CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02870938
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 17, 1954

_
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
�
17 April 1954
Copy No,
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. .-.7Z
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. (
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE.O CS
AUTH: HR 70-2
RATE: airs.. REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
76
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
yawl JEA....1\..0
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Soviet official hints at possible Chinese counteraction in Indochina
(page 3).
2. Indian policy announcement on Indochina reported in preparation
(page 3).
3. India reported pressing Argentina to request UN session on H-bomb
(page 4).
4.
5.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Philippine official cautions on recognition of Associated States
(page 5).
6. Dien Bien Phu air supply threatened (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian officials find initial oil consortium proposals unacceptable
(page 7).
8.
WESTERN EUROPE
* * * *
2
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
17 Apr 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
'ii 1.A..d IkL, 1
GENERAL
1. Soviet official hints at possible Chinese counteraction in Indochina:
A member of the Soviet UN delegation in
a conversation with an American official
on 15 April suggested "on a personal basis"
the possibility of a compromise settlement
In Indochina similar to the Korean armistice,
under which lighting would cease and each side would retain possession
of the areas it now holds. He said the Chinese were sincere in their
desire to have a period of peace and were prepared to "accept a com-
promise," but that just as in Korea, when MacArthur approached the
Yalu River, they "could not be blind" to the threat of French and now
American action.
Comment: This is the most specific Com-
munist suggestion to date on cease-fire terms. Soviet diplomats have
twice previously suggested that partition would meet China's security
needs and that the Korean precedent might be followed in Indochina.
The hint of possible Chinese counteraction
Is much less threatening than statements by the Chinese Communists
prior to their intervention in Korea, but it is somewhat stronger than
the cautious Soviet and Chinese press statements that United Nations
intervention in Indochina would end in "defeat for the aggressors."
While these statements may eventually culminate in an explicit warn-
ing such as Chou En-lai's in October 1950, it appears that Moscow and
Peiping are not contemplating any major military moves in Indochina
at this time and that their future actions will depend primarily on the
course of the Geneva negotiations.
2. Indian policy announcement on Indochina reported in preparation:
Ambassador Allen believes that Prime
Minister Nehru, in a forthcoming statement
to the Indian parliament, may call for a
united front of "independent" Asian nations
as an alternative to what he will term the "Western-dominated front"
proposed by the United States. This is also likely to be Nehru's chief
theme at the Colombo meeting of Asian prime ministers, which will
take place simultaneously with the Geneva conference.
- 3 -
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
:17 Apr 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938 11.00,
-
The Australian high commissioner in
New Delhi understands that Nehru's statement will be based on a
policy paper now being prepared, apparently by V. K. Krishna
Menon.
Comment: A policy statement drawn
up by Menon, India's chief UN delegate, would almost certainly
have strong anti-American overtones. He would be the logical
Person to handle this question for Nehru,
3. India reported pressing Argentina to request UN session on H-bomb
An official of the Indian embassy in Buenos
Aires told on
15 April that his government had obtained
the support of 28 countries for a special UN
session on the hydrogen bomb. He added
that it was trying, by holding out the possibility of an Indian purchase
of 39000,000 tons of wheat, to induce Argentina to request such a meet-
ing.
The Latin American countries mentioned
as supporting the Indian proposal are Argentina, Chile, Ecuador,
Guatemala, Mexico, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
Comment: An Indian proposal now before
The UN Disarmament Commission includes provisions concerning the
hydrogen bomb. This is the first indication, however, that India is
seeking a special General Assembly session to discuss it. Convoca-
tion would require 31 votes.
Indian pressure influenced Argentina's vote
on at least one previous occasion, in January 1954, on the question of
recalling a session on Korea. Argentina's financial difficulties have
been aggravated by its inability to dispose of agricultural surpluses,
which now include about 3,000,000 tons of wheat. India is a major
customer for Argentine wheat, but this amount far exceeds its imme-
diate requirements.
- 4 -
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
17 Apr 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938),s
�,40, t
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4.
5. Philippine official cautions on recognition of Associated States;
An official sent by the Philippine government
to observe the situation in Indochina reported
on 8 April that French and Vietnamese forces
could win the war, but that French industrial-
hind the scenes want it prolonged for the sake of profits.
He recommended that his government weigh the Indochina situation care-
fully before committing itself to anything "advancing only French interests."
He also stated that the Vietnamese understand the reasons for Philippine
nonrecognition.
-5
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
17 Apr 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
Nigit 1A.L.:.
6. Dien Bien Phu air supply threatened:
Commissioner General Dejean told
Ambassador Heath on 16 April that
continued Viet Minh occupation of
entrenchments across the landing
strip at Dien Bien Phu would greatly constrict the drop area
for resupply. In response to expressions of gloom by Dejean
over the "deteriorating situation" at the fortress, Heath sug-
gested a French attack against the rear of the Viet Minh. Dejean
said the French already had such a maneuver in mind and had
moved four battalions from northern Laos to a point near Dien
Bien Phu. He feared, however, that the enemy was alert to this
and he was not optimistic that such an attack could be carried out.
Comment: The accuracy of air drops
at Dien Bien Phu has been hampered heretofore by enemy antiair-
craft, which forces planes to high altitudes, and by dropping areas
that were already very small.
6
TOP SPICRPT
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938-
17 Apr 54
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
Nieot 1,-11:A-.1X1'..,
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian officials find initial oil consortium proposals unacceptable:
8.
Foreign Minister Entezam and Finance
Minister Amini told Ambassador Henderson
on 15 April that the memorandum presented
to them by the oil consortium the previous
was unacceptabI�Iran. They were extremely discouraged and
considered the situation grave. They stated that the volume of oil to
be produced--30,000,000 tons by the end of the third year--was too
small and insisted that Iran should have at least as much output as
other Middle East producers.
The officials also objected to the vagueness
of the proposed 50-50 profit-sharing formula and expressed belief that
the consortium intended to manipulate the price of Iranian oil before
determining the profits to be split.
Comment: One of the obstacles to satis-
factory negotiation of the oil dispute is Iranian officials lack of knowl-
edge of international oil pricing and marketing procedures. Although a
full discussion may overcome these particular objections, more diffi-
culty can also be expected on the management problem as well as on the
question of the duration of any agreement with the consortium.
WESTERN EUROPE
- 7 -
TOP SECREI
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
1'7 A.-... M A
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938 iimer
vote 1 %DEA...A.1G 1
-8
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 CO2870938
17 Apr 54