CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/04/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02893544
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: April 9, 1953

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9 April 1953
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLE
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
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CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S /4061
NEXT REVIEW DATF�
DATF1_3/41 AU 11.1. hr 70-2
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
2.
3.
4.
(nape RI
SOVIET UNION
Ignatiev affair receiving careful treatment in Soviet Dress
Soviet jet light bombers possibly ferried to Kamchatka (page 5).
FAR EAST
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Ile# North Korean airfield reconstruction possibly linked with cease-fire
(page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French general sees planned Vietnam Army build-up as inadequate
(page 6).
SOUTH ASIA
7. Pakistani Foreign Minister reportedly may have to resign (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
VEgyptian sentiment my force Nagib to adopt anti-Western campaign
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Inadequate economic planning imperils French defense build-up
(page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Comment on Guatemala's charges of foreign intervention (page 8).
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GENERAL
SOVIET UNION
2. Ignatiev affair receiving careful treatment in Soviet press:
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The American Embassy in Moscow considers3.3(h)(2)
the Central Committee plenum's release of
S. D. Ignatiev from the party Secretariat an
indication that the doctors' affair was discussed
by a relatively large group of high party officials. The Embassy feels
that Ignatiev was probably also deprived of membership on the Central
Committee, although this has not yet been announced.
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The Embassy points out that the unusual pro-
cedure of limiting coverage of the decision to Pravda while other papers
merely reprinted its editorial on the dismissal may indicate that the
Ignatiev issue is so delicate or obscure that other editors have been
ordered to reprint the Pravda interpretation rather than paraphrase it.
Comment: Evidence is still lacking as to
whether Ignatiev's dismissal was necessitated by a decision to eliminate
the doctors' conspiracy as inconsistent with the new regime's "liberal
and peaceful" character or was the result of an internal power struggle.
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4. Soviet jet light bombers possibly ferried to Kamchatka
Comment: These planes were probably jet
light bombers, since the distance of the flight is barely within the known
extended ranges of MIG-type aircraft and the prescribed altitude of the
flight was almost 33,000 feet.
From bases in Kamchatka, jet light bombers
could be used against targets in the western Aleutians as well as against
hostile naval operations in the northern Pacific.
The three Tenth Air Army conventional light
bomber regiments stationed on Kamchatka have an authorized strength
of 126 aircraft; in 1952, one of the three fighter regiments in the Petro-
pavlovsk area was re-equipped with MIG-15's.
FAR EAST
5. North Korean airfield reconstruction possibly linked with cease-fire:
Far East Air Force reports that renewed
Communist activity in reconstructing air-
fields in North Korea, while possibly de-
signed to expand the enemy's intercept
capabilities, will allow the transfer of a
arge num er o comsat aircraft into Korea just prior to a cease-fire.
This would give the North Koreans an air force on their own soil
greatly outclassing that of South Korea, and would make the detection
of a future build-up of Communist air strength nearly impossible.
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Comment: The portion of the draft armistice
already agreed on provides that combat aircraft in Korea cannot be rein-
forced following the end of hostilities, but worn out or damaged aircraft
can be replaced with equipment of the same type.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. French general sees planned Vietnam Army build-up as inadequate:
General Alessandri, French military adviser
to Bao Dai, believes that current plans for
enlarging the Vietnamese Army are "completely
inadequate" and will result in only a minor in-
crease in combined French-Vietnamese strength. Apparently basing this
view on an anticipated rapid withdrawal of French forces, he estimates
the net increase in French-Vietnamese strength over a two-year period
at only about 6,000.
The American Embassy in Saigon states it is
unable to co4iment on the accuracy of Alessandri's figures until he pro-
vides further evidence, as he has promised.
Comment: Current French-Vietnamese plans
call for an increase in the Vietnamese Army in order to enable troops
now used only for static defense to engage in offensive operations against
the Viet Minh. These plans would be vitiated if French forces are with-
drawn within the next two to three years. Other French authorities, how-
ever, have not indicated that they plan such a disengagement.
SOUTH ASIA
7. Pakistani Foreign Minister reportedly may have to resign:
Pakistani Foreign Minister Zafrullah Khan
told the American Charge in Karachi on 7
April that Prime Minister Nazimuddin was
seeking to oust him from office. Zafrullah
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also stated that Nazimuddin, who was recently forced into suppressing
agitation against Zafrullah Khan and the Ahmatliya religious sect to
which he belongs, is now reacting by encouraging persecution of the
Ahmadiyas.
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Nazimuddin is unlikely to want the resignation
of Zafrullah Khan, one of the key men in his cabinet, chief Pakistani
spokesman on Kashmir, and a pro-Westerner, at a time when the
Kashmir issue is again before the UN Security Council and when Pakistan
is seeking military and economic assistance from the United States.
Furthermore, Nazimuddin's recent drastic actions to eliminate political
opposition would be largely nullified if he acquiesced to opposition demands
for Zafrullah's resignation.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
8. Egyptian sentiment may force Nagib to adopt anti-Western campaign:
Unless Britain offers Egypt acceptable terms 3.3(h)(2)
for the evacuation of the Suez Canal zone with-
in the next 30 days, Egyptian public opinion
may force the Nagib regime to adopt an anti-
Western campaign with paramilitary operations against the British,
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The Revolutionary Command council still
insists that Britain accept the principle of full evacuation before there
is any discussion of a defense pact. The Council does not believe that
it can accept evacuation or a defense pact on terms similar to those
rejected by former governments.
Comment: While Nagib has privately indi-
cated his willingness to compromise, he has consistently demanded
public agreement to evacuation as a prerequisite to any negotiations.
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Members of the regime have intimated that
Nagib might be forced to yield to extreme nationalist demands and resort
to anti-Western action.
Any extensive Egyptian paramilitary operations
would result in British occupation of Cairo and the Delta.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Inadequate economic planning imperils French defense build-up:
American diplomatic and economic representa3.3(h)(2)
tives in Paris agree that no increase in French
military expenditures is likely in 1954. They
warn that the government lacks plans to promote
the growth of the economy, and is apparently resigned to economic stagna-
tion.
Comment: The French have stated that pres-
ent economic trends in France threaten to reduce 1954 defense expenditures
below the 1953 level.
Military equipment appropriations originally
frozen until 31 March have not yet been released, and Premier Mayer
may continue to block these funds rather than take more unpalatable
means of covering the serious budgetary deficit.
LATIN AMERICA
10. Comment on Guatemala's charges of foreign intervention:
Guatemala, charging that its sovereignty is
threatened by an "international conspiracy" involving former high US
officials and the governments of neighboring countries, announced on
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7 April that it had sent to the United Nations a notice of its withdrawal
from the Organization of Central American States. This action provides
Communist and nationalist propagandists in Latin America with effective
material for use in their campaign to undermine US prestige and hemi-
spheric solidarity.
The Guatemalan decision may also stimulate
neighboring Central American governments, which genuinely fear the
spread of Communist activity, to implement their plans for action against
the Communist-influenced Guatemalan Government.
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