CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02906701
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2017
• Case Number: F-2017-01214
• Publication Date: December 17, 1971

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
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No Foreign Discern
Central Intelligence tulletin
'Sncret,
N2 573
17 December 1971
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The C E NT RAI, INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing On issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, mid other senior government officials. it
is produced ill consultation with the l)epartments of State and Delevse.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof ac pro-
deeed by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
inunediatc and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information And more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may he designated specifically
for no fuTther dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, hdl1 only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, .31' the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
dowr.jrading and
declassification
setit4
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No. 0301/71
17 December 1971
Central Intelligence tulletin
CONTENTS
INDIA-PAKISTAN: The Pakistanis have not yet indi-
cated whether they will accept a cease-fire in the
West. (Page 1)
JAPAN: Position on trade liberalization under prep-
aration. (Page 3)
(b)(1)
ZAMBIA: Strength of new opposition party to be
clarified in by-elections, (Page 5)
MAURITIUS: Government and opposition are nearing
a showdown. apage 6)
JAPAN: Textile sales to US (Page 7)
CANADA: Exports to US (Page 7)
ROMANIA-EGYPT: New Romanian aid package (Page 7)
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: Pakistan has not yet indicated
whether it will accept a cease-fire on the western
front, where a unilateral Indian cease-fire is
scheduled to go into effect at 0930 EST today.
Although most of the front in the West was rel-
atively quiet yesterday, heavy fighting continued
in the Sialkot sector around the Pakistani town of
Shakargarh. Tanks reportedly have been used exten-
sively in the area, and casualties on both sides
have apparently been heavy.
In the East, a few isolated Pakistani units,
cut off from radio contact with Dacca, were still
holding out yesterday, but they are expected to ca-
pitulate once they receive word of General Niazi's
surrender. Early this morning the Indians claimed
that some of these elements had surrendered. In
Dacca, US officials report that no one is yet in
effective control of the city. Many people there
reportedly were being killed and wounded as a re-
sult of fighting between Bengalis and scattered
West Pakistanis and collaborationists. General
Jacob, India's chief of staff in the East, said he
will impose martial law as soon as sufficient rein-
forcements arrive, in order to prevent further
bloodletting.
In New Delhi an Indian spokesman said that the
new Bangla Desh civil administration would take over
today. He added, however, that Indian forces will
remain in the area for an indefinite period to help
restore "normalcy," rehabilitate public utilities,
and repatriate refugees.
At almost the same time yesterday that Mrs.
Gandhi announced the news of the surrender of Paki-
stani forces in the East to a cheering parliament,
President Yahya Khan delivered a defiant speech to
the nation. The US Embassy in Islamabad believes
that the speech could have been designed to lay the
groundwork for continuing the war, but that it could
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bullvtm 1
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-calso be read as an effort to muffle Pakistan's de-
feat and begin the painful process of preparing the
people to accept the loss of the East and the neces-
sity .00f terminating the war in the West. (CONFIDEN-
TIAL)
17 Dec 71
Cen,trat Intelligence Bulletin 2
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JAPAN: Tokyo is preparing a position on trade
liberalization to be offered if the Group of Ten
meeting in Washington this weekend is successful.
Prime Minister Sato has appointed State Min-
ister Kimura, the director general of the Economic
Planning Agency, to head a task force to draw up
responses to US positions put forward in Honolulu
last weekend. Inter-ministerial agreement regarding
these responses probably will not be reached until
the cabinet meets today. Recommendations, however,
include significant increases in quotas alloted to
US exporters of oranges, citrus juices, and high-
quality beef. Further concessions are probably
under discussion.
According to US Embassy officials in Tokyo,
the concessions are likely to be offered only if
it appears the Group of Ten meeting will be suc-
cessful in solving the world monetary realignment.
Japan reportedly fears that any offer it makes now
would be accepted by the US and that, if no monetary
agreement is reached, further pressure would be ap-
plied when Prime Minister Sato meets with President
Nixon in San Clemente in early January. This fear
is based on events following the US-Japanese meet-
ings in September. At that time the US accepted
certain trade concessions offered by Japan but later
requested further concessions when no monetary solu-
tion was reached. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
4
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
"4-
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ZAMBIA: Parliamentary by-elections scheduled
for 20 December are expected to shed some light on
the strength of the new opposition United Progres-
sive Party (UPP).
