WEEKLY SUMMARY

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02967387
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63
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October 23, 2023
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August 28, 2023
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F-2022-01252
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April 10, 1970
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Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nor, DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY e 41 10 April 1970 No. 0365/70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Ii r _Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Em,k The WEEKLY SUMMARY, issued every Friday morning by the Office of Current Intelligence, reports and analyzes significant developments of the week through noon on Thursday. It fre- quently includes material coordinated with or prepared by the O1Te of Economic Research, the Office of Strategic Research, .inti the Directorate of Science and Technology. topics requir- ing more comprehensive treatment and therefore published sep- itrawly as Special Reports are listed in the contents pages. WARNING Yhc WEEKLY SUMMARY contains classified information af- fecting the national security of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- l. by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. rROUP 1 eluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nero' CONTENTS Far East THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE Page 1 VIETNAM 2 Protest activity by restive elements in Saigon accelerated this week, with the Thieu government using a combination of carrot-and-stick tactics to try to calm the situation. The latest round of Com- munist military attacks, initiated last week, has tapered off after sharply boosting casualties on all sides. CHOU EN-LAI WARMLY GREETED IN NORTH KOREA Chou En-lai's three-day state visit to Pyongyang has capped a six-month thaw in Sib-Korean relations. MILITARY SITUATION IN LAOS REMAINS CRITICAL Communist forces are maintaining pressure against government positions flanking the Plaine des Jarres, but there has been no major change in the over-all tactical situation. PHNOM PENH TRYING TO BROADEN ITS POWER BASE The government believes it has the domestic situa- tion generally under control, but recognizes the need for rapid steps to win broad support from the peas- antry. Europe 5 7 9 THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 11 USSR MANEUVERS FOR POSITION IN NEXT ROUND OF SALT Private Soviet statements since the Helsinki talks suggest that the USSR prefers a quantitative agree- ment, and press commentary indicates that the key issue at Vienna will be ABMs. Moscow has failed thus far, however, to reveal the position it will take. -greRga:_ 12 (b)(3) Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 ink SOVIET OIL SALES TO THE FREE WORLD FALTER The USSR continues to meet most of its East European allies' increasing demand for petroleum, but Soviet sales for hard currency to the free world have de- clined. ANGLO-MALTESE RELATIONS DETERIORATE A dispute over UK aid for Malta has tied up much- needed funds and complicated the domestic political situation on the island. PANKOW INTENSIFIES PROPAGANDA AGAINST BONN In a campaign aimed mainly at the East German public, Pankow has attacked Chancellor Brandt personally as well as his government and party. IAEA FACES SAFEGUARDS ISSUES A special committee to plan for the upcoming safe- guards negotiations has been established within the International Atomic Energy Agency. Middle East - Africa 13 14 16 17 THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 19 ARAB FEDAYEEN LEADER VISITS PEKING Closer ties between Communist China and Fatah may come in the wake of Yasir Arafat's visit to Peking and Hanoi. It is doubtful, however, that this would result in China's supplying the fedayeen with any significant amounts of heavy arms. SUDAN SUPPRESSES ANSAR UPRISING The Sudanese Government's quelling of the Ansar sect's rebellion last week has dissipated the im- mediate threat to internal security, but alienation of the Ansar will probably stimulate armed resist- ance when the sect regroups its forces. DISSENSION GROWS WITHIN MALI'S RULING COUNCIL Disagreement over relations with France is threaten- ing the unity of Mali's ruling Military Committee of National Liberation; the key issue is acceptance of the conditions to which French aid is tied. 20 21 22 Page ii WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nevi WHITHER RHODESIA? The white minority government in Salisbury remains firmly in power and determined to chart its own pol- itical course despite UK efforts, directly and through the UN, to end the "rebellion." Although no government is likely to recognize Rhodesia's in- dependence soon, sanctions less and less effective. are expected to become Western Hemisphere THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE DOMINICAN POLITICAL STANDOFF CONTINUES The public impasse between President Balaguer and the opposition is still unresolved. GUATEMALA TENSE FOLLOWING DIPLOMAT'S DEATH Guatemalan security forces operating under a newly imposed state of siege continue to comb the capital in search of the terrorists who killed the West German ambassador on Sunday. COLOMBIAN ELECTION WILL BE CLOSE The presidential race between candidates Pastrana and ex-dictator Rojas Pinilla will be close. KIDNAPINGS CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN IN LATIN AMERICA The murder of the West German ambassador to Guatemala by the pro-Castro Revolutionary Armed Forces has in- creased concern in Latin America about kidnapings by terrorist groups. 77reiR44.1:._ Page iii WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Name -sEeRra_ FAR EAST It will be a long time, if ever, before a conference on Indochina as proposed by the French is convened. Indeed, just achieving agreement on the terms �for holding such a meeting among the various antagonists and neutral observers involved seems an almost insurmountable task. Thus far, both Saigon and the Vietnamese Communists are playing it cool. President Thieu has declared that peace must first come to Laos before any settlement can be reached in Vietnam. The Communists have simply avoided making any comment at all, which probably means they need time for thorough consul- tations between the Viet Cong, Hanoi, and Peking. In short, everyone is playing a waiting game. The Cambodian Government seems to have the domestic situation under control. Phnom Penh is confident it has the support of the urban populace, the civil administration, and the security forces, and is beginning to take rapid steps to ensure fuller peasant support in order to prevent serious rural uprisings. The government recognizes it needs peasant support to undercut any efforts by Sihanouk and the Vietnamese Communists to undermine its stability. However, if the government moves too precipitately toward establishing a republican form of government, the task of winning broad peasant support could be complicated to a considerable degree. The North Vietnamese in Laos are continuing to put pressure on government forces flanking the Plaine des Jarres. Both sides are bringing additional reinforcements to bear, and the over-all situation remains critical. The Communists are also moving against a government guerrilla base that has long been a springboard for attacks on Communist supply lines in northern Laos. The atmosphere in Saigon is beginning to heat up again. Veterans' grievances erupted into violence during protests in front of the presidential palace and National Assembly. The government's efforts to calm the situa- tion are being complicated by a continuing student protest, which has the support of some opposition leaders and Buddhists. There is little indication that President Thieu is in a conciliatory mood, and he reportedly intends to ask the assembly for "special powers" to deal with the multitude of eco- nomic problems that are one of the basic causes of the rising level of political discontent. E.L9Frx_ (b)(3) Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 VIETNAM Political Protest Turns Violent in Saigon The level of political discon- tent and agitation in Saigon is again on the rise, with disabled war veterans moving into the lime- light this week. Although the gov- ernment has tried a combination of firmness and conciliation in deal- ing with the veterans, who marched on the presidential palace and on the National Assembly building dur- ing the last few days, it has been unable to prevent violence. Despite orders to exercise restraint, po- lice were forced to use tear gas on several occasions. The veterans have been protesting alleged gov- ernment inattention to their needs, and the fighting erupted after they had rejected a broad government of- fer to provide relief, countering with demands for more concrete ac- tion. The government still hopes that further conciliatory measures will defuse the situation. Presi- dent Thieu has sent draft legisla- tion to the assembly requesting higher benefits for the veterans, and sites suitable for veterans' housing have been located in Saigon. The government appears quite aware that there probably is considerable sympathy for the veterans within the armed forces and that it must therefore handle them with extreme care. Government officials also probably suspect that agitation by the veterans is receiving behind- the-scenes encouragement from gov- ernment critics such as Senator Don, although no evidence of this has been uncovered so far. Government attempts to calm the situation are complicated by the con- tinuing student protest. The stu- dents, who are protesting the ar- rest of several student leaders as alleged Viet Cong agents, have re- solved to continue boycotting their classes until the government either releases or tries the accused in a civil court. The students have picked up support from a number of opposition politicians, some ele- ments of the An Quang Buddhists, university students