CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/10/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02970164
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 30, 1953

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Copy No. 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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SEC INFORMATION
30 October 1953
DOCUMENT NO 4
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1-1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: P Q09
ALITH: HR 70-2
DATE: 40/th/79 REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
2. Peiping buys $71,000,000 worth of aviation equipment (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
FAR EAST
01,1Communists sending large quantities of materials to North Korea
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
we"
. Viet Minh reportedly to attack northern apex of Tonkin delta
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6.
7. Iraq renews request for US military aid (page 6).
8. Communist connection with Mau Mau suggested (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
Solie Soviet diplomat sets forth policy on Austria (page 7).
Adenauer dashes hopes for early Saar settlement (page 8).
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GENERAL
2. Peiping buys $71,000,000 worth of aviation equipment
Comment Most of these current Chinese
purchases are believed to be for military equipment, as Communist
China's domestic civil airline was well established by the end of last
year and was then nearly adequate to meet internal transport needs.
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3.
Peiping's military or quasimilitary
purchases in 1953 from the Engineering Directorate, which handles
military exports for the Ministry of Foreign Trade, now total
$160,864,449, probably a fourth of China's commercial imports
from the USSR.
SOVIET UNION
FAR EAST
4. Communists sending large quantities of materials to North Korea:
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In Korea, told Ambassador Dean on 28
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October that a huge quantity of construction materials had been
observed coming into North Korea, and that enormous efforts
were being made to aid the economy.
said the Communists
apparently want to show that they can rebuild the north before
the United States can rebuild the south. He believes further
that the Communists want a political conference for propaganda
purposes to cover their frantic rehabilitation efforts.
Comment: Reports from an NNSC
team state that Communist rail shipments into North Korea have
been stepped up, indicating that Moscow may have begun to imple-
ment its billion-ruble aid program for North Korean reconstruction.
Members of the neutral nations teams are permitted to make only
limited inspections and have not been able to determine whether the
materials arriving thus far are for military purposes or industrial
rehabilitation.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Viet Minh reportedly to attack northern apex of Tonkin delta:
The Viet Minh is planning to attack the
Vinh Yen- Phuc Yen area at the northern
apex of the Tonkin delta
As of 27 October, one small unit of the
312th Division had already moved toward the area, and the 308th
Division has reportedly moved southward from its summer quarters
at Thai Nguyen.
Comment:
have predicted a major enemy attack from the north and anticipate
that it might begin between 7 and 14 November.
Vinh Yen, located near the enemy head-
quarters, is often described as the gateway to Hanoi. It was the
scene of the largest battle of the Indochina war in January 1950,
when the French threw back a strong Viet Minh frontal assault.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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7. Iraq renews request for US military aid:
Iraqi prime minister Jamali has inquired
about the American attitude toward Iraq's
22 March request for a military grant.
His government, Jamali told US ambassador
Berry, is just as eager as its predecessor for favorable American
action. The new Iraqi chief of staff has expressed the same hope to
the US military attache.
Comment: Jamali favors planning with
the United States for the defense irthe Middle East. Iraq wants to
carry out a four-year army expansion program, under which the army
would serve as a British corps in the event of war, with the mission
of defending the northern and eastern frontiers of Iraq.
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8. Communist connection with Mau Mau suggested:
there is a loosely organized group ot cara-
carrying Communists in Kenya who receive
instructions and help from Communist groups in London, Bombay and
Johannesburg.
A mimeographed Mau Mau leaflet, The Red
Flag, which has been found in many parts of the Kikuyu reserve, faith-
MT parrots the Communist Party line. It has already been proscribed
by the government.
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before the end of the current emergency, there will be more than enough
evidence to prove that both local and foreign Communists are actively
supporting the Mau Mau.
Comment: This leaflet is the first evidence
of direct Communist influence in Mau Mau. Previously known Communist
interest had been limited to propaganda and to overt legal aid in connec-
tion with the Kenyatta trial.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Soviet diplomat sets forth policy on Austria:
Foreign Minister Gruber has reported that 3.3(h)(2)
at a dinner given by Soviet high commissioner
Richey on 27 October, the latter said that the
USSR favored Austrian participation in treaty
negotiations, on the assumption that Austria would "play a good part" in
them. According to Gruber, the Austrians are attempting to work out a
communique with the Russians. Austrian officials believe that the Soviet
reply on Lugano will be merely a further discussion of the agenda and
that the Austrian question can not be settled separately from the German
problem.
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Another Soviet official said that the
problem of German assets could not be settled prior to a treaty
and discounted the prospect of increased Soviet-Austrian trade
at this time.
'Comment The Soviet approach may
foreshadow an attempt to commit Austria in advance to the Soviet
version of a treaty.
Austrian officials have had some hopes
of negotiating the return of Soviet-held German assets prior to a
treaty. In negotiations for a trade treaty with the Soviet Union, the
Austrians have often insisted that exports from the Soviet-held
enterprises be included as Austrian exports.
10. Adenauer dashes hopes for early Saar settlement:
Chancellor Adenauer told Ambassador
Conant on 27 October that he did not
believe his government could reach an
agreement with France on the Saar within
the next two months. He will nevertheless resume his preliminary
talks with French ambassador Francois-Poncet on 3 November, and
he expects to talk with Foreign Minister Bidault on 26 November in
The Hague.
Comment Accumulating evidence
suggests that Adenauer believes his bargaining position on the
Saar improves with time and that he may seek American and
British mediation to moderate French terms.
Meanwhile the minor coalition parties
in Bonn are becoming more vocal in their opposition to the French-
German agreement in principle for "Europeanizing" the Saar.
Adenauer, however, can probably secure Bundestag support for
such an arrangement if it is reviewable in five to ten years.
Ambassador Dillon in Paris believes
that even if a Saar agreement were reached before the mid-December
presidential election, the French National Assembly could hardly
commence debate on the EDC before late Tanuary.
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