CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/09/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02745269
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: September 5, 1951

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5 September 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. le
Ii DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S 020 A
NEXT RE\AEW DATE:
AUTH. HR 70-2
DAT En MC_
REVIEWER
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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1.
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SUMMARY
� IDENERA.L
Smaller NATO countries may attempt to check power
(page 3).
Indonesia likely to sign Japanese peace treaty (page
FAR EAST
3).
S
of Standing Group
war age 4)
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4.
Enemy achieves reatest offensive tti �
SOUTH ASIA
7,
NEAR EAST
NEAR
'Comment on Polish and Czech bid for Iranian oil
EASTERN EUROPE
EASTERN
age 6)
WESTERN EUROPE
9. New Soviet move tightens economic noose around Berlin (page 7).
10. Increased French pressure for US aid (page 8).
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GENERAL
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1. Smaller NATO comatries ma attem t to check wer of Standin Grou
US NATO Deputy Spofford warns that it would be
a mistake to underestimate the resentment
caused by the three-power Standing Group's re�
fusal to present a ret�rt or to be represented at
the Ottawa meeting of NATO Finance and Foreign Ministers. He expects that
some of the minor NATO countries will now press strongly for greater influ-
ence over the deliberations of the Standing Group.
Comment; The Stanket,ng Group argues that the
Ottawa meeting is primarily non-military. Several NATO nations, however,
claim that a military progress report is needed, and that a Standing Group
representative should be present to answer questions. The NATO govern -
ments not represented on the Standing Group are jealous of the power they
have delegated, and, unless the Standing Group takes steps to keep them bet-
ter informed of its deliberations, they will undoubte4, y demand a share in
decisions now made by the Big Three.
Indonesia likely to sign Ja
anese peace treaty:
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Despite important political and press opposition
in Indonesia to signature of the Japanese peace
treaty, the US Ambassador in Djakarta expects
the government to authorize its delegation at
San Francisco to sign the treaty and to obtain majority sup rt in Parliament
when the question of ratification subsequently arises.
The Indonesian Prime Minister is currently
demonstrating exceptional firmness in his determination to have Indonesia
sign the treaty. Both President Sukarno and Vice President Hatta support him
strongly in this policy.
Comment: The Indonesian delegation at San
Francisco was not given advance authority by its government to sign the treaty.
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FAR EAST
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*Laku.e.�_gi-eat_e_s_t_sifensitenti.al of Korean warz
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The Far East Command; in a new estimate of
enemy offensive potential, believes the Commu-
nist forces capable of the following coordinated
effort (a) an attack Loward Seoul from the north
with five to seven Chinese Communist armies, supported by one North Korean
and probably one Chinese Communist tank division; (b) another attack toward
Seoul from the northeast with two Chinese Communist armies; and (c) second-
ary attacks with three North Korean corps on the east flank or one on the West.
The enemy is believed to have stockpiled, well forward, enough supplies to
support a general offensive for more than three weeks. He is also believed
capable of readying about 715 combat aircraft (including over 400 jet fighters)
based in Manchuria in support of a ground offensive, which could be spear-
headed by an attack of 2000 airborne troops. 3.3(h)(2)
TO
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SOUTH ASIA
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NEAR EAST
7. Comment on Polish and Czech bid for Iranian oil;
Pan, according to its official spokesman, is
considering a bid from Poland and Czechoslovakia for the purchase of 700, 000
and 500, 000 tons of oil respectively. It was also stated that companies in the
US, Italy and Sweden had offered to supply tankers.
Poland owns four tankers with a combined ton-
nage of 22, 044 and charters three totaling 17, 378 tons. The Czechs have no
ocean going tankers under their control. Using its entire tanker facilities
Poland could move the 1, 200, 000 tons of oil under consideration in approxi-
mately three years. There is no indication that any sizealole number of tankers
will be available for charter anywhere in the free world.
EASTERN EUROPE
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It'!" SEUREE
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WESTERN EUROPE
New Soviet move tightens egonomic noose around Berlin:
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On 31 August Soviet and East German authori-
ties further tightened the economic squeeze on
West Berlin by imposing a toll on all West Ger-
man traffic between Berlin and Western Ger-
many. Exempting Allied and East German traffic, they levied the tax--for
"maintenance of the road" --on each one-way trip made by both cars and
trucks. West German truckers reacted sharply by blocking the highway at
the Helmstedt border point, in an attempt to prevent compliance and force
action by West German authorities to alleviate the situation.
Local US officials see no chance for imme-
diate relief to the shippers who carry most of West-Berlin's imports of
�perishOble foods. The thirteen freight trains now running daily to Berlin are
the limit permitted the Allies and are already fully utilized, although some
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unused capacity is available on the Elbe waterway. These officials estimate
that the new tax, if absorbed by shippers and consignees, would increase
shipping costs at least 20 per cent, result in a "palpable increase" in the
cost of food and other imports, and measurabl affect the competitive position
of West Berlin's industry.
The Allied commandants in Berlin met on
3 September with West Berlin officials to discuss possible countermeasures,
Including the taxing of all East German barges passing through West Berlin
locks, an effective measure in the past.
Comment: This latest Soviet move, apparently
under consideration since at least last Tune, represents another in a series
of measures designed to harass West Berlin, and a possible further step to
force resumption of interzonal German trade. The step, which will greatly
Increase the general uncertainty and alarm in Berlin, may also be intended
to give the USSR an additional bargaining point should Four Power talks on
the trade impasse be resumed.
10. Increased French Pressure for US aid;
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French Vice-Premier Georges Bidault expects
to be able to convince the US at Ottawa that,
with assured levels of American aid, France
will substantially fulfill its NATO commitments.
A foreign office spokesman has revealed,
however, that discussions in government cir-
cles have resulted in 4-cqxtremely gloomy es-
timate of French capabilities, particularly
after allowing for outside aid on the basis of
present prospects.
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Comment: Two months ago the US Embassy
and the ECA Mission in Paris urged a firm US commitment of a definite
credit for the calendar year, pointing out that a continuous depreciation of
the franc could prevent the French from fulfilling their rearmament program.
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