in Hue and Can Tho, and a large segment of the Sai- gon press. The government's posi- tion that some of the arrested stu- dents must be tried before a mili- tary tribunal rather than in a civil court has probably reinforced the students' determination to continue their protest. Thieu Cool to Indochina Conference The government is showing no enthusiasm for the French proposal for international negotiations to consider together the problems of all of Indochina. Instead, Thieu has recommended addressing any such discussions only to the situation in Laos, declaring that peace must come first to the other areas of In- dochina before a settlement can be achieved in Vietnam. The South Viet- namese remain wary of the French, and they apparently believe that Paris is trying to assist the Com- munists at Saigon's expense. Communists Play it Cool Also For their part, the Vietnam- ese Communists seem to be in no rush to move the Indochina situation Page 2 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nue �%-ti=f4444LIL , into the international diplomatic arena--if indeed they are disposed to do so at all. They have an- nounced no official position on last week's French proposal, which has been ignored in the North Viet- namese press. Communist spokes- men at the Paris talks have dodged the issue under persistent question- ing by newsmen. The Vietnamese Communists pre- sumably are unwilling to turn the proposal down cold, although they have generally held that no outside interference is needed to work out problems in Indochina. They might even discern some advantages in tak- ing a relatively forthcoming atti- tude, such as the possibility that an internationally sanctioned set- tlement would encourage friction be- tween Washington and Saigon or would bring greater pressure on the US to withdraw from the area. On the other hand, the Communists must reckon that any negotiations could inhibit their operations on the ground in Indochina, and they prob- ably would be apprehensive about the prospect of going to the con- ference table with their Soviet and Chinese backers at odds. Hanoi has also taken a de- cidedly negative attitude toward Cambodian requests for interven- tion by the International Control Commission (ICC) or by the UN. The Communists' public line is that this would help the Lon Nol govern- ment retrieve its "isolated and un- stable" situation and divert atten- tion from Washington's "plots" in Indochina. More importantly, Hanoi clearly realizes that the presence of an international ob- server mission in Cambodia or even formal consideration of the situa- tion by the UN could be politically embarrassing and might eventually redound to its detriment in South Vietnam. Military Developments in South Vietnam The latest round of country- wide enemy attacks that began on 31 March continued through 5 April, but has tapered off since. Most of the action consisted of relatively light harassing attacks, although the enemy did inflict severe punish- ment on several allied centers, in- cluding a provincial capital in the southern highlands and a South Viet- namese fire-support �base in the delta. Following the initial wave of some 150 attacks on the night of 31 March, the enemy averaged in the neighborhood of 50 to 60 attacks per day over the next five days. As a result of this intensified action, US combat deaths last week reached 138, the highest figure in six months. The South Vietnamese losses were over 700 killed according to a preliminary count, and enemy combat deaths are believed to have exceeded 3,300. (W(1) (b)(3) the Communists had wanted to make an impressive show of force by overrunning an allied fire-sup- port base or investing some provin- cial capitals. In addition to boosting the morale of their own troops, their recent local victories along these lines have probably shaken the confidence of some South Vietnamese units near the scene of such reverses. On the other hand, 77117t4\14;1:_ fl;e 3 1VEFKI,1 SV \I\1 \1V 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 AM% Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 --A a number of South Vietnamese units have responded aggressively in the latest fighting, seeking out and engaging the enemy. For example, South Vietnamese Army and Regional Force troops reported killing 54 of the enemy not far from the lo- cation of the recently overrun fire-support base. It appears unlikely that the Communists are willing to accept the heavy casualties involved in maintaining the recent high level of attacks over a protracted pe- riod. If this is so, the enemy's latest offensive probably will not result in any permanent damage to the allied military position or even set the government's pacifica- tion program back significantly. Although the series of country- wide attacks seems to have abated, at least for the time being, the enemy has steadily been building up pressure against the allied Special Forces camp at Dak Seang, a remote outpost in the central highlands province of Kontum. Two North Viet- namese regiments that laid siege to the Ben Het and Bu Prang camps last year have moved across the border from Laos and have closed on the Dak Seang position, which is manned largely by montagnard tribesmen and by a few US advisers. South Viet- namese Ranger units, which have per- formed well against previous enemy siege campaigns, have reinforced Dak Seang's defenses and have already fought several sharp engagements. Enjoying strong allied air and ar- tillery support, the rangers claim to have killed several hundred enemy troops in the first days after their arrival there. With respect to the Cambodian bor- der, it appears that the South Viet- namese have modified their rules of engagement. Despite some earlier indi- cations that both South Vietnamese and Cambodian authorities wanted to pre- vent the spread of the war across the border, South Vietnamese forces conducted a ground raid in strength into the "Parrot's Beak" area of Cam- bodia on 5-6 April and a helicopter assault against the same area on 7 April. In view of the sensitivity of such operations, it seems unlikely that these raids, the first of which involved two South Vietnamese battal- ions supported by armor and air strikes were undertaken without high-level approval from Saigon. At least three other cross-border forays were staged by South Vietnamese forces in March after the Cambodian coup. Page 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 CHOU EN-LAI WARMLY Chou En-lai's three-day state visit to Pyongyang has capped a six-month thaw in Sino- Korean relations. He arrived on 5 April just over a week after Peking's new ambassador was received in Pyongyang. This followed the posting of the North Korean ambassador to Pe- king in February, thus ending a two-and-one-half year period during which relations were maintained at the charge level. Relations reached a low point about three years ago in the early months of China's Cultural Revolution when the ambassadors were recalled amidst searing propaganda ex- changes. The thaw first became noticeable last October when Pyongyang sent a delegation headed by President Chae Yong- kon and Foreign Minister Pak Song-chol to China's National Day celebrations. The speeches given by Chou and Kim Il-song during this week's state visit reflect the decision in both capitals to rebuild the relationship by stressing common interests and ignoring differences. Kim emphasized that the two peoples are historically linked together as "blood and flesh" and that victories were won in the past by relying on the strength of unity. He pledged to revive this unity in the future. Both premiers devoted considerable time in their speeches to GREETED IN NORTH KOREA criticism of the expanding role of Japan in Asia, a subject that has received increasing and parallel coverage by both states since the Sato-Nixon communique last November. By common agreement, both officials avoided the sensitive issues of the Sino-Soviet dis- pute. The timing of the Chou visit and the reciprocal speeches warning of Japanese expansion almost certainly are intended by both Peking and Pyongyang as a rebuff, however, to what they view as growing cooperation between Moscow and Tokyo as ex- emplified by recent air transit agreements and joint ventures for the study of the Sea of Japan. From the Chinese point of view, Chou's visit could indicate a return to the style of per- sonal diplomacy favored by Pe- king before the Cultural Revo- lution. China's new diplomatic flexibility, particularly toward its Asian Communist neighbors, appears primarily designed to gain support for its side of the dispute with the USSR. It is unlikely that the rapprochement with Peking will hamper Pyongyang's delicate relations with Moscow because the thaw is almost certainly predicated upon a belated Chinese acceptance of North Korea's independent line in dealings with the two major Communist powers. (b)(3) its Page 5 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 .S.F.C6R+T41.. (b)(3) Enemy tanks spotted Phu Vlen 98161 4-70 CIA LAOS: Current Situation Bouarri-7. Longs NVA be fining to attack, P AINE Norig e xt g Khouarig t Ban Na NVA attack4 ' � repeiied___4271 '-..,, leTha Tem ' ---- leung Same ai Thong0 Government trying t dislodge Communists Tie Heavy shelling 7 Apr. verbment-heldl location . 