejected the ministry's advice,
and instructed it to prepare plans for the expulsion of the Korean minis-
ter and closing of the mission, the use of force, and the arrest of Korean
residents in numbers equal to the detained fishermen. These plans would
be presented to the cabinet on 3 November.
A second official later informed the embassy
that Yoshida had already instructed the foreign minister to ask for the
Korean minister's recall. Both officials urged immediate American
intercession as the only recourse.
Comment: Both Japan and Korea have indi-
cated to American officials that they desire a renewal of negotiations
with Americans participating as official observers. Since preconference
concessions probably are a prerequisite for any reasonable assurance of
success, drastic Japanese action would seriously jeopardize resumption
of the talks. Yoshida's sudden move may be designed to meet expected
Diet criticism.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Political considerations still impede Iranian oil settlement:
�
Prime Minister Zahedi told Ambassador
Henderson and Herbert Hoover, Jr. on
28 October that it would be extremely diffi-
cult for him to agree to an oil settlement
which placed ranian oil production under foreign control. Negotia-
tions for reestablishment of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company in Iran
would be impossible, although Iran might be willing to sell its prod-
ucts to a group of distributing companies in which AIOC played a
minor role.
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Zahedi also emphasized the difficulties
he would face if he accepted the formula in force elsewhere in the
Near East, which would split the oil profits evenly between Iran
and an operating company.
The prime minister suggested that it
would be easier for the Iranian government if negotiations were
carried on through the International Bank rather than directly
with a group of operating companies.
Comment: Zahedi's approach to the
oil negotiations appears to reflect essentially the same political
considerations as governed Mossadeq's actions. While Zahedi
may be willing to reach an agreement on the basis of a commer-
cially feasible arrangement, he would face considerable opposition
unless Iranian public opinion were first prepared for it.
6. Iranian minister of court reportedly may resign:
Iranian minister of court Hossein Ala
may resign because of personal friction
with the shah,
The shah reportedly reappointed Ala to the post after the fall of
Mossadeq in order to "rehabilitate" Ala's prestige, but now wants
a less conservative man.
Ala Soheili is reportedly being considered
for the post.
Comment: Hossein Ala, a former
Iranian ambassador to the United States, has been a staunch sup-
porter of the shah and a capable adviser.
Soheili, who has the reputation of being
pro-British, was the Iranian ambassador in London in 1950 and 1951
and remained in England after diplomatic relations were broken off.
He returned to Iran following Mossadeq's ouster and immediately
announced that he was a candidate to succeed Zahedi as prime minister.
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7.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Call-up of Yugoslav reservists apparently continuing:
special commissions have been going from
village to village in central Yugoslavia,
possibly as late as 27 October, to con-
script men, horses and vehicles for military use.
Comment Previous reports have indi-
cated that the call-up of reservists,n� while extending to various parts
of the country, has been concentrated in the northwest area. It has
been estimated that as many as 100,000 have already been called up.
Yugoslav troop strength in the area around Trieste is currently
estimated at 44,000 with an additional 5,000 in Zone B.
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