CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/12/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739327
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 9, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
9 December 1951
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
3.5(c)
DOCUMENT NO. .
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. K
I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S twit* 3.5(c)
NEXT REVIEW DATE. w r.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Continued sizable flow of strategic materials to Orbit foreseen for
1952 (page 3).
USSR
2. Soviet ultimatum on assistance to Iran reported (page 3),
FAR EAST
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Difficulties foreseen in negotiations on West German defense
contribution (page 6).
9. Pleven government threatened on ratification of Schuman Plan
(page 7).
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3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
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GENERAL
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3.3(h)(2)
1. Continued sizable flow of strategic materials to Orbit foreseen for 1952:
The US delegation to the current Coordinating
Committee negotiations on strategic exports
believes that in 1952 exports to the Soviet
bloc, which are subject to quantitative con-
trols, may be limite to one-tenth of the participating countries' total
exports to the Orbit. Previously, it had been estimated that strategic
items would account for possibly one-third of total exports to the East.
The delegation assumes that the total ex-
ports will reach a value of 510 million dollars, compared to 535 million
in 1950. These estimates do not include "illegal" trade.
Comment: The estimates of strategic ex-
ports do not take into account, items such as tin, rubber, and ships, not
covered by the Committee's restrictions. During the first six months
of 1951, moreover, even embargoed items,val.ued at nearly 3 million
dollars, were permitted to enter the Orbit as exemptions under embargo
agreements.
Furthermore, illegal or "unrecorded"
trade, will be largely in strategic materials and will supply the Soviet
bloc additional imports which are likely to equal in value the 1952
export total assumed above.
�
USSR
2. Soviet ultimatum on assistance to Iran reported:
3.3(h)(2)
The USSR allegedl.y has intimated to the
Iranians that they will be given until 11 De-
g,ember to decide whether to "ask for Soviet
assistance."
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Comment: This warning undoubtedly
refers to a Soviet offer made in September to provide Iran with economic
assistance and qualified oil technicians. While it is possible that the
USSR is applying pressure to conclude such an agreement, it is unlikely
that the Iranians will respond. Furthermore, the ultimate aims of the
Soviet Union could hardly be furthered by closing the door on negotiations.
3.3(h)(2)
FAR EAST
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(h)(2)
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. Difficulties foreseen in negotiations on West German defense contribution:
The Allied High Commissioners in Germany
plan to meet with Chancellor Adenauer on
14 December to discuss the question of a
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west German contribution to western European defense. An effort will
then be made to convince the Chancellor of the reasonableness of the
Allied request for 3. 2 billion dollars for the next year and to offset the
campaign waged by Finance Minister Schaeffer against the size of the
contribution.
The French representative on the High
Commission, acting under instructions, has refused to discuss with
Adenauer the extent to which military equipment could be produced by
the German economy until the question of the provision of security
safeguards has been agreed upon by the three Governments.
Comment: Schaeffer, representing the
reactionary wing of Adenauer's government, has always been hostile
to Allied economic policies in Germany. Although backed by German
financial interests, he has no widespread popular support.
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Until security safeguards are assured,
the French are not likely to retreat to the extent of discussing German
production of munitions, particularly in view of the worsening prospects
for early conclusion of a European Defense Forces agreement.
9. Pleven government threatened on ratification of Schuman Plan:
3.3(h)(2)
The US Embassy in Paris estimates that
the Pleven government "should be able to
muster a narrow majority" for the vote of
confidence on the Schuman Plan on 11
ecem er. oug is vote will be taken on a motion by non-Gaullist
rightists to return the treaty to committee for further study, rather
than on the question of ratification, Pleven made it plain that approval
of this motion would amount to rejection of the Plan.
Comment: Assembly approval of this
motion would be an important step toward cooperation of rightist coa-
lition elements with the Gaullists as well as a serious blow to the
centrist coalition on which the present cabinet is based.
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