CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/04/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02899763
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: April 30, 1953

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SECU INFORMATION
30 April 1953
Copy No. 60
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
te#British and Italian Foreign Offices analyze Pravda article (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. New Soviet air defense region near Astrakhan (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1,30."*Cambodian uprising against French reportedly hinges on King's
decision (page 5).
lir Laotian leaders do not fear "Free Laos" Government (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iran asks Japan not to block oil purchases (page 6).
le Britain protests Egyptian attacks on army vehicles in the Suez zone
(page 6).
7. Israeli terrorists may be trying to precipitate war with Arabs
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Italian Political Adviser foresees all Trieste under Italian
jurisdiction (page 8).
9. Jet training by East German pilots may have begun (page 8).
WJ French fear Austrian views on treaty may undercut West (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. British and Italian Foreign Offices analyze Pravda article:
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The British Foreign Office assesses the
Pravda article on Eisenhower's speech as
being primarily designed to continue propa-
ganda warfare, while at the same time
"lowering the international temperature."
It believes that the Soviet Union has kept
the door open, but is in no hurry for genuine
negotiations on substantive matters. The
Foreign Office sees no indication whatsoever that Moscow wishes talks
on Germany, but considers its attitude on Austria less clear.
The Italian Foreign Ministry also feels that
the USSR does not desire an over-all negotiated settlement but may be
willing to pay some price for a relaxation of international tension and a
slackening of the Western defense build-up. In the Foreign Ministry's
opinion, the effects of each concession, such as the exchange of Korean
prisoners of war, will be carefully appraised by the Kremlin to estimate
how much more must be given to achieve its purpose.
SOVIET UNION
2. New Soviet air defense region near Astrakhan:
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There are indications that a new air defense
region has been established in the area between
Stalingrad and Astrakhan, on the northwest
coast of the Caspian Sea. A new regional
control became active on 1 October 1952
(see map, p. 4).
Comment: This brings to 15 the total number
of air defense regions in the European USSR. The new region provides
protection in greater depth on the Soviet Union's southern flank.
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.C,L.IN.E. 1
AIR DEFENSE REGIONS
29 APRIL 1953
STATUTE MILES
2C1 500
KILOMETERS
30429
SECURITY INFORMATION
WESTERN U.S.S.R.
BARENTS
SEA
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
3, Cambodian uprising against French reportedly hinges on King's decision:
There is immediate danger that Cambodian 3.3(h)(2)
loyal and dissident forces will join in armed
revolt against the French if the King orders
it, according to General de Langlade, the local
French commander. De Langlade states that
the King's recent public criticism of the French
has made him a national hero, and that his sup-
porters have been asked to rise if the King's
demands for greater autonomy are not met before 7 May. De Langlade
believes that the immediate return of the King, who is now in Tokyo, plus
the granting of some concessions is imperative.
Meanwhile, the King has informed French
Ambassador Dejean in Tokyo that he does not want to return to his country
"empty-handed" and may remain indefinitely in Tokyo. Dejean and Japa-
nese sources; however, believe that the King is not fostering open rebellion.
Comment: The King is apparently seizing on
France's present difficulties h-Trir-os to press his demands. He bitterly
resents the failure of the French to make concessions in appreciation of
his past cooperation.
While it is probably true that the King is not
yet actively fostering rebellion, mounting Cambodian resentment may
get beyond his control.
4. Laotian leaders do not fear "Free Laos" Government:
The vast majority of the Laotian people are
indifferent to the im lic
Minh invasion,
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SECUWITY INFORMATION
Their leaders believe they can make peac3.3(h)(2)
with a "Free Laos" puppet government under Viet Minh control.
Comment: Most of the leaders of the present
French-sponsored Laotian Government were at one time members of an
anti-French rebel government, and could probably adjust to such a role
again. The recent frustration by the French of Laotian efforts to bring
their case to the United Nations is likely to encourage accommodation to
the Viet Minh; particularly if the French defense of the country proves
Ineffectual.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iran asks Japan not to block oil purchases:
Iran hopes
to buy oil,
was necessary to offset British pressure on ioiw
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
e companies
this approach
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Comment: London has asked the Japanese
Government to discourage the private purchase of Iranian oil, and the
Anglo-Iranian Oil Company will attempt to attach the cargo of refined
products now en route to Japan.