44. - mmunist-beld lOcation, Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 MILITARY SITUATION IN LAOS REMAINS CRITICAL Communist forces are main- taining pressure against govern- ment positions flanking the Plaine des Jarres, but there has been no major change in the over-all tac- tical situation. In the critical Long Tieng - Sam Thong area south- west of the Plaine, North Vietnam- ese troops renewed their ground attacks against Sam Thong, push- ing to within a mile of its air- strip. Government troops backed by heavy air support repelled the assault, however, and are still holding the base and most of the Sam Thong valley. yang Pao's guerrilla head- quarters at Long Tieng sustained its heaviest shelling in nearly two weeks on 7 April. Casualties and damages were light, however, and there was no sign that the attack might generate an exodus of civilian and military person- nel similar to that which occurred when the base came under siege in mid-March. Another regular army battalion has moved into Long Tieng, raising the total govern- ment complement in the area to approximately 5,700. Government forces continue to patrol the valleys north of the base, but they are still having trouble dislodging Communist forces from the Tha Tam Bleung area. Vang Pao's guerrillas have succeeded, however, in recapturing the nearby base at Khang Kho, which was lost to the enemy last month. The Communists are also mov- ing against Bouam Long, the most important government base north of the Plaine des Jarres. After weeks of reconnaissance and bat- tlefield preparation, enemy troops this week attacked government po- sitions commanding the approaches to Bouam Long. Five enemy com- panies, supported by heavy artil- lery, reportedly participated in the attacks, all of which were successfully beaten back. The action probably marks the start of operations by major elements of the North Vietnamese 312th Di- vision, largely uncommitted thus far in the current offensive, to eliminate Bouam Long as a spring- board for guerrilla operations against Communist supply lines in northern Laos. The North Vietnamese are also demonstrating fresh interest in government positions west of the Plaine. A few enemy tanks have also been spotted moving west- ward along Route 7 near the govern- ment base at Phu Vieng. There is still no evidence of any imminent movement of substantial North Viet- namese forces against these posi- tions, however. Last year, a North Vietnamese battalion threat- ened the road junction at Sala Phou Khoun, and there has been some speculation that the enemy intends to cut Route 13 there, possibly as a prelude to a drive into north- ern Vientiane Province. (b)(3) -SEritf4=- Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Amok lAmbodia Current Situation in the 'Parrot's Beak Karnpang Trach /C attdrk fv)vertmletri (1i?lenses eInforcec) Svay Rieng Threa SOUTH CAMBODIA )y VC 'CAMBODIA �Nom Area o PENH map / Ninh TAY NINH VIETNAM AR V/V cross 1>orcier fOrdy.s Chipou � vacuatorf by Government after VC attack; chontrea. TUONE c N N HIA- 98162 4-70 CIA MILES -"SiteRE-T_ Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 PHNOM PENH TRYING TO BROADEN ITS POWER BASE Government leaders appear satisfied that the internal sit- uation generally is under control and that they have the support of the urban populace, the civil administration, and most security elements. They also recognize, however, that they must take rapid steps to win more peasant support in order to prevent the develop- ment of serious rural "uprisings." Using many of its existing supporters, Phnom Penh has launched a widespread face-to-face campaign to carry its message to the con- servative peasants. There is a possibility, however, that the government's apparent intention to form a republic in the near future may further alienate pro- Sihanouk peasants. Although some officials probably have serious reservations about abolishing the monarchy now for just this reason, government leaders have gone ahead nonetheless and solicited the "ad- vice" of the country on this is- sue. Initial urban popular re- sponse predictably is in favor of a republic. While the government is de- voting its main energies to solid- ifying its domestic control, it probably will try to keep the Vietnamese Communists confined to their base areas on the eastern border. The Communists, meanwhile, have engaged in limited but wide- spread aggressive actions to safe- guard and to extend slightly some of their base areas. Viet Cong elements also have been doing some pro-Sihanouk propagandizing and proselyting along the border. Viet Cong activity was particularly heavy in the "Parrot's Beak" area of Svay Rieng Province. This ac- tivity may have been in response to recent South Vietnamese cross- border operations there. Accord- ing to the South Vietnamese, these operations were being carried out in cooperation with the Cambodians, although the local Cambodian com- manders may have been operating without Phnom Penh's approval. In the longer run, however, the government is still seeking to resume negotiations with the Vietnamese Communists in order to resolve their differences peacefully. Although Prime Min- ister Lon Nol very likely has pre- pared a specific negotiating po- sition, there are no signs that the Vietnamese are interested in talking just now. Peking's belated endorsement of Sihanouk's "libera- tion" movement indicated that the Chinese similarly are determined to keep their distance from the government, at least for the time being. Meanwhile, in another appeal from Peking, Sihanouk for the first time implied that he would return to Cambodia in the "near future." His message on 4 April again asked the Cambodian people to take to the "bush" and wage an armed fi ht against the government. (b)(3) Page 9 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Page 10 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nod EUROPE Moscow's Moscow's failure to provide Sihanouk with the same kind of political and propaganda support he is getting from Hanoi and Peking is further evidence of Soviet dismay over the recent turn of events in Cambodia. The Soviets have gone along with North Vietnam, however, in rejecting the Lon Nol government's proposals to reactivate the ICC and to submit the Cambodian problem to the UN. Although the Soviets say they have asked China for agreement on Vladimir Stepakov as ambassador to Peking, there has been no confirmation from Peking of an agreement to exchange ambassadors. Moscow may believe that continuing the border talks at the ambassadorial level would facilitate the return home of chief negotiator Kuznetsov. Brezhnev, in Budapest for the 25th anniversary of the Hungarian liberation, gave public endorsement to the Kadar leadership for the first time since the Czechoslovak crisis in 1968. There was a hint, however, that Moscow disagrees with Kadar's earlier statement supporting "legitimate national interests." Italian Premier Rumor is expected to receive a vote of confidence soon on his new government and its ambitious legislative program. Only minimal parlia- mentary action is likely, however, prior to local and regional elections, now set for 7 June. The UN General Assembly's outer space committee, meeting this week in Geneva, has been unable to resolve differences over how to complete the draft convention concerning compensation for damage caused by space vehicles. A number of compromises to overcome Soviet objections to binding arbitration are being considered by the committee, which is under pressure from the less- developed countries to produce an agreed convention before the fall session of the assembly. "SreREX__ Page 11 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 USSR MANEUVERS FOR POSITION IN NEXT ROUND OF SALT Private statements by Soviet diplomats since the windup of the Helsinki SALT talks suggest that Moscow is looking toward a quanti- tative agreement that would limit the numbers of offensive and de- fensive missiles, rather than a qualitative agreement restraining improvements such as MIRVs. These statements, as well as press commentary, point toward the ABM system as the key issue for Moscow when the talks resume in Vienna. At the same time, how- ever, the Soviets apparently in- tend to return to subjects that would create difficulty for the US, such as banning the transfer of strategic weapons to third countries and limiting patrols of strategic bombers and subma- rines. The extent to which Mos- cow will press for agreement on these issues is not known. The Soviets have not elaborated on the suggestions they made at Hel- sinki, such as controls against accidental or unauthorized launches of strategic weapons. The Soviets have been least ambiguous on the subject of ABM limitations. Recently, the Soviet press has been trying to create the impression that an agreement on ABM deployment may be the key to getting any agreement at all. An article in Pravda on 7 March-- signed "Observer" to mark its high-level endorsement--summarized Soviet commentary against ABM plans of the US. This is one more indication that such plans may be causing Moscow the most difficulty at this time, but "Observer" stopped short of indicating what Moscow would do about them. The Pravda article, pitched to disarmament audiences in the US and elsewhere, was probably intended to put the onus on the US should the talks fail or bog down. The piece was careful, how- ever, to handle the matter in such a way as not to diminish the pos- sibilit of further negotiation or of an improvement in Moscow's bilateral relations with the US. Moreover, Moscow is still willing to permit its commentators to warn of the potentially harmful effects of US weapons programs on SALT without directly committing Soviet policy to these warnings or set- ting conditions for the Vienna round. Soviet remarks thus far merely reiterate Moscow's support for continuing the talks. Private statements of Soviet diplomats apparently are being used to prompt US initiatives when talks resume on 16 April rather than to reveal features of the Soviet po- sition. The public commentary is calculated to put pressure on the US to slow its weapons deployment. The Soviets probably want to make their own contribution to the SALT discussions--particularly in the areas of ABM, nontransfer of stra- tegic weapons, and strategic equality--but nothing they have said publicly or privately has revealed how they will treat these Page 12 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 --S"te-RF4-T_ ited issues in Vienna. In discussing the three types of possible agree- ment suggested by President Nixon in his "State of the World" ad- dress on 18 February, however, several Soviet diplomats have made it clear that the suggestion concerning the quantitative agree- ment is the most interesting to Moscow. SOVIET OIL SALES TO THE FREE WORLD FALTER The USSR's