CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/04/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02893551
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: April 17, 1953

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
ti DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CH.',.NGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
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AUTH: 4,
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY ORMATION
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ECURITY INFORMA I ION
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SUMMARY
NZ . Molotov agrees to clarify position of Italian prisoners (page 3).
GENERAL
SOVIET UNION
Oviet ministerial reorganization causing confusion (page 3).
Comment on Pravda attack against dictatorial control of Communist
Party (page 4).
FAR EAST
Yoshida seen likely, to remain as Japan's prime minister (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Declaration of autonomous state threatened in East Java (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Comment on current Iranian situation (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Czechoslovakia invites members of Soviet bloc to national steel
conference (page 6).
* * * *
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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GENERAL
1. Molotov agrees to clarify position of Italian prisoners:
Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov has
assured the Italian Ambassador that
the recent amnesty in the USSR also
applied to foreigners and that he would
take steps to clarify the position of Italian prisoners sentenced
as war criminals. The overture was in response to the Ambas-
sador's inquiry during a recent courtesy call.
Comment: The USSR has repeatedly
asserted that it held only war criminals, not prisoners of war.
Molotov's statement may foreshadow a token release of German,
French, Spanish and Japanese war criminals without compromising
the previous Soviet position.
Although this is the first
official notice that the amnesty decree applies to foreigners, a
British subject already has been released under the decree.
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet ministerial reorganization causing confusion:
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TOP S ET
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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Comment: The confusion among lower-level
administrators
Is a logical result of the major governmental changes which have taken
place since Stalin's death.
there may be fur-
ther ministerial reorganizations in the Soviet Government requiring
constitutional amendments beyond those ratified by the Supreme Soviet
on 15 March.
The existing state of confusion within the
Soviet Government may thus be prolonged for a considerable period.
Such a state of flux might preclude the Kremlin's embarking on an
adventurous foreign policy and would provide strong motivation for
a continuation of the current "peace offensive."
3. Comment on Pravda attack against dictatorial control of Communist
Party:
Pravda's denunciation on 16 April of the
principle of "one person decisions" in the leadership of the Com-
munist Party not only repudiates the basic characteristic of Stalin's
regime but also in effect warns against any resumption of dictatorial
control.
This is further evidence that no one indi-
vidual has yet achieved the power necessary for Soviet dictatorship
and suggests that some members of the hierarchy are making a con-
certed effort to forestall such a development.
FAR EAST
4. Yoshida seen likely to remain as Japan's prime minister:
The Far East Command believes that Prime
Minister Yoshida will be the most likely
candidate to head the Japanese Government
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3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
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SECURITY INFORMWITON
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following the 19 April Lower House elections. The expected plurality
of the Yoshida Liberal Party in the Lower House will give him the
largest vote on the first ballot for prime minister, but not a majority.
He appears almost certain to win against either a Progressive-Hatoyama
or a Socialist candidate on the conclusive second ballot, which is limited
to the two candidates receiving the most votes on the first.
Under these conditions the next government
would lack the support of a Diet majority and would probably be =-
stable and of short tenure.
Comment 3.3(h)(2)
Yoshida believes that if he can win 200 seats, he can gain sufficient
additional conservative support for a Diet majority, but a single-party
government seems unlikely. The Yoshida forces have shown unexpected
vigor in the campaign.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Declaration of autonomous state threatened in East Java:
the
Army Command in East Java is expected
in the next few days to announce its inde-
pendence of the government because of the
government's failure to dismiss all army leaders involved in the anti-
Parliament demonstrations of last October. The proposed action
allegedly will be supported by the National Party, the Communist
Party, and a covert Moslem dissident group.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment The American Embassy reports
that the Indonesian Prime Minister conferred with the East Java com-
mander on 15 April and that the latter now has a "sound understanding"
of government policy. The Embassy, however, sees no immediate
solution of the basic army problems of insubordination and bitter
political factionalism.
5
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CURITY INFORMATION
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Comment on current Iranian situation:
The failure of the Iranian Parliament to
meet on 16 April again underscores Prime Minister Mossadeq's
current political weakness. The parliamentary deadlock will
presumably continue until enough pro-Mossadeq deputies return
to Tehran to offset the opposition's boycott.
Despite this evident weakness, Mossadeq's
extensive opposition is disunited and is said to have temporarily
abandoned plans for a coup because the Shah has refused active
support. The prime minister, on the other hand, controls the Army
Chief of Staff, has a large popular following, which the Tudeh has
temporarily joined, and commands the support of a compact bloc of
parliamentary votes.
Neither the prime minister nor his opposi-
tion appears at present strong enough to win decisive control of the
government. Until the pailiamentary impasse is resolved, the
possibility of serious disorders remains.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. S Czechoslovakia invites members of Soviet bloc to national steel
conference:
The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs
forwarded invitations on 1 April to the
Soviet Union and its European Satellites
to send delegates to a national conference
of steel producers called by the new Czech
tsiteoUUivretatlurgical Industry and Ore Mines. The meetings,
scheduled for 16-18 April, was convoked to discuss new methods of
steel production in order to increase Czech output in the last year of
the present Five Year Plan,
6
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SECURITY INFORIvi-
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Comment The iron and steel industry,
which is the key to the Czech Five Year Plan, has been singled out
each year for its failure to fulfill production quotas. President
Zapotocky has repeatedly criticized the lagging iron and steel pro-
duction, and within four days of his election on 21 March replaced
the Minister of the Metallurgical Industry and Ore Mines with a former
deputy chairman of the State Planning Office. The rapidity with which
the new Minister acted in calling this conference indicates the serious-
ness with which Czech steel production failures are viewed.
7
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