Only 11 of 110 seats are to be contested, but
Zambian leaders are anxiously awaiting the outcome
of five races where the UPP--whose support comes
from tribal groups in northern Zambia--is challeng-
ing President Kaunda's ruling United National In-
dependence Party (UNIP). Simon Kapwepwe, a once
powerful government leader, bolted UNIP and the
cabinet last August to head the UPP, and the by-
elections will provide the first test of his own
popular support. In the other six constituencies,
UNIP is running against the African National con-
gress, an older tribal-based party that has been
incapable of seriously challenging UNIP's national
control.
Meanwhile, Kaunda is considering the imposi-
tion of a one-party state regardless of the elec-
tion results. Kapwepwe's defection seriously dis-
turbed government leaders, and early this week
Kaunda strongly suggested that Zambia must now
take this step. Although he has made clear his
preference for a single party before, his latest
statement is the strongest indication to date
that he may ban opposition parties rather than
wait for traditional tribal loyalties to disappear.
Kaunda has become increasingly dismayed at the
resilience of tribalism and at the bitter tribal
factionalism that often plagues UNIP and the gov-
ernment. He also believes that political unity is
needed now to help the government combat growing
economic ills as well as the security threat posed
white southern African governments. (CONFIDEN-
TIAL)
17 Dec 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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MAURITIUS: Prime Minister Ramgoolam's coali-
tion government and Paul Berenger's opposition Mauri-
tian Movement (MMM) are nearing a showdown over
Berenger's continuing use of labor action to force
the government's resignation.
The LMM has called a gen4.ral strike among its
supporting unions in reaction to a recently adopted
restrictive labor law clearly aimed at ending the
ten-day old strike among pro-MMM dockworkers. In
response, the government is preparing to invoke
emergency powers that would allow it to arrest limm
leaders.
The indecisive Ramgoolam, the head of a dis-
credited and divided government, probably still hopes
for some sort of compromise with the increasingly
powerful MMM. Pressured by his militant coalition
partners, however, he might proceed with restrictive
measures in an atterpt to deprive the MMM of polit-
ical momentum.
Such action, while hampering the MMM's ability
to operate, would nevertheless lead to MMM reprisals
of some sort. In any event, it would only postpone
the day when the coalition will be forced to make
some accommodation with Berenger. (CONFIDENTIAL)
17 Dec 71
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NOTES
JAPAN: Textile sales to the US are still in-
creasing at a sharp pace despite the agreement of
October governing shipments of synthetic and woolen
textiles. Last month the value of synthetic yarns,
fibers, and fabrics jumped 53 percent over the level
of November 1970, while clothing exports increased
by about 23 percent. Part of the increase reflects
higher dollar prices stemming from yen appreciation,
but Japanese suppliers apparently have boosted ship-
ments sharply while the final details of Tokyo's
agreement with the US are being worked out. Although
some further gains are likely to be made, the growth
in textile sales will no doubt slow sharply in the
coming months as Tokyo prepares to enforce the tex-
tile agreement. (CONFIDENTIAL)
CANADA: Despite the new US economic policy,
Canadian exports to the US in November--$1.1 bil-
lion--set an all-time monthly high. Automotive
products, oil, gas, newsprint, lumber, and aluminum
accounted for much of the increase. The last two
items are subject to the US surcharge. Total Ca-
nadian exports to the US for the period January
through November were about $11 billion, while im-
ports amounted to almost $10 billion. For the same
period of 1970, Canada's trade surplus with the US
was $830 million. Canada's global exports in 1971
thus far have exceeded imports by about $2 billion
compared with $2.5 billion last year. (CONFIDENTIAL
NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
ROMANIA-EGYPT: Bucharest has agreed to pro-
vide Egypt with $100 million in credit, according to
a Cairo broadcast. The announcement, which also
mentioned a $30-million trade agreement, did not
specify projects to be undertaken. Romania previ-
ously had extended $52 million in credit, of which
$28 million remains to be used. Bucharest, the only
East European caprtal recognizing Israel, has been
trying to improve its relations with the Arab coun-
tries and recently extended a $35-million credit to
Iraq. (CONFIDENTIAL)
17 Dec 7) Central Intelligence Bulletin
7
'terRET
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