aggressive oil sales effort in the free world has faltered. The USSR and East- ern Europe are increasing their procurement of oil from the free world to meet a growing demand for petroleum that apparently is outpacing Communist production. Soviet oil sales, which ac- count for most Communist petro- leum exports to the free world, declined by almost three million tons last year. This is the first drop since major sales to the free world began in the late 1950s. The decline probably would have been greater if the USSR had not met some export commitments with about 1.5 million tons of crude acquired from Egypt and Algeria. The So- viets, however, are meeting most of their East European allies' in- creasing needs for petroleum, but, even here, Moscow has urged that supplies be supplemented from the free world. Soviet sales of oil continue to earn more hard currency than any other single export commodity. Last year Soviet deliveries to the (b)(3) free world amounted to 42 million tons, worth $575 million. Sales for hard currency, principally to Western Europe, amounted to $340 million, an estimated decline of $30 million from 1968. These ex- ports represented about seven per- cent of Western Europe's demand. The principal recipients were Italy, Finland, West Germany, and Sweden. Soviet exports to the less developed countries increased slightly last year after several years of decline. Most of the increase occurred in deliveries to Egypt. On a net basis, how- ever, Soviet exports to Egypt were down as the USSR acquired more than one million tons of Egyptian crude from the El Morgan field in the Gulf of Suez. This exchange, which is scheduled to increase this year, probably will continue as long as the Suez Canal remains closed and Egypt's oil economy suffers from domestic im- balances and dislocations. The USSR also supplied almost all of Somalia's small petroleum require- ments and provided over one third Page 13 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 �3reRga: of the petroleum demand in Ghana, Morocco, and Senegal. Soviet oil exports to markets east of Suez, complicated by the canal closure, declined for the third straight year. Exports to Japan, the largest Soviet market in the area, declined 15 percent to about 2.4 million tons. An even greater decline was stemmed by some one million tons of Persian Gulf oil made available through East-West oil exchanges. Sales to India continued to decline, and Ceylon suspended Soviet oil ship- ments completely. Petroleum exports from the USSR and Eastern Europe to the free world in 1970 probably will not exceed the 50 million tons ex- ported last year. Moreover, pro- curement of oil from the free world by these countries may reach be- tween seven million and eight mil- lion tons this year, compared with about four million tons in 1969. Some of this oil probably again will be used to meet the Commu- nists' commitments to their for- eign customers. ANGLO-MALTESE RELATIONS DETERIORATE The economic and political situation in Malta has deter- iorated during the last six months, largely because of an impasse between the government and the British over financial aid. With a general election due within the next year, the pro-Western government of Borg- Olivier is looking for some politically advantageous way of resolving the stalemate in or- der to turn back the challenge of the opposition Malta Labor Party (MLP) led by self-styled neutralist Dom Mintoff. The consequences of an MLP victory could be serious for NATO inter- ests in the Mediterranean country. Page 14 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 -Naraiv' -NS Since the island won inde- pendence in 1964, UK-Maltese re- lations have periodically been strained over UK aid. The British promised at that time to lessen the economic impact of the withdrawal of their troops by closing their installations gradually and by providing fi- nancial aid until 1974 to encour- age expansion of the Maltese economy. For the first few years it was agreed that 75 per- cent of the aid would be in the form of outright grants rather than loans. In 1969, however, London decided that its own eco- nomic problems dictated that funds be distributed on a 50-50 basis. Prime Minister Borg- Olivier refused to accept the decision, and negotiations have been deadlocked since last sum- mer. The economic consequences of this stalemate have become increasingly apparent. Uncer- tainty has hampered all gov- ernment planning, capital invest- ment and public works projects have been delayed, and short- term inflationary borrowing has replaced British funds. Other economic problems, not directly related to the impasse, have also complicated the picture. Un- less the stalemate is resolved, the Maltese Government will have to find new sources of money or curtail its capital development program. It has hinted on sev- eral occasions that if the Brit- ish refuse to give Malta its due there are others--perhaps even outside NATO--who will. The stalemate has also increased anti-British senti- ment among the electorate and uncertainty about the govern- ment's competence. Borg-Olivier's failure to resolve the dispute has made him progressively more moody and difficult. He often alludes to real or imagined slights by the British. London, meanwhile, is flatly refusing to alter its position. It believes that although Borg- Olivier knows that more liberal financial aid terms are not justified, he will not accept the 50-50 proposal because he fears it would put a political weapon in the opposition's hands. In any case, the British attrib- ute Malta's problem to ineffi- ciency, claiming that it misses many opportunities afforded by a growth in tourism and refuses to follow suggestions on economic development made by the UK. Lon- don concedes that the economy has faltered somewhat recently, perhaps as a result of the dis- pute, but it does not believe the political consequences will be far-reaching. Even if the MLP wins the next election, the British expect Mintoff to main- tain Anglo-Maltese relations, including the defense arrange- ments, "because he has to," but believe that he might well sever Malta's ties with NATO. (b)(3) Page 15 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 PANKOW INTENSIFIES PROPAGANDA AGAINST BONN The East German regime, in an effort to combat what it con- siders are popular misconceptions concerning the East - West German summit meetings, has stepped up propaganda attacks against the government in Bonn and against Chancellor Brandt personally. In recent issues of the main party daily, Neues Deutschland, the East Germans have stressed the theme that nothing has changed in West Germany since Brandt became chancellor. They have scored him and other officials for keeping "monopolists and imperialists" in power. Significantly, these attacks no longer include, as ear- lier commentaries did, the state- ment that it is too early to tell whether the Brandt government will act differently from its predeces- sors. Pankow singled out for par- ticular criticism Bonn's advance- ment of the concept that East - West German relations must be of a "special type." Propagandists have continued to insist that Bonn must recognize East Germany, and several regime officials have stressed that at the next summit meeting, Brandt must discuss the East German draft treaty. East Germany has also inten- sified attacks against certain West German laws that its spokes- men claim discriminate against East German citizens. In particu- lar, they have zeroed in on the so- called "handcuff law," passed by the West German Bundestag in 1966, which guaranteed safe passage for East German party representatives who were to participate in a pro- posed "speakers' exchange" with members of the Social Democratic Party. The East Germans used this law as a pretense for aborting the exchange. Pankow has reacted to West German newspaper reports concern- ing the arrest of East Germans after the Erfurt meeting, by deny- ing that any arrests have been made despite the fact that at least 140 people were jailed. The minister of interior also charged that the West German intelligence service has spread such stories to "burden and disturb" the next session of the summit talks, sched- uled for 21 May in Kassel. This campaign is almost cer- tainly aimed at the East German public, and is designed to con- vince the populace that it is the West German side that prevents progress in improving East - West German relations. At the same time, the regime appears to be building a case for breaking off the talks, should it decide that such action is necessary. -Srefk�F4,=-_C. Page 16 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nawi NiS IAEA FACES SAFEGUARDS ISSUES The 26-nation Board of Gover- nors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreed last week to create a special commit- tee to consider the position the agency should take during the forthcoming negotiations with the nonnuclear-weapon states on the safeguards required by the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The negotiations, certain to be tough and prolonged, will be an important test of the ability of the international community to set up effective procedures for verifying compliance with major disarmament commitments. A committee on safeguards mechanisms to prevent the diver- sion of fissionable material from peaceful uses was proposed to the board in February, but the Soviets blocked agreement on the initia- tive at that time. Their consent to the committee's establishment was achieved last week at the cost of leaving vague its pre- cise terms of reference. The USSR is expected to press for strict adherence to the IAEA's so-called draft model agreement with Finland that gives the IAEA a comprehensive inspection role in policing compliance with the safeguards requirements. The six members of the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM), on the other hand, do not want the committee to recommend pro- cedures that might infringe on EURATOM's own safeguards system. Another group of IAEA mem- bers, led by Spain and India, wants the new