CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/18
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02870939
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Document Page Count:
9
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
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Case Number:
Publication Date:
April 18, 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689541].pdf | 249.72 KB |
Body:
r
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.11,..Ed
18 April 1954
Lopy NO.
76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. _�
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: P--.
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: ?,402/77.5? REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
-i"3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
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1 L.) L..1.
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Greek ambassador incensed by Yugoslav statement on Tito's Ankara
talks (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Malenkov protege conspicuously absent from Moscow theater per-
formance (page 3).
FAR EAST
3.
4. Rhee angered by South Korea's exclusion from "united action"
program (page 5).
5. Vehicle factory in Communist China to have annual capacity of 30,000
units (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Tonkin commander critical of French strategy (page 6).
7. French report Chinese Communist aid to Viet Minh at unprecedented
level (page 6).
8. Viet Minh may use Soviet rocket launcher at Dien Bien Phu (page 7).
9.
10.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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UK 1
GENERAL
1. Greek ambassador incensed by Yugoslav statement on Tito's Ankara talks:
The American embassy in Ankara reports that
the Greek ambassador has expressed "surprise
and chagrin" over the results of Tito's talks
with the Turks, as announced by Yugoslav
foreign minister Popovic. The ambassador was particularly incensed
by the Yugoslav statement on the development of the Balkan treaty of
friendship and cooperation into a firm military alliance. He feels
that his government has been placed in the embarrassing position of
being faced with Balkan pact understandings without prior consultation.
The Ambassador was not mollified by Turkish
assurances that no commitments were reached during the conversations '
and that future Balkan pact developments would be subject to discussion
with his government.
Comment: The Greeks, always sensitive
to any reflections on their status in the Balkan pact, will protest any
implication that they do not have an equal voice in tripartite planning.
All three Balkan pact powers are favorably disposed toward the idea
of a military alliance. Greece and Turkey, however, as members of
NATO, have been advised not to make commitments which would risk
involving NATO powers in conflicts the system is not designed to cover.
Popovic may have been exaggerating the
extent of progress toward firm commitments actually obtained in the
Yugoslav-Turkish talks in an attempt to emphasize Yugoslav good
faith toward the West.
SOVIET UNION
2. Malenkov protege conspicuously absent from Moscow theaterperformance:
Ambassador Bohlen notes that Maxim Z.
Saburov was the only full member of the
all-union party presidium absent from a
Moscow performance of the Comedie
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Francaise. He states that Saburov's failure to appear will probably give
rise to rumors in Moscow, especially in view of the precedent of Beria's
absence and Khrushchev's recently publicized criticism of Saburov's
state planning committee. Bohlen cautions, however, that Saburov's
absence is insufficient evidence from which to draw any conclusions.
Comment: Khrushchev severely criticized
the state planning committee, which is headed by Saburov, but did not
attack Saburov by name. A pointed attack on two ministers made in the
same speech does not appear to have led to their dismissal.
Saburov is one of the most prominent of the
"technicians" who have accompanied Malenkov in his rise to power. His
removal from the presidium might well indicate a critical 'weakness in
Malenkov's position. To the extent that the move could be traced to
Khrushchev's influence, it would suggest that a major struggle for power
has been developing.
FAR EAST
3.
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4. Rhee angered by South Korea's exclusion from "united action" program:
President Rhee has expressed discouragement
and anger over the failure of the United States
to invite South Korea and Formosa to join
the proposed "Southeast Asian anti-Communist
pact."
South Korea's
public information chief believes the unfavorable attitude of the Philip-
pines and Thailand toward the South Korean-sponsored anti-Communist
conference was a direct result of American pressure.
Comment: South Korea's exclusion from the
Asian collective defense proposal and the lack of enthusiasm shown
toward Rhee's proposed conference may have a sobering effect on Rhee
and his lieutenants, who have overestimated South Korea's potential
for leadership in Asia. Rhee's antagonism toward Japan and most of
the Western European nations would hinder the effectiveness of an
Asian alliance in which South Korea participated.
5. Vehicle factory in Communist China to have annual capacity of 30�000
units:
The authoritative Peiping People's Daily stated
on 19 March that a motor vehicle manufacturing
works being built under the Soviet aid program--
due to be completed in 1959--will have an annual
capacity of 30,000 vehicles.
Comment: There are now probably fewer
than 100,000 vehicles, mostly trucks, in Communist China� The reported
capacity of the new works exceeds current annual imports, almost en-
tirely from other Orbit countries by a lA rffP MA rfrin
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. Tonkin commander critical of French strategy:
7.
The American consul at Hanoi reported on
16 April that General Cogny had told him that
General Navarre and his command have made
no effort to exploit strategic factors in de-
fending Dien Bien Phu. He cited as an example the failure to transfer
six battalions in Annam to Tonkin for lightning raids on Viet Minh supply
bases whose defenses have been stripped. Cogny pointed out that such
attacks could relieve the pressure on Dien Bien Phu.
Cogny said the battle of Dien Bien Phu was
essentially being fought by his air force. He stated that when the French
high command beseeches the United States for more planes and receives
them, it finds itself short of pilots and hampered by an inadequate organ-
ization. Proper air support could radically change the picture at Dien
Bien Phu,
The French officer feels the high command
should never have accepted battle in the remote Thai country. He felt
that the seven-year battle for the Tonkin delta might very well be lost
at Dien Bien Phu.
Chinese Communist aid to Viet Minh at unprecedented
level:
US Army Attach�nformation termed "sure" by French intelli-
Saigon gence indicates that Chinese Communist aid
16 Apr 54 to the Viet Minh is at an unprecedentedlyIhigh
SECRET level. A minimum of about 2,850 tons of
Al C 447 supplies is arriving monthly over routes in
easte n Tonkin, while a new western route is carrying a minimum of
about 600 tons and may soon handle 900 tons monthly.
The Viet Minh now has roughly 1,200 trucks.
The Chinese furnished 130 toward the end of March, and planned to -
Supply 115 in April and 60 in May. The French state that the Viet Minh
has always used an undetermined number of Chinese drivers for their
trucks, but are not certain whether these drivers have been used only
near the frontier.
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8, Viet Minh may use Soviet rocket launcher at Dien Bien Phu:
Viet Minh forces at Dien Bien Phu are
awaiting new weapons from Communist China.
The weapons are referred to by a cover name but
they may be Russian M-13 rocket launchers.
Comment: The M-13 (132mm) rocket
launcher, if employed at Dien Bien Phu, would probably be used in
area fire in an attempt to demoralize the defenders and soften up
French positions prior to an assault. The launcher's accuracy, however,
is poor, and the enemy's reported transport difficulties would militate
against extensive use of these weapons.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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