Because of the importance of its trade with
the sterling area, the Japanese Government may prevent future imports
of Iranian oil, probably by eliminating Iran from the list of countries
eligible for dollar exchange imports.
6. Britain protests Egyptian attacks on army vehicles in the Suez zone:
British Ambassador Stevenson in Cairo has 3.3(h)(2)
complained to General Nagib about the "almost
daily" attacks by Egyptian civilians on British
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military vehicles in the Suez Canal zone. A British noncommissioned -
officer was reportedly killed and another wounded as the Anglo-Egyptian
talks were opening on 27 April.
Nagib denied that Egyptian authorities have
any connection with these incidents. Foreign Minister Fawzi indicated
to Ambassador Caffery that opponents of the Nagib regime are probably
responsible.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: These incidents may jeopardize
the success of the Anglo-Egyptian defense talks, which, according to
both British and Egyptian officials, opened in a friendly atmosphere.
Censorship has suppressed reports of more
than 50 attacks involving the theft of British vehicles and small arms
which have occurred since January, 20 of which took place in April.
7. Israeli terrorists may be trying to preqpitate war with Arabs:
American Consul General Tyler reports that 3.3(h)(2)
an Israeli investigation of the fighting in
Jerusalem on 22 April indicates that an
Israeli terrorist gang may be endeavoring
to precipitate war between the two countries. Tyler comments that
this gang may have been responsible for hitherto unexplained murders
blamed on Arabs.
Comment: Young Israeli terrorists are the
successors to the underground 51-Ta.nizations which helped create the
country. These elements have been pressing for expansion of Israel
and may have been encouraged to carry on their activities by the govern-
ment's readiness to blame the Arabs for recent border incidents.
Tyler considers the present situation "the
most grimly serious threat to peace since the armistice was signed"
In 1949.
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. Italian Political Adviser foresees all Trieste under Italian jurisdiction:
� The Italian Political Adviser in Trieste con-3.3(h)(2)
siders that sentiment there has increased
greatly of late in favor of actual formation
of a Free Territory of Trieste as provided
by the Italian Peace Treaty of 1947. Such a move, he told American
and British officials in Trieste, would get the Yugoslays out of Zone B,
and in view of the "trend of international events" would result in the
return to Italy in the "not distant future" of the entire territory.
Comment: The Italian Political Adviser's
suggestion is completely urTiTaltsire since the Yugoslays now hold Zone
B and have shown no intention of withdrawing.
9. Jet training by East German pilots may have begun:
3.3(h)(
Comment: Between 350 and 400 East Germans
reportedly completed basic flight training in February and were expected
soon to start training in jets.
Twenty-five MIG45 fusilages were observed
2)
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at Cottbus airfield 3 3(h 2)
A total of 77 crated aircraft, tIamatority believed to be MIG45's, have
reportedly arrived at this field 3.3(h)(2)
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There are indications that the Soviet air base
at Finsterwalde, about 35 miles west of Cottbus in the southeastern part
of the Soviet zone, will be used for jet training. The base at Cottbus is
capable of accommodating jet aircraft� and the facilities at nearby Bautzen-
Litten are being expanded.
10. French fear Austrian views on treaty may undercut West
The French Foreign Ministry has informed 3.3(h)(2)
the American Embassy in Paris that it still
considers it inadvisable to call a four-power
meeting on the Austrian treaty without first
notifying Moscow of the West's willingness to withdraw the abbreviated
treaty draft.
The Foreign Ministry furthermore fears that
should Western insistence on revision of the long treaty draft delay its
conclusion, the Austrians might place the West in a difficult position
by advising the Russians that they are prepared to accept the long draft
without revision.
The French consider that ultimately the West
will probably have to accept Article 35 of the long treaty which provides
for considerable economic advantages to the USSR.
Comment While it seems unlikely that the
Austrians would deliberately attempt to embarrass the West in an effort
to obtain a treaty, Western differences over possible terms for a settle-
ment are probably already well known to the Russians and would be ex-
ploited by them if they were prepared to terminate the Austrian occupa-
tion.
Although the Austrian Government is ready
to accept the long treaty, it has publicly maintained that the question of
its acceptability is a question for the Austrian Parliament to decide.
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