CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1953/07/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02872227
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: July 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 2, 1953

. INFORMATION
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US OFFICIALS ONLY
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
2 July 1953
3.5(c)
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Turkish ambassador urges request for release of nationals held in
Soviet Union (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Possible late Tuly attacks against Tonkin delta by Viet Minh
reported (page 3),
611 Comment on situation in Cambodia (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on Mossadeq victory in the Iranian Majlis (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Mass Soviet jet bomber movement reported eastward from Germany
(page 5).
6. Dutch lower house may postpone EDC vote until fall (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Turkish ambassador urges request for release of nationals held in
Soviet Union:
On 25 June Turkish ambassador Hozar in 3.3(h)(2)
Moscow recommended to Ankara that he be
authorized to approach Foreign Minister
Molotov requesting exit visas for the Turkish
citizens who were removed for security rea-
sons from the Soviet Black Sea coast to Siberia in 1949 and 1952.
He recommended that the approach be timed
to coincide with the Turkish answer to the Soviet note of 30 May. Hozar
feels that the chances of obtaining results from such a maneuver are
better now than previously and that it would "provide at the same time
the opportunity for a real test of the good intentions of the Soviets."
According to Hozar, the Turks are in a camp of approximately 70,000,
including Greeks and Iranians.
Comment: Release of a few Turkish, Greek,
and Iranian nationals would be in line with Moscow's recent friendly
gestures. The return of a large number of those removed from the
Black Sea area for security purposes is not anticipated.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Possible late July attacks against Tonkin delta by Viet Minh reported:
The Viet Minh plans to attack and occupy in 3.3(h)(2)
late July or August the towns of Son Tay and
Nam Dinh, located in the northwestern and
southern parts of the Tonkin delta, while
French troops are dispersed to protect the rice harvest,
Replicas of these towns have been constructed
in Viet Minh territory and enemy troops are training with live ammuni-
tion. Although the French are believed to be aware of the threat, they
appear to be taking no defensive measures.
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Comment: By withdrawing the bulk of its
invading forces from Laos, the Viet Minh has rebuilt its offensive
potential in Tonkin and, with some further redeployment and aided
by troops already infiltrated into the delta, would be capable of mount-
ing an attack by several divisions in late July.
3. Comment on situation in Cambodia:
A durable political settlement of the Cambodian
dispute with France appears remote and an armed clash is possible at
any time. A precarious modus vivendi may be reached, however, which
would postpone a breakdown in relations. While the Cambodian people
apparently are calm, the king can count on overwhelming popular support
for whatever course he takes.
During the last few days, the French have
reinforced their garrison at Phnom Penh, the capital, with two bat-
talions of North African troops, which have an unsavory reputation in
Cambodia. The Cambodian government countered by assigning its
troops to guard public buildings in the capital. Cambodian forces
would be no match for the French and general hostilities would prob-
ably be similar to the fighting in Vietnam: -general insecurity otittteclO
of French-held urban centers.
The king's demands allow little room for
negotiation. He wants France to grant Cambodia a status in the French
Union comparable to that of a member of the British Commonwealth.
While the French might shortly offer more concessions, they are not
likely to give such complete independence, which would include the
right to withdraw from the Union. The French also fear that Vietnam
and Laos would immediately demand similar status.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on Mossadeq victory in the Iranian Majlis:
The 1 July election of a Mossadeq supporter,
Abdollah Moazzami, as president of the Majlis was accomplished by
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the National Front with the support of the independents. These
deputies apparently responded to the prime minister's threat on
26 June to dismiss the Majlis if his government did not receive
majority support.
Although Mossadeq now controls this
important parliamentary post, the opposition can still prevent
a quorum, and there is no indication that Majlis members will
be amenable to his will in the future.
Mullah Kashani, former president of the
Majlis, who on 30 June issued a strong denunciation of Mossadeq's
dictatorial tactics, can be expected temporarily to limit his politi-
cal activities. Kashani's own ambitions will induce him, however,
to continue working against the prime minister.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Mass Soviet jet bomber movement reported eastward from Germany:
Comment: Prior to 29 June there were in
East Germany six tactical bober regiments with an estimated strength
of 122 jet light bombers and one long-range reconnaissance regiment
also equipped with IL-28's. Thus far there is no known corresponding
movement of supporting facilities eastward.
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6. Dutch lower house may postpone EDC vote until fall:
nterpreting the postponement of the Bermuit3.3(h)(2)
alks as a lessening of the need for urgent
ction on the EDC, the Dutch Second Chamber
s considering delaying a vote on the treaty
until e tall parliamentary session, according to a leading Labor Party
deputy. The American ambassador in The Hague believes that the govern-
ment itself is having second thoughts about urging ratification during the
present session.
Comment: The Netherlands is the only EDC
nation where favorable parliamentary action on the treaty had been ex-
pected this summer, or in time to bolster Chancellor Adenauer's efforts
to keep alive popular belief in European integration during the crucial
West German election campaign.
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