CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/03/27

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02893481
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: March 27, 1953

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27 March 1953
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. r
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TOLTLSAtterfL,
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: 70
DATE)
REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
Comment on announcement of Sino-Soviet trade and credit protocols
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
FAR EAST
3. Two new Chinese Communist air divisions identified (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Burma would prevent charges against US in UN appeal (page 4),
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
3.3(h)(2)
6. Lebanese President promoting Arab-Western rapprocnement tpage 5).
7. Britain's delay endangers Egyptian defense talks (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Unrest in Rumania increases susceptibility to Western propaganda
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
toe Bonn ready with proposals on economic aspects of Saar problem
(page 7).
14, Mayer government's prospects for survival seen worsening (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on announcement of Sino-Soviet trade and credit protocols:
Moscow's announcement on 26 March of the
signing of protocols on Sino-Soviet trade for 1953 and on Soviet credits
to China does not represent a new Soviet loan to China. China and
the USSR have been signing similar protocols every spring since 1950,
when the Sino-Soviet treaty and its supplementary agreements were
concluded.
2.
Peiping is known, however, to be receiving
from the USSR supplementary credits which the 26 March announce-
ment does not mention. The 1950 credit agreement allocated China
$60,000,000 a year for five years, or $180,000,000 through 1952.
Peiping had used at least $248,000,000 by the end of 1952 and must
therefore already have received new loans or advances on the unused
portion of the 1950 credit.
SOVIET UNION
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Comment: This incident appears to fall into
the pattern of previous Soviet reaction to flights by Western aircraft
involved in real or suspected violations of Soviet Orbit boundaries.
FAR EAST
3. Two new Chinese Communist air divisions identified:
two pre -
viously unidentified Chinese Communist
air divisions, the 31st and 34th, both
probably located in South China. These
units appear to be in an early stage of organization, and their pre-
cise location, operational status and type of aircraft are not known.
Comment: This brings to 28 the number of
Chinese Communist air divisions firmly identified. Since Peiping%
air units are apparently numbered consecutively, however, there
may now be 34 of these divisions.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Burma would prevent charges against US in UN appeal:
The Burmese Government, in its appeal to
the UN on the Chinese Nationalist issue,
will make every effort to prevent discussion
of American invnlvPment
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the
Burmese War Office had obtained enough evidence to prove Burma's
case against Taipei.
Comment: A possible deterioration in
American-Burmese relations is indicated, however. The Burmese
did not advise the United States in advance of the date of its appeal and there
have been reliable reports that the Burmese leadership has been crit-
icized by its partisan supporters for being too friendly to the United
States.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
6. Lebanese President promoting Arab-Western rapprochement:
Lebanese President Chamoun is visiting Arab 3.3(h)(2)
capitals to try to convince top leaders of the
necessity of cooperating with the West in regional
defense planning,[
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(Chamoun favors a conference
of foreign ministers to ciscuss Arab and Western defense plans.
He feels that Lebanon's opportunity to be the
intermediary between East and West has been enhanced by rumors of
a new pro-Arab American policy and that the Arabs must abandon their
distrust of the West.
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Comment: Lebanon, a Christian-Moslem state
with skillful leaders like Chamoun and Charles Malik, is in a unique posi-
tion to bring the Arab states, Israel and the West closer together. The
task will be very difficult, however.
7. Britain's delay. endangers Egyptian defense talks:
Britain will probably postpone a decision on 3.3(h)(2)
opening defense talks with Egypt until after it
has assessed General Nagib's reply to President
Eisenhower's letter explaining American interest
In the future of the Suez Canal base. Anglo-Egyptian relations over the
Sudan and Egyptian pulkic statements will also influence the decision.
Britain has withheld shipment of four jet
planes because of Nagib's recent statements demanding evacuation of
the canal zone.
Comment: The Egyptian Foreign Minister on
24 March informed Ambassador-e-affery that each day's delay makes it
more difficult to Control the excited military leaders and to stop their
inflammatory speeches. Caffery emphasizes that further delay in
starting the negotiations or Britain's insistence on presenting its
proposals as a "package" may make it impossible to reach a defense
agreement.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Unrest in Rumania increases susceptibilit to Western propaganda:
The American Legation in Bucharest reports3.3(h)(2)
that the present unsettled situation there has
greatly sharpened the average Rumanian's
interest in and susceptibility to Western,
particularly American, propaganda.
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Recent price increases and rumors of an
Impending currency reform have led to panic buying in Bucharest.
This aggravates the already tense atmosphere there, which was evi-
dencedby the discovery of anti-regime leaflets near the Rumanian
capital last week and the imposition of stricter security measures
following the death of Stalin earlier this month.
Comment: Peasant resistance and general
unrest increased during the last year in Rumania because of the tighter
economic policies of the regime and a very poor harvest due to severe
drought.
Although the dramatic events of the past month
have no doubt contributed to general unrest, the Rumanian regime still
retains effective control.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Bonn ready with proposals on economic aspects of Saar problem:
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According to a top Foreign Ministry official,
West German Chancellor Adenauer and
Economics Minister Erhard have worked out
concrete proposals for negotiations with France
on economic aspects of the Saar problem. The proposals do not touch
on the French-Saar currency union, which the Germans are willing to
accept.
Adenauer will be prepared to discuss these
proposals when he comes to Washington in April.
Comment: Last month French Foreign Minister
Bidault proposed that France and Germany submit sets of economic
principles to guide economic experts in an examination of the Saar prob-
lem. If France now submitted its set of economic principles, technical
discussions -could take place this spring.
E:T
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10. Mayer government's prospects for survival seen worsening:
Premier Mayer's recent difficulty in obtainii2)%
National Assembly approval of a new loan from
the Banque de France has made parliamentary
observers more pessimistic about the govern-
ment's future. His possible defeat on economic issues following the
municipal elections in early May is now freely discussed.
Some consider that Mayer's fall could improve
the prospects for EDC ratification since the old-line Radical Socialists
might make less trouble if the battle were not led by a member of their
party.
Comment: Mayer's impending departure for
Washington was an important element in securing a favorable vote for
the loan; nevertheless he received very slim support and there were
numerous abstentions. Mayer is being widely criticized among his
supporters for blaming France's present economic difficulties on
former Premier Pinay's policies while at the same time endorsing
those policies.
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