committee to under- take a complete review of inspec- tion procedures and requirements. They are motivated principally by concern that the NPT safe- guards discriminate against the nonnuclear-weapon countries by exposing their industrial appli- cations of atomic energy to inter- national inspection not required of countries already possessing nuclear weapons. Spain and India would also like to have the com- mittee discuss the problem of how to finance the anticipated increase in required inspections. The board last week did not attempt to deal with the question of its own future membership--an issue that has become increas- ingly contentious in view of the significant new role to be played by the IAEA. Italy wants to expand the board to 33 partici- pants, with itself and West Ger- many--both EURATOM members--hold- ing permanent seats. Moscow also favors an increase of the present membership by seven, but its plan would not give either Rome or Bonn a permanent seat. The board may tackle the expansion issue at its June session. The recent East German re- quest for IAEA safeguards on slightly enriched uranium re- ceived from the Soviet Union poses another thorny problem. Bonn, hoping to emphasize the Soviet-IAEA aspect of any agree- ment, wants the agency to negoti- ate with Pankow in Moscow. Mos- cow is unlikely to accept this, however, because it probably fa- vors an attempt by Pankow to en- hance its international status by sending a high-level delega- tion to Vienna for bilateral ne- gotiations with the IAEA. (b)(3) Page 17 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Page 18 --S-ErKt�gZ_ WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nue �SECRET-- :owe MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA The Israelis are reinforcing their suggestion with almost daily attacks against installations along the canal while leaving the immediate environs of Cairo and Alexan- dria �strictly alone. Egyptian charges that an Israeli aerial attack on 8 April killed 30 schoolchildren brought an immediate denial from the Israelis Elsewhere along the Israeli frontiers, military activity was at a low level, Israel might be ready to permit the resumption of repairs to Jordan's East Ghor Canal. Tentative agreement has been reached for a cease-fire and an interim solution to the eight-year-old Yemeni civil war. Meeting under Saudi auspices, Yemeni republican representatives agreed to end the fighting and to take other measures designed to reconcile the two Yemeni factions. The agreement has yet to be approved by the Yemeni leadership, however, and the problem of defining the eventual status of the Yemeni royalist family must still be solved. Prime Minister Gandhi defeated an adjournment motion in Parliament implying censure of her government for the rough treatment of demonstra- tors by police this week in New Delhi. This was her closest call since the Congress Party split last November, and her prestige has suffered at least a short-term setback. Pakistani President Yahya Khan's constitutional proposals are being sharply criticized in East Pakistan. The Awami League of influential Bengali politician Mujibur Rahman is deeply dissatisfied with the provisions giving the President extensive powers over the constituent assembly. A key ques- tion now is whether the mutual confidence built up between Mujib and Yahya will erode and jeopardize the political stability of the country. Dahomey's inept and divided army officers this week continued their search for a solution to the country's deepening political crisis. The threat of another military coup or serious street violence is increasing as each of the three civilian kin-mins still insists on his own version of a settlement to the current impasse. -Sreft-E-1_ (b)(3) Page 19 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 ARAB FEDAYEEN LEADER VISITS PEKING Yasir Arafat's recent two- week trip to Communist China and North Vietnam may be the prelude to closer Sino-fedayeen ties. Peking, apparently seeking to widen its influence among the Arabs and simultaneously to under- cut the Soviets, underscored its interest in the fedayeen movement by according Arafat an official reception during his visit in late March. Premier Chou En-lai led the list of high civilian and military leaders who hosted ban- quets in his honor. This was in sharp contrast with Arafat's Feb- ruary visit to Moscow where, al- though he probably met members of the Soviet hierarchy, his visit received no official publicity, and his host was a nongovernmental group. The relative nonproductivity of Arafat's Moscow visit may have provided the impetus for his Asian trip, which apparently was de- cided on short notice. It is doubtful, however, that Arafat was any more successful in wheed- ling significant amounts of heavy arms from Peking than he was from Moscow. Aside from a possible in- crease in the training of feday- een, any gains Arafat may have made in Peking will be largely political. China has long been vocal in its support of the Pal- estinian cause, which it views as a national liberation movement, and has already increased its pro- fedayeen propaganda. Although this might be of little immediate prac- tical value to his cause, Arafat could use closer ties with Peking as a means to play off one Com- munist power against the other. The coming months may therefore see him attempting to emphasize ties with Peking. Meanwhile, there has been a relative lull in threats of international activity by the more radical commando groups since the two airliner explos- ions they claimed credit for in late February. Nevertheless, these groups need publicity to bolster their fund raising, and the wide press coverage given to the kid- naping of diplomats in Latin Amer- ica could lead organizations such as the Popular Front for the Lib- eration of Palestine to buoy their sagging fortunes by further spec- tacular acts, including the kid- naping of prominent figures. Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Noe 'NNW 77EttR44L_ SUDAN SUPPRESSES ANSAR UPRISING The Sudanese Government's quelling of the Ansar sect's rebellion last week has dissi- pated the immediate threat to internal security. At the same time, alienation of the Ansar is now total and will probably stimulate armed resistance when the sect regroups its forces. Although the Numayri regime has apparently won the first round, the reaction to the fall of Aba by the some three million Ansar may confront the govern- ment with continued armed resist- ance. Furthermore, the killing of the Imam, the spiritual leader of the sect, has shattered the prospect for an Ansar-government reconciliation for a long time to come. The Ansar, currently leader- less and in disarray, will prob- ably turn to underground activ- ity for the time being. The immediate problem confronting them is the selection of a suc- cessor to the Imam. Most of the members of the Imam's immediate family, the likely candidates, are either under detention or out of the country. The exile to Egypt earlier this week of Sadiq al Mandi, the Imam's nephew and a former prime minister who has been in confinement since the coup of May 1969, underscores the lengths to which the regime has gone to deny the Ansar a leader around whom they might rally. Nevertheless, it seems likely that the Ansar will even- tually regroup and find a new leader. The crushing of the Ansar uprising demonstrated the capa- bility of the regime, armed with the weapons of modern warfare, to deal with dissident tribal elements and will deter other groups--including other Muslim sects, students, the professional classes and some armed forces officers--currently disaffected by the government's radical leftist leadership and policies. The uprising, however, dramatized the ruling Revolutionary Council's failure to come to terms with an important traditionalist group whose alienation has pre- vented a national consensus in support of the government. Page 21 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 APN k J. DISSENSION GROWS WITHIN MALI'S RULING COUNCIL Disagreement over relations with France is threatening the unity of Mali's ruling Military Committee of National Liberation (MCNL). The key issue is accept- ance of the conditions France has tied to its aid. French aid to Mali's stag- nant economy is contingent upon Bamako's reforming its socialist economy along lines specified in a series of Franco-Malian accords signed in 1967. Reforms include reorienting Mali's trade toward France, balancing the budget, in- itiating an austerity program, and reforming unproductive state enterprises. The eventual goal is Mali's full reintegration into Lhe franc zone. The reforms were originally accepted out of financial neces- sity, by the radical regime of former President Modibo Keita. The army leaders who ousted him in November 1968 immediately re- affirmed Mali's adherence to the accords,, but in practice the MCNL has been slow to implement the. changes. France, although basically well disposed to Mali's govern- ment, has grown increasingly im- patient with this situation. In January, Paris bluntly stated its displeasure, reportedly arousing bitterness on both sides. The next regular meeting be- tween French and Malian officials on the accords is coming up soon, probably this month, and the MCNL has been meeting feverishly in an effort to draft an economic pro- gram. A minority of committee members is pressing hard for closer collaboration with France, but most are reluctant to accede fully to French demands. There is strong domestic opposition to such a course, focused particu- larly on the fate of the state enterprises. Although many are in fact uneconomic, left-leaning labor unions and powerful groups within the overstaffed civil serv- ice are either ideologically com- mitted to the state system or fear reforms would cost them their jobs. Additionally, some MCNL members regard the conditions placed on French aid as a threat to Mali's policy of nonalignment and, ulti- mately, to Malian independence. Despite these problems, Mali's leaders have few realistic choices other than compliance with French demands. Mali is a poor country, even by African standards, and France is the only government able and willing to provide aid in the required amounts. 