CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/12/07

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739325
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 7, 1951

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7 December 1951
Copy No.
4 7
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 44
DOCUMENT NO ---.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
� DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS 3 160
NEXT RE.VIEW DATE:
AUT ft HR 7Q
DAT DAT
REVIEWEF
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Comment on Soviet position at UN disarmament talks (page 3
FAR EAST
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4. Chinese Communist forces on Indochina border may total 290, 000
(page 4).
NEAR EAST
5. Saudi Arabian Finance Minister harasses Arabian American Oil
Company (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
3.3(h)(2)
WESTERN EUROPE
7. West Germans still reluctant to stop all shipments to East Germany
(page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on aviiet position at UN disarmament talks:
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At the big-power disarmament talks at the
UN General Asoembly the USSR is evidently seeking an immediate ban on the
atomic bomb in exchange for the questionable possibility of a later control
agreement covering the entire atomic energy and armaments fields. Once
the West agreed to such a ban, the Soviet Union would probably have little
interest in arriving at an agreement on control of atomic energy, since the
West would already be morally committed not to produce or use the bomb.
The USSR also continues to seek agreement in
principle on a one-third reduction of conventional armaments and armed
forces of the Big Five. Acceptance of this principle would tend to hinder
the build-up of NATO defense without providing any mechanism for reducing
Soviet and Satellite armed forces, and without taking into account the
existing level and type of armaments.
FAR EAST
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3.
4. Chinese Communist forces on Indochina border may total 290, 000:' 3.3(h)(2)
/study, regarded as probably
accurate/ j es-
timates that there are up to 290,000 Chinese
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Communist troops near the Indochina border. Of these forces -- disposed
Kwangsi, Yunnan, Kwangtung Provinces and on Hainan Island -- the
study considers the presence of 150, 000 as confirmed, 65, 000 as probable,
and 75,000 as possible.
Comment: The presence of at least 150, 000
Chinese Communist troops on the Indochina frontier -- the number estimated
to be necessary for internal security purposes -- has been accepted for
several months. Additional forces, totaling between 50, 000 and 150, 000
troops, have reportedly been moving into this area in recent weeks, but
there is no reliable evidence of a Chinese Communist intention to invade
Indochina at this time.
3.3(h)(2)
NEAR EAST
5. Saudi Arabian Finance Minister harasses Arabian American Oil Company:
The Saudi Arabian Finance Minister appears to
be deliberately creating serious difficulties for
the Arabian American Oil Company. His tactics
include a 4 December order prohibiting the
compa from shipping oil out of Saudi Arabia. He has also reportedly been
talking to his subordinates about breaking up A.RAMCO into smaller units
and nationalizing Saudi Arabian oil.
The Finance Minister may be trying to make the
company more pliable for his future financial demands, or he may be pre-
paring to attack its oil concession.
The US Ambassador feels that while there is
no evidence that a major showdown is coming in Saudi Arabia, there are
some ominous portents of trouble.
Comment:
he continues to enjoy the confidence o King Ibn au
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can be expected to attempt to squeezo more money out of ARAMCO, at the
same time keeping a close eye on Irdnian oil nationalization developments.
In view df the strength of his enemies the
Finance Minister's tenure of office Would seem to be limited strictly by
the life of the aged and ailing King.
EASTERN EUROPE
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. West Germans still reluctant to stop all shipments to East Germany:
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West German officials, under considerable
pressure from local business interests, are un-
willing to suspend trade with East Germany
despite their earlier agreement to do so if
Soviet harassing of Berlin trade continued. Because the French and British
are satisfied to let the matter "simmer," some interzonal trade still con-
tinues.
US High Commissioner McCloy recommends
that representations be made in London and Paris aimed at stopping all
interzonal trade until the Berlin situation improves.
Comment: Soviet interference with Berlin trade
is continuing, although to a lesser degree since the signing of the latest
interzonal trade pact in mid-September. Britain and France have not yet
accepted the US position that shipments to East Germany must be stopped
completely if the Russians are to be forced to cease their harassing tactics.
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