CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/07/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02740745
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 26, 1951

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26 July 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 14
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE
AUTH: H 7Q
SATE
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REVIEWER:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
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GENERAL
1. Denunciation of Japanese peace treaty by Philippine legislator may preclude
Philippine signature (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Communists may launch strong local attacks in Korea during negotiations
'(page 3).
3. Possible preparations in Peiping for an international conference (pper,
NEAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on progress toward new international status for West Germany
(page 5).
SCANDINAVIA
6. Swedish Army mission to study US training methods (page 6).
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GENERAL
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1, �enunciation of a anese .eace tre t b Phili me le islator ma reclude
Philippine signature:
The US Ambassador in Manila states that t13.3,
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24 July speech of Eugenio Perez, Speaker oi
the Philippine House of Representatives, is
tantamount to assurance that the Philippines
will not sign the Japanese peace treaty. The Speaker, who is closer
than any other administration leader to the "grass roots, '1 is embarking
On a tour of the islands to popularize his opposition to the treaty. Although
his motives are mainly political, his stand will have a widespread effect
and will heighten the intense emotions already generated by the treaty. The
Ambassador concludes that "the situation" will progressively worsen..
Comment: Perez is probably the most powerful
political figure in the Philippines; he is chairman of the incumbent Liberal
Party and a likely contender for the presidency in 1953. While his speech
was focused on the reparations and security clauses of the Japanese treaty,
he also directed a bitter diatribe against US foreign policy. Its purpose,
and that of his proposed tour, presumably is to augment his own political
prestige and steal the initiative from the opposition party before the November
electoral campaign goes into full swing. The effect of the speech and of
those scheduled to follow undoubtedly will make compromise on the treaty far
more difficult
2. onimunists ma
FAR EAST
aun h stron loca Kor. dur
The Far East Command believes that the 3.3(h)(2)
enemy may launch one or more strong local
attacks prior to the completion of armistice
negotiations. The advantages of local successes
would be the seizure of important terrain objectives and the improvement
of troop morale. The high ground south of the Pyonggang-Kumhwa-Chorwon
triangle is of sufficient importance to warrant a limited attack.
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rrep-SEeRET
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lisor OtilAIL
Comment: The "Iron Triangle," with its
important road net and forward supply positions, was utilized by the
CoMmunists as a base of operations in the spring offensives. Recent
eastward displacement of Chinese Communist forces and the relief
of 'front line units in the central sector have put a concentration of fresh
troops in position to undertake such a limited attack.
3. Possible preparations in Peiping for an international conference:
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According to the French Consul General in
Pe iping, the Central Committee of the
Chinese Communist Party has been ordered
to move its offices from the former US
Embassy compound in Peiping, and orders have been issued for the removal
of the anti-American posters that all shops had previously been required
to display. The French official speculates that these developments point
to the "possibility of some understanding" between the Peiping regime and
the US, or to preparations for holding an "international conference" in
Peiping.
Comment: Neither of these developments
has been confirmed by other sources. Communist propaganda has provided
some basis for the speculation that the Chinese Communists may propose
a conference at Peiping on various Far Eastern problems. Recent Chinese
Communist pronouncements, however, have provided no indication of a
fundamental change in Peiping's hostility toward the US and ildelity to the "
USSR.
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WESTERN EUROPE
5. Comment on progress toward new international status for West Germany;
West German and Allied representatives
have made considerable progress in negotiating contracts that will specify
a new international status for the West German Republic, although many
points of disagreement remain. These contracts, whickvill largely
replace the Occupation Statute, will lay the groundwork for a German
defense contribution and carry forward the process of bringing Germany
into the Western system.
The Germans do not believe that contracts.
are necessary on all the subjects proposed by the Allies. They oppose,
for example, a contract to ensure the preservation of democracy in the
Federal Republic. They look to their contemplated Constitutional Court�
to guarantee civil rights and the constitutionality of German laws, and
believe a parallel Allied control would only discourage the growth of
demccratic feeling. This view is largely shared by the British, but is
rejected by the French, who share the US position that the contracts must
clearly spell out the Allied right to intervene when German democracy is
threatened.
The Allies are reserving certain powers that
they will retain after the contractual arrangements are concluded. Their
special status, deriving from quadripartite agreements, will allow them to
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maintain forces in Germany and try cases of offenses against the Allied
foroes. They would also assume responsibility in the matters of German
unity and a peace settlement, and, in emergencies, would be empowered
to take action without consulting Federal Republic authorities. The
Germans concede the general right of the Allies to a special status,
but are not disposed to accept all its implications.
SCANDINAVIA
6. Swedish Army mission to study US training methods:
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A Swedish Army mission is coming to the US
to study military training methods. The US
Embassy in Stockholm urges the fullest possible
cooperation with the mission on the grounds
that a strong and effective Swedish Army will "clearly and unequivocally"
benefit the US, since its sole purpose would be to defend Sweden against
a Soviet attack.
comment: Swedish military leaders recognize
that inadequate training of conscripts constitutes one of Sweden's greatest
military weaknesses. There is almost no training in units above company
size, and the conscription period of nine months, with a 30-day refresher
course the following year, is too short. The existence of 850,000 physically-
fit trained reserves supplies the basis for a sound army, provided the
training program is improved and the conscription period lengthened.
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