75711tfil-14-411_ (b)(3) Page 22 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nom, WESTERN HEMISPHERE HEMISPHERE Violence dominated the news in Latin America this week, with most countries expressing shock over the murder of the West German ambassador to Guatemala. In Nicaragua two pro-Castro guerrillas and one National Guard officer were killed as the government continued its counterinsurgency effort. The government has managed to keep the guerrillas off balance, but they are still capable of staging occasional terrorist incidents. In Chile, Salvador Allende, the presidential candidate of the Communist Socialist front, said that he was dismayed by the violence that had taken place at campaign rallies of the conservative, Jorge Alessandri. Allende feared that Alessandri might be harmed personally, and that continued violence might cause some of his own more moderate supporters to withdraw their backing. In three countries actions and statements by government leaders have had a harmful impact on foreign investment. Peruvian President Velasco told a meeting of Latin American industrialists that the state must play a greater role in bringing about reform and curbing foreign economic influence. He suggested setting a fixed term for reversion of foreign corporate investment to the state after the investment and an "acceptable amount" of profit has been recovered. Prime Minister Burnham of Guyana attacked foreign aid, including US assistance, and strongly criticized private investment and for- eign banks. He demanded 51 percent equity in future foreign investment projects in forests and minerals. The Panamanian Government is intensifying its efforts to gain popular support, even at the expense of further alienating the business community. The government has taken over workmen's com- pensation insurance and is considering establishing a government monopoly over the importation of medicine and foodstuffs. The Caribbean Commonwealth Heads of Government Conference is scheduled for the week of 13 April in Jamaica. Regional integration will be one of the main subjects on the formal agenda, but principal topics of interest in backroom discussions will revolve around proposals of Trinidad's Prime Minister Williams for integrating Cuba into the hemisphere and the future of black power in the Caribbean. Guyana will probably cast about for support in its border dispute with Venezuela. Several of the Caribbean leaders have recently been making determined efforts to increase their personal prestige, and this may hamper cooperation. Page 23 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 _411J*4 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Ap�A -Sterg DOMINICAN POLITICAL The public impasse between President Balaguer and the opposi- tion parties threatening to boycott the 16 May elections has provoked further political violence and labor unrest. The President's tough re- sponse to disturbances, however, seems likely to dampen the opposi- tion's enthusiasm for a showdown at this time. STANDOFF CONTINUES Last weekend, the President re- sponded to the increased agitation, which has included shooting inci- dents and widespread disorders, by closing schools in the urban areas until June. The government also re- portedly took control of hospitals where services had been disrupted by a doctor's strike. As rumors of a pending general strike mounted, the military on 7 April backed Balaguer's hard stand by closing off the na- tional university with armored ve- hicles and raiding and occupying the headquarters of some of the princi- pal leftist labor organizations. In a joint armed forces communique', the military commanders warned they would crush violence from any quarter. Sev- eral professional organizations none- theless declared a 24-hour strike at midweek to demand an end to repres- sion, and the extreme left reportedly was still attempting to organize widespread work stoppages. In typical fashion, Balaguer tempered his pressure tactics by establishing a civilian commission to investigate charges of interfer- ence in the electoral process. Lead- ing church figures called for a dial- ogue, and Balaguer has indicated that he is willing to talk with opposi- tion leaders. They continue to de- mand that he resign for the remainder of his term or they will abstain from the elections. Late in the week, Foreign Minis ter Fernando Amiami Tio and his brother were acting as in- termediaries in an effort to provide a face-saving way to move toward a compromise. There are several indications that at least some of the members of the opposition bloc are not yet ready to abandon the electoral route. Ini- tial reporting on the negotiations suggests that although the parties are still pressing demands that Bal- aguer will find unacceptable, such as the exiling of top-ranking mili- tary figures, their requirements are highly negotiable. Balaguer is prob- ably counting on weaning at least one or two of the more moderate mem- bers away from the seemingly tenuous seven-party front. He will probably sweeten any public compromise with an under-the-table offer of campaign funds. The note of cautious optimism occasioned by the beginning of the negotiations has been somewhat off- set by the surprise announcement that former President Juan Bosch will return to the country next week. Bosch, the leader of the major oppo- sition Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD), was overthrown by the military in 1963. He has reneged on plans to end his self-imposed exile in the past, but the formal announcement by his party suggests his return is more likely this time. President Bala- guer has often stated that he would Page 2 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 welcome Bosch's return, but in the Under the present conditions, present situation it will generate major disturbances could force all further uneasiness and harden the the disputants to harden their posi- already prevalent military distrust tions and place the elections them- of the PRD. selves in jeopardy. GUATEMALA TENSE FOLLOWING DIPLOMAT'S DEATH Guatemalan security forces operating under a newly imposed state of siege continue to comb the capital in search of the ter- rorists who killed the West Ger- man ambassador on Sunday. There is fear in the city--and among the diplomatic corps particu- larly--that the terrorists will attempt further kidnapings and assassinations. Rumors of more abductions and of an impending coup are rife. President-elect Carlos Arana's right-wing National Lib- eration Movement is again preoc- cupied with the fear that leftist colonels will seize the govern- ment before 1 July, when Arana is to take office.' \ The known hostility between Arana and the commanders of the two major troop concentrations in the capi- tal is the basis for the right- ists' concern. The majority of the ranking military officers, however, are believed to support him. The Communists' demands for the release of 22 prisoners in exchange for the German ambassa- dor's life placed the Mendez gov- ernment under serious strain, and the President's ultimate refusal to acquiesce more than likely re- sulted from strong military pres- sure. Police and military offi- cers have been principal targets of the terrorists, and a number of security personnel were killed in the capture of the guerrillas now under arrest. The military has been embarrassed by the con- tinuing terrorism and by the ab- sence of major breakthroughs in the Communist net, and has also been impatient with Mendez' re- luctance to launch a significant antiterrorist effort. President Mendez' ability to complete his final three months will probably depend on his giv- ing a free hand, including the use of harsh methods, to the armed forces in their counterter- rorist attack. With tight secu- rity in effect, the Communist groups may slow their activities to targets of opportunity. (b)(3) (b)(1) (b)(3) the level of violence is likely to remain high. The muti- lated corpse of a leftist poli- tician was found on Wednesday after an anonymous caller described it as "the first installment" of re- taliation for the German ambassa- dor's death. (b)(3) Page 25 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 4111111. -1 ) COLOMBIAN ELECTION WILL BE CLOSE With barely one week left before the general elections on 19 April, it still looks as though the presidential race between of- ficial National Front candidate Misael Pastrana and ex-dictator General Gustavo Rojas Pinilla will be close. The other two candi- dates, Evaristo Sourdis and Beli- sario Betancur, are far behind. Pastrana's support- ers are now more optimistic that he may win a slim plurality in the voting, but the margin is so small that the outcome is still uncertain. General Rojas is expected to do well in Bogota and possi- bly in other large urban areas. During a rally held in the capi- tal's central square on 4 April, 40,000-50,000 spectators gave Rojas an enthusiastic reception. The political factions represented by the presidential candidates now are giving final approval to the election slates for Congress (108 national sena- tors and 204 representatives will be elected), departmental assem- blies, and municipal councils. There is likely to be a prolifer- ation of electoral lists as a re- sult of intragroup divisions, which will, at a minimum, result in voter confusion. In the meantime, the military and police are preparing for pos- sible disturbances after the elec- tions. The greatest threat to public order will come if Rojas loses by a small margin because he probably would then declare fraud and could call his followers into the streets. The US Embassy in Bogota believes that the secu- rity forces would be able to re- store public order in such an eventuality. The mili- tary's publicly stated position, however, is that thy will accept the popular will. Page 26 WEEKLY SUMNI-MY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 -St-e-PrEaL_ NIS KIDNAPINGS CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN IN LATIN AMERICA The murder of the West German ambassador to Guatemala by the pro-Castro Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) has increased con- cern in Latin America about kid- napings by terrorist groups. Chilean President Frei linked the killing to the spread of violence generally and pointed out that the mass media encourage such action by making "terrorists sound like heroes." A Peruvian news- paper called the incident "a crime that shames the Americas." Moscow termed the murder a "trag- edy," but went on to say the rightist forces intended to use� it as a pretext to "crush any op- position." There have been exceptions, however, to this general condemna- tion Cuba has described the killing as a "revolutionary execu- tion." When the Venezuelan Cham- ber of Deputies passed a resolu- tion deploring the murder, the Communist Party secretary general suggested that the Guatemalan Government be equally censured and attributed the ambassador's death to the existence of govern- ments like those in Guatemala, Argentina, and Brazil, "which trample on human rights.." A Chil- ean Communist has insinuated that the German was killed by rightists as part of a sinister "grand de- sign" to provoke anti-Communist terror in Latin America. The ex- treme left in Mexico calls the murder the result of an "oppres- sive system." A number of diplomats in Latin America as well as political leaders believe that one method of dealing with such kidnapers would be to threaten to execute the prisoners whose exchange is demanded. Military men in some countries are known to be upset about releasing prisoners who have been captured at great risk. Some may come to believe the solu- tion is to kill extremists rather than capture them, as the govern- ment would then have no one to ex- change. Should such measures be widely adopted, hostility between extremists and security services would become even greater. This problem is especially likely to arise in Brazil, where an attempt was made on 4 April to kidnap the US consul in Porto Alegre. Some suspects have been arrested and have revealed in- formation about the perpetrators. Fearing a repetition of previous cases, the security services may decide to murder the implicated extremists. In Argentina, which is the only Latin American country to defy kidnapers successfully, a Foreign Ministry official likened the present .situation to a war where everyone has to take his chance, even though a few more foreign representatives may initially lose their lives. The Argentine Government plans to seek OAS action to help curb the present wave of "diplonapings." The government will sound out other countries on the possibil- ity of denying political asylum to persons involved in terrorism. Argentina has had such a law on Page 27 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 the books since 1963, but the government fears that some coun- tries will oppose watering down Latin America's traditional rec- ognition of asylum. Uruguay has publicly supported the move, however. Mexico, where all released prisoners have gone initially, claims that its embassy in Guate- mala has been threatened by right- wing extremists if it continues to accept the ransomed terror- ists. The government plans to maintain its policy on granting asylum, however. A number of countries, in- cluding Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, and Ecuador have taken extra measures to protect foreign dip- lomats. In some cases these new responsibilities may stretch secu- rity forces beyond their capabili- ties. The Brazilian Foreign Minis- try, however, has criticized the US consul in Porto Alegre, alleging that he had dispensed with his extra police protection shortly before the attempt to kidnap him was made. Kidnaping is likely to con- tinue--the Guatemalan ambassador in Washington has even been threatened. A recent publication of the Afro- Asian - Latin American Solidarity Organization reprinted a manual on urban terroism by Carlos Mari- ghella, the Brazilian leftist leader whose organization engi- neered the kidnaping of Ambassa- dor Elbrick in Brazil and who later was killed by police. Mari- ghella wrote that the object of kidnaping was to obtain the ex- change or freedom of prisoners as well as to end the use of tor- ture by police. He added that the most valuable victims would be police, US representatives, political figures, or "notorious enemies of the revolutionary movement." These ideas fit in with statements by the captors of the Japanese consul general in Sao Paulo. They said that they had hoped to abduct a high- ranking Brazilian military offi- cer but, because security was too tight, had switched to a dip- lomat. They told him that he had been chosen because of the impor- tance of Japan and the large Japa- nese population in Brazil. Page 28 WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 �411.4 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Am' Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 %sari DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY SUMMARY Special Report Whither Rhodesia? -Secret- N.q 43 10 April 1970 No. 0365/70A (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 SPECIAL - SPECIAL REPORTS are supplements to the Current Intelli- gence Weeklies issued by the Office of Current Intelligence. The Special Reports are published separately to permit more comprehensive treatment of a subject. They are prepared by the Office of Current Intelligence, the Office of Economic Re- search, the Office of Strategic Research, and the Directorate of Science and Technology. Special Reports are coordinated as appropriate among the Directorates of CIA but, except for the normal substantive exchange with other agencies at the working level, have not been coordinated outside CIA unless specifically indicated. WARNING The SPECIAL REPORT contains classified information affect- ing the national defense of the United States, within the mean- ing of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. GROUP 1 I Excluded from automatic downgrodin9 and declassification 571-Eett-ga: Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 JC, *401 (b)(3) WHITHER RHODESIA? "The white man is master of Rhodesia. He has built it and he intends to keep it." Prime Minister Ian Smith The white minority government in Salisbury remains firmly in power and determined � to chart its own political course despite the efforts of the United Kingdom, directly and through the United Nations, to end the Rhodesian "rebellion," By 1969, in fact, Rhodesia's economy had recovered enough from economic sanctions to permit Prime Minister Ian Smith to forgo further talks with London. Early this year, the government implemented a republican constitution that severs all remaining ties with the British Crown and institu- tionalizes white rule. Although no government is likely to recognize Rhodesia's inde- pendence soon, sanctions are expected to become less and less effective as time goes on. Smith and Acting President Proclaim Rhodesia a Republic Africans today outnumber whites in Rhodesia by better than 20 to 1, yet most of them, notwithstanding their many real grievances, remain withdrawn and indifferent to politics. This is partly the result of stringent government security controls, but it is the case also because most Africans are still more concerned about scratching out a living from the soil than about what goes on in the country at large. The rapid growth of the African population, with resulting land shortages and rising urban unemployment, could eventually create severe social and political strains. These problems, however, may not become critical for a generation or more. Meanwhile, although guerrilla insurgency will probably continue intermittently, the nationalists do not pose a serious threat for the foreseeable future. S pecial Report 1 10 April 1970 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(3) RHODESIA MOVES FURTHER RIGHT As long as Prime Minister Smith sought a negotiated settlement with the United Kingdom, Rhodesia's political future remained unclear. His decision last year to forgo further talks with the Wilson government and to proceed with a new constitution�approved by referendum in June 1969 and finally put into effect in March of this year�ended much of the uncertainty. The new constitution ensures continued white supremacy rule, short of revolution. Rhodesian politics have always been to the right in the political spectrum, but the new con- stitution moves Rhodesia closer than ever before to the policy of separate racial development practiced by its neighbor, the Republic of South Africa. Under the 1961 constitution, eventual African majority rule was a possibility. The RHODESIA: From Colony to Republic November 1965 Rhodesia unilaterally de- clares itself independent from the UK. December 1966 UN invokes selective man- datory economic Sanctions against Rhodesia. May 1968 UN invokes comprehensive mandatory economic sanc- tions against Rhodesia. June 1969 Rhodesia's republican con- stitution is approved by referendum. March 1970 . Rhodesia becomes a re- public. Special Report present constitution provides for eventual parity between the races in the Rhodesian parliament, but it ensures that such parity is unattainable, possibly for centuries. Accompanying the new constitution are a number of acts that sharply draw the lines be- tween the races. Franchise qualifications, for example, are now based not only on property, income, and education, but for the first time on race as well. Europeans are restricted to voting only for European candidates, and Africans can vote only for African candidates. The Land Tenure Act divides the land almost equally be- tween Rhodesia's 228,000 whites and its more than 4.8 million blacks. Although land holdings and constituencies were, in practice, already divided largely by race, these new measures make any constitutional change in a more liberal direction incomparably more difficult than be- fore. The constitution also gives the government normally powers it previously had only in times of emergency and only under parliamentary supervision, such as censorship and preventive detention without trial. Moreover, the bill of rights, originally designed by the British to protect African political and civil rights, is rendered meaningless by eliminating judicial re- view of constitutional questions. This course, set by the ruling Rhodesia Front party, has the overwhelming approval of white voters. In fact, Rhodesia has become nearly a one-party state. The front won all 50 white constituency seats in 1965, and it will probably do so again in this month's general election. It is opposed by the moderate Centre Party, which su pports multiracialism, and the ultrarightist Republican Alliance, which wants full apartheid. Neither party has appreciable support, and their chances of winning more than one or two seats are nil. - 2 - 10 April 1970 ""SrErlit.