CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02893482
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 28, 1953

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SECU INFORMA'TION
28 March 1953
Copy No.bU
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 7p...
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AUTH: �H 70 2
DATE:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
REVIEWER:
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Highlights of Tito-Churchill discussions (page 3).
2. Japan proposes quadripartite consultations to wean China from
Russia (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
Additional Soviet fighter division located in Austria (page 4).
American reconnaissance plane intercepted off Chukotsk
peninsula (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Semiofficial Rangoon newspaper denounces the United States
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Bulgarian payments to Soviet Engineering Directorate suggest
increased military imports (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Preparations for an invasion of Guatemala reported (page 8).
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1. Highlights of Tito-Churchill discussions:
Marshal Tito and Prime Minister Churchill 3.3(h)(2)
agreed during their London talks that Yugo-
slav-Western military planning should proceed
on the assumption that an attack on Yugoslavia,
would be part of a general attack in Europe.
Tito was categoric in stating he had no desire
to join NATO. He made no mention of a bilateral treaty with the
British, and made no specific requ sts for additional military aid.
The Yugoslav leader reacted strongly against
suggestions of a temporary solution to the Trieste issue, and showed
no signs of being willing to give up any substantial part of Zone B to
the Italians. He agreed to leave the Albanian situation undisturbed.
The British consider that the discussions
dispelled Yugoslav suspicions of British policy toward the Balkans,
and expect as a result that Yugoslavia may be more cooperative in
future military talks.
1 Japan proposes quadripartite consultations to wean China from Russia:
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The French Embassy in London has informec.
the British Foreign Office that Japan had
approached France with a proposal for quad-
ripartite consultations on measures to wean
China away from Russia, according to Ambassador Aldrich, The
Ambassador notes that a Japanese proposal for similar talks was
presented to the British Foreign Office on 19 March,
Comment: The Japanese Foreign Minister
approached Ambassador Murphy in early March for tripartite dis-
cussions.
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Japan's leaders believe that Communist
China's ties with the Soviet Union can be weakened by increasing
free world trade relations with China, within the limitations im-
posed by the Korean war. Britain and France are concerned over
Japan's commercial competition in Southeast Asia and the Japanese
probably feel they can count on British and French support for this
approach.
SOVIET UNION
3. Additional Soviet fighter division located in Austria:
Formation of the unit apparently began in
October 1952 when Soviet Air Force personnel were observed on
Deutsch Wagram airfield ten miles northeast of Vienna. Since Feb-
ruary 1953, a small number of MIG-15's have been reported there.
Comment: This is the second fighter di-
vision to be added to the 59th Air Army in Austria and Hungary in
recent months and raises the total to four, two of which are deployed
in Hungary. A fighter division was transferred in January from the
Western USSR to Hungary and is now based near Budapest.
Estimated strength of Soviet and Satellite
jet fighter units deployed throughout East Europe has increased over
the past year by about 580 aircraft to a present estimated total of
about 1700 planes.
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4. American reconnaissance plane intercepted off Chukotsk peninsula:
Two Soviet !G-15's intercepted an Ameri-
can photo reconnaissance plane about 22
miles off the Chukotsk peninsula on 27
March. The MIG's did not open fire.
The pilot states that he did not violate the
restrictions placed on his flight which were to approach no closer
than 20 miles from the Siberian coast.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
Semiofficial Rangoon newspaper denounces the United States:
In a virulent editorial on 26 March,the 3.3(h)(2)
semiofficial New. Times of Burma charged
that the United States was primarily respon-
sible for the "growing strength" of the Chi-
nese Nationalists in Burma and suggested that the government should
seriously consider the offer of the Communist insurgents to aid in the
fight against the Chinese "aggressors." Two references were made to
Burma's "friendly neighbor," Communist China.
The American Embassy comments that this
editorial reflects the views of high government officials who favor a
stronger statement on American involvement than Premier Nu has
permitted. The Embassy also fears that internal pressures may
actually force the government to accept the Communists' offer, should
the current military campaign against the Nationalists prove unsuc-
cessful.
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Comment: Burmese leaders have occasionally
spoken of Americans being with Nationalists, but have not linked
them with the United States Government.
The editorial indicates that the Burmese
Government may soon publicly assert that the United States is involved.
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EASTERN EUROPE
7. Bulgarian payments to Soviet Engineering Directorate suggest increased
military imports:
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during
January payments totalling more than $3,000,000
were made by Bulgaria to the Engineering
rec ora e o e oviet Ministry of Foreign Trade. The payments
were made by the Ministry of National Defense and the Bulgarian State
Enterprise for Import of Metals and Machines on the account for 1952.
Comment: These remittances bring known
Bulgarian payments to the Engineering Directorate, an agency believed
to handle some Soviet exports of military materiel, to a total of
$15,500,000 for the calendar year 19520 The known payments during
1950 and 1951 totalled only $500,000 and $2,000,000 respectively.
The Bulgarian armed forces have for several
years been rated first among the Satellites in terms of combat potential.
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WESTERN EUROPE
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LATIN AMERICA
9. Preparations for an invasion of Guatemala reported:
Army reserves of El Salvador are being
called to active duty for an invasion of
Guatemala from El Salvador by the Sal-
vadoran, Nicaraguan and Honduran armies
The US Military Attache in San Salvador has
visited Salvadoran army barracks but found no indications of prepara-
tions for such action, though rumors and speculation are rife.
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Comment: An invasion of Guatemala within
the next three months is unlikely. The armies of El Salvador, Ni-
caragua, and Honduras, totalling about 8,500 troops, are not now
capable of sustained offensive action and their absence from national
territory would endanger the stability of home governments.
The Guatemalan Government suspects the
other governments of plotting against it, but has kept its best troops
within the capital city, probably for fear of a domestic uprising there.
Such an uprising, or defections within the Guatemalan Army officer
corps are the only events,which would give an invasion from El
Salvador a fair chance of success. The Guatemalan Army of 6,000
appears still loyal to its government.
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