CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/08/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02872261
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: August 20, 1953

Approved for Release: 2019/07/10 CO2872261
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20 August 1953
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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3.5(c)
3.5(c)
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SECURITY INFO
3.5(c)
1.
SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Li Mi indicates intention to retain headquarters in Burma (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
IComment on the Iranian situation (page 4).
. French government may depose sultan of Morocco before
21 August (page 4).
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SECURITY INFORMATION--
3.5(c)
1,
SOVIET UNION
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Li Mi indicates intention to retain headquarters in Burma:
The Chinese Nationalist foreign minister
told an officer of the American embassy
at Taipei on 18 August that General Li Mi
wants to retain his Mong Hsat headquarters
In northeast Burma even after evacuation. To the foreign minister's
objections, Li Mi was said to have retorted that the "Americans had
said nothing about the evacuation of Mong Hsat."
The embassy observes that any evacuation
that leaves Nationalist headquarters intact would be an empty gesture
by the Chinese government.
Comment: This report supports many
other indications that Taipei is insincere in its stated policy of
cooperation in the evacuation effort.
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on the Iranian situation:
The unexpectedly strong upsurge of
popular and military reaction to Prime Minister Mossadeq's
government has enabled the shah's supporters to take over
control of Tehran and apparently of important parts of the
country, including strategic Azerbaijan. Consolidation of power
in Tehran, stronghold of Tudeh and Mossadeq supporters, makes
it unlikely that the royalists will be seriously threatened by any
opposition originating in the provinces. Indicative of the trend
is the pledge of loyalty to the shah made by a leader of such an
important tribal group as the Bakhtiari.
The Tudeh has been relatively inactive
during the past day; however, it probably is the principal organ-
ized threat to Zahedi's government. With a royalist government
in control, the Tudeh will undoubtedly be suppressed but will
nevertheless remain the best organized, and potentially most
troublesome opposition.
The success of a new government will
depend to a great extent on its ability to improve rapidly Iran's
financial and economic position. A conservative government
probably could not reverse the oil nationalization because of
popular sentiment. Likewise, a new government probably could
not immediately attempt to reach a settlement with the British
on terms more favorable than Mossadeq has offered.
4. French government may depose sultan of Morocco before 21 August:
High French Foreign Ministry officials
have stated that apparently the only way
to restore stability in Morocco is to
depose the sultan before the 21 August
religious festival.,
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The Foreign Ministry officials informed
the American embassy that the situation was considered "out of
hand." Both Resident General Guillaume and a Foreign Ministry
investigator who returned to Paris on 17 August believe that El
Glaoui's movement is turning out to be greater than expected and
fear the Berbers in the French Union forces may revolt.
Comment: This is the first indication
from Paris that the Foreign Ministry, which has heretofore opposed
ousting the sultan, may now support the Residency General on this
issue.
Contrary to General Guillaume's report,
El Glaoui has almost no Berber support and depends largely on
local French backing. Ouster of the sultan would probably pro-
voke additional widespread violence.
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