CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/05/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02901107
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: May 10, 1953

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10 May 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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TLVIEVvER:
Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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4.
SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
Ambassador Bohlen reports no evidence of change in Soviet
policy toward Germany (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
omment on withdrawal of Viet Minh troops from Laos (page 3).
France will not oppose appeal to UN on Laos if brought by
SOUTH ASIA
India approves of latest Chinese offer on Korea (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Acting Iranian minister of court reveals plans for new govern-
ment (page 6).
7. Ambassador Caffery comments on Anglo-Egyptian impasse
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Comment on moves to speed EDC passage in German Bundesrat
(page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
I. Ambassador Bohlen reports no evidence of change in Soviet policy
toward Germany:
Ambassador Bohlen reports that articles
published by East German Communist
leaders Grotewohl and Ulbricht in the
Moscow press on the anniversary of
German surrender do not indicate a change in Soviet policy toward
Germany.
He believes that the articles, which are
similar to those written during Stalin's lifetime and set forth a
socialized East Germany as a model for a unified Germany, may
be an attempt by the East German leaders to show that rumors
of a policy change are without foundation.
Comment: The articles are similar to
other recent pronouncements of Ulbricht and follow the familiar
pattern of East German propaganda extolling the socialization of
East Germany.
Recent rumors of a Soviet policy change
toward Germany appear in some cases to be plants designed for
French consumption or to be mere speculation.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on withdrawal of Viet Minh troops from Laos:
Numerous reports from official and other
sources describe a large-scale withdrawal of Viet Minh forces
from Laos. French troops have completely lost what limited con-
tact they had with the enemy, thus further clouding the confused
picture of Viet Minh unit locations and intentions.
The firmest indications that the major
offensive in Laos is drawing to a close are the withdrawal of the
bulk of two divisions toward Tonkin and the easing of pressure
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on Luang Prabang. The reported retreat may have been brought
about by a combination of factors, including the imminent onset
of heavy rains, shortages of supplies, troop fatigue, and French
reinforcements.
The Viet Minh probably will not abandon
Laos completely. A sizable force of up to one division was last
reported in the Xieng Khouang area, and elements may be probing
southward to establish a bridgehead on the Mekong River. The
consolidation of territorial gains and the pinning down of isolated
French garrisons would be logical aims for the rainy season and
would be possible with comparatively few troops.
3, France will not oppose appeal to UN on Laos if brought by Thailand:
French Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs
Maurice Schumann has informed Ambassador
Dillon that France "would certainly not
oppose" Thai sponsorship of the Laotian
case before the UN. Schumann believes that an appeal by a fully
independent Asian country would not directly expose French Union
policies to attack as would an appeal by France.
Comment: Schumann's statement probably
does not yet represent an agreed government position, since Pres-
ident Auriol and Premier Mayer have sided with Foreign Minister
Bidault against a French initiative in the UN. Bidault has also
opposed any UN discussion of the issue on the ground that this
might provide a sounding board for anti-colonial charges against
France.
A UN appeal by Thailand, rather than
France, over aggression against a member of the French Union
would further lower France's prestige in the three Associated
States.
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3.
SOUTH ASIA
5. India approves of latest Chinese offer on Korea:
According to the Indian foreign secretary,
the Chinese Communist Government has
kept India informed of the progress of
negotiations at Panmunjom, and the govern-
ment believes that the latest Chinese proposals are based on a
genuine desire to end Korean hostilities. Noting the similarity
between the Chinese offer and the 3 December Indian resolution
adopted by the UN General Assembly, New Delhi considers that
the stage has been reached where settlement is possible.
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The Indian Government also believes that
an armistice in Korea might lead to decreased tension in Southeast
Asia.
Comment: India has apparently restored
relations with Communist China to the status existing prior to the
Communist denunciation of the Indian resolution last November.
India's judgment probably is blurred by its strong desire to play
the role of peacemaker.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Acting Iranian minister of court reveals plans for new government:
Acting Minister of Court Amini told an
American Embassy officer on 6 May that
Iran's economic crisis must be solved, and
that if this is to be done, he and his sup-
porters must control the security forces. His brother, General
Mahmud Amini, is already in charge of the gendarmerie and
their friend, General Modaber, heads the police. The three
are maneuvering to replace Army Chief of Staff Riahi who takes
his orders from Mossadeq.
Amini stated that the differences between
the shah and Mossadeq must be reconciled in order to isolate the
Tudeh. He emphasized that his program could be carried out
without violence and suggested that Mossadeq might be encouraged
to retire.
Comment:
It is unlikely, however, that Mossadeq would
support any plan Which would undermine his position and which
would concentrate control of the security forces in the hands of
men not personally loyal to him.
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Amini and his associates appear to be suave
and powerful Iranian landlords who may be seeking to take Iran over
completely. It would be difficult, however, for them to outwit
Mossadeq.
7. Ambassador Caffery comments on Anglo-Egyptian impasse:
American Ambassador Caffery in Cairo
believes that the impasse in which the
British now find themselves in Egypt stems
from a mistaken long-lunge Middle East
policy. He states that with the detericTration of the British position
in the Middle East, the Foreign Office in London has been tragically
Incapable of developing a new basis for satisfactory relationship
with peoples of the area.
The result in the case of Egypt, Caffery
says, has been not only hatred but an almost ineradicable suspicion
and didtrust of the British. He adds that while he appreciates the
tremendous difficulties a change in British policy would entail, there
is the possibility of violent upheaval in the area which would affect
the entire Middle East,
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Comment on moves to speed EDC passage in German Bundesrat:
The assurance given by Minister President
Maier of Baden-Wuerttemberg to Chancellor Adenauer that he would
vote for the two EDC contractual laws requiring Bundesrat approval
seems to promise an end of the parliamentary impasse on the Bonn
and Paris treaties. The upper house will consider the treaties at
its 15 May session.
The importance of Maier's attitude is
heightened by the decision of Waldemar Kraft, leader of the refugee
party, not to alter the government of Lower Saxony, a move he had
been considering in order to give the Bonn government a Bundesrat
majority.
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State leaders of Maier's Free Democratic
Party have agreed that two other laws containing the major portion
of the treaties do not require Bundesrat approval. There is still,
however, opposition from the Socialists in the Baden-Wuerttemberg
Government. Maier will discuss the matter with them and possibly
Socialist Chairman 011enhauer on 11 May.
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