+7,/ Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 The silent majority of Africans-80 percent of whom live in rural areas�take little part in national politics. Only about 8,000 Africans are even registered to vote. The African voice in par- liament is muffled and ineffectual, with member- ship limited now to eight directly elected repre- sentatives and eight members selected by tribal chiefs and rural councils. Most Africans, in fact, are still governed by their tribal leaders, who in turn act as agents for the white government in Salisbury. There is probably substantial residual sup- port for the proscribed nationalist movements among blacks in urban areas. Fearful of the police and its ubiquitous network of informers, how- ever, and disdainful of the few African parties that try to compete legally within the system, most supporters of the nationalists have with- drawn from politics altogether. Members of the small African elite in particular steer clear of antigovernment activity to avoid jeopardizing their relatively high-paying jobs in the white- controlled economy. THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT The closing of the US Consulate and other Western missions in March following Rhodesia's shift to republican status was a blow to the Smith government's hopes for early de facto recogni- tion. South Africa and Portugal, whose assistance has prevented Rhodesia from being crippled by sanctions, continue to maintain close relations with Salisbury. Even they, however, are unlikely to extend formal recognition soon because it would only focus unwanted attention on them- selves, particularly at the United Nations. In the meantime, Rhodesia will probably concentrate mainly on expanding its commercial ties with other states. Special Report - 3 - (b)(3) A new round of negotiations with London is still possible, but this depends largely on whether the Conservative Party wins the general election that is expected in the UK later this year. There is a great deal of sympathy among party members, particularly among Conservative Party right- wingers, for their "kith and kin," the Rhodesian whites. Although party leaders would like to reach a settlement, even they would probably find the price too high. Smith is unlikely to concede much now in return for formal recog- nition and an end to sanctions because Rhodesia's economy is doing so well. THE "ECONOMIC WAR" Economic sanctions have fostered a kind of war psychology among Rhodesian whites since 1965, and reminders of this "economic war" are often heard from political leaders. The govern- ment still holds its economic statistics closely, and prosecutes offenders for disclosing trade data. Rather than bringing Rhodesia to terms, the sanc- tions have stiffened the resolve of most whites to resist and have united them solidly behind Prime Minister Smith and his government. The trade embargo had its greatest impact in 1966. Tobacco, until then Rhodesia's largest for- eign exchange earner, and some other agricultural products were particularly hard hit. Exports con- tinued to decline slowly through 1968. Last year, however, the economy showed definite signs of recovery. National income rose for the third year in a row, and exports increased for the first time since Rhodesia declared itself independent. 10 April 1970 I Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Alak This strong showing is in large part the result of booms in manufacturing and mining. Spurred by import restrictions, Rhodesia's manufacturing sector has diversified and expanded at a rapid pace in the last few years. Only the mining industry�which now produces asbestos, chrome, petalite, copper, pig iron, gold, and nickel�is expected to grow faster than manufacturing during the 1970s. The substantial increase in exports�perhaps as high as 20 percent above 1968�is probably attributable mainly to the growing skill of Rhodesian businessmen in evad- ing economic sanctions. As the demand increases for Rhodesian goods, particularly mineral products, more and more holes are likely to appear in the sanctions dike. Similarly, the recent UN Security Council decision to extend manda- tory sanctions to include Rhodesia's transport links with the outside world cannot be enforced effectively. Special Report Some economic problems will continue to plague Rhodesia, however. Probably the most important of these is African unemployment. Between 30 and 40 thousand Africans leave school and enter the labor market each year, but the total number of jobs in the cash economy has changed little in the last decade. Employment will rise, now that the economy is beginning to grow again. It will not increase fast enough, however, to accommodate much of the growing labor sup- ply as long as white labor unions, with the support of the government, continue to bar blacks from most skilled jobs. Unless more blacks are trained for the skilled and professional trades, moreover, shortages in skilled manpower will hold back economic development. This is a price, however, that the whites seem willing to pay. One obvious partial solution to the lack of jobs is to encourage African peasants to turn from subsistence to cash-crop farming and to related industries. So far, however, the government has taken only modest steps in this direction. In 1968 it set up the Tribal Trust Development Corpora- tion, which last year it gave $580,000 for the development of feeder roads, irrigation projects, and marketing cooperatives. Rhodesian business leaders and the chairman of the corporation have indicated that much more will be needed if Africans are to be brought fully into the money economy and unemployment significantly allevi- ated. Whether the government is willing to commit more to this effort is doubtful. GUERRILLA INSURGENCY In January 1970, after a 16-month lull in guerrilla activity, a small group of Rhodesian nationalists crossed the Zambezi River from Zambia and attacked a border police post and the -4- 10 April 1970 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nre (b)(3) A4 Binge zdoria Falls Wankie MATABE NO T RHODESIA (U. K.) International boundary - Province boundary (:) National capital 0 Province capital Railroad 981464.70 Special Report -011rundu eany Junction Sh - 5 - LAND NORTH FROM SALISBURY) Kildonan Umvum Selukwe "Fort ictori Di , ietbridge �� Lake Kyle SBURY lnyanga Mel ter 10 April 1970 , Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Ask -"Sreft--12,-T. (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 PM, Victoria Falls airport. Even though only one policeman was killed and only minor damage was inflicted on the airport, it was the nationalists' most dramatic and successful raid since insur- gency began almost four years ago. Prime Minister Smith, under pressure to strike back militarily, for the first time publicly warned Zambia to discontinue its aid to the guerrillas. Although Rhodesian military forces could have wiped out the guerrillas' holding bases in Zambia, Smith was reluctant to order them into action because of the unfavorable publicity and international pressures that would result. Subsequently, Rhodesian security forces killed or captured most of the raiding party and also part of another small group that tried to infiltrate at about the same time. A few of the guerrillas crossed into Botswana just ahead of pursuing police units, only to be promptly ar- rested by Botswana authorities. The outcome of this counterinsurgency operation illustrates the way the guerrilla war in Rhodesia has gone in the past and how it is likely to go for a long time to come. Special Report OUTLOOK Many observers consider Rhodesia a racial time bomb. They point to the already large ratio of blacks to whites, and to the fact that the African population will double in only 20 years. As a result, periodic food shortages and increasing pressures on available land in tribal areas are likely to grow more severe, and may lead to widespread rural unrest. In the cities, African discontent will be further intensified by rising unemployment. In the early 1960s, the nation- alists drew extensive support from urban areas. When they resorted to violence, however, the government easily asserted its authority. Since then, the nationalists have been forced to operate largely from exile, and most of the rest of the African population has remained apathetic. Rhodesian whites, consequently, are certain to retain a hammer lock on political power for the foreseeable future. In addition, the economy is now beginning to overcome the effects of sanc- tions, and will probably expand at a healthy rate during the 1970s. - 6 - 10 April 1970 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Ask AnkA, Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) -SEGREZ_ Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 (b)(1) (b)(3) Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Nft�i -"nt6-14.E1_ Page WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 �4w, (b)(1) (b)(3) Page i -7re*f44.:_ WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387 -"Stel)r�UX__ Page i i i WEEKLY SUMMARY 10 Apr 70 Approved for Release: 2023/03/28 CO2967387