CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/11/11

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739308
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 11, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
11 November 1951
opy N 3.5(c)
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE FM CLASS.
F DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
_ 2001
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTHiostiFiii0-444
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Communist ground forces expected to remain on defensive in Korea
2.
3.
4.
5. Egyptian Government concerned over internal Situation (page 5).
6.
7. Comment on deferment of Moroccan debate in UN General Assembly (page 6).
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(nage
3)
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(page 3). 3.3(h)(2)
Progress of the Vietnamese Army disappointing (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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EASTERN EUROPE
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(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Western promise of ultimate NATO membership may satisfy Germany
(page 7).
11.
12.
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1. Communist ground forces expected to remain on defensive in Korea: 3.3(h)(2)
2.
The Far East Command, in a detailed analysis
of the enemy's military intentions, foresees
that the Communists will continue to defend their
present ground positions. It is probable, however,
that local counter-attacks to .restore positions lost to the UN and limited
"spoiling" attacks to disrupt UN offensive preparations will continue.
There continue to be, according to FECOM, no
indications that the Communists will utilize in the immediate future the
still considerable offensive potential they retain in western Korea.
Comment: There are indications that the over-
all enemy ground offensive potential in Korea has somewhat deteriorated in
the past several weeks due to logistic difficulties and to a shortage of imme-
diately available reserves in forward areas.
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Progress of the Vietnamese Army disappointing:
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The US Legation in Saigon is concerned over -
the lack of real progress in the creation of a
Vietnamese army. The administration of mo-
bilization has demonstrated grave defects in the
Huu government and the population is unenthusiastic about fighting under the
leadership of Bao Dai, Huu and De Lattre.
Comment: As long as Premier Huu retains
the Defense portfolio -- he also heads four other ministries -- efficient and
vigorous development of a Vietnamese army will be precluded. His un,
fitness for the job is widely recognized.
Although the Vietnamese population is con-
siderably more aware now than a year ago of the Communist threat to their
country, the people are generally reluctant to fight for a government which
is believed controlled by the French and in an army suspected of being an
appendage of the French army.
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5. Egyptian Government concerned over internal situation:
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The Egyptian Government fears that its troops
arid police are numerically insufficient to prevent
the spread of rioting and discontent into the
provinces, a reliable source reveals. The
government is reportedly concerned in particular with the growth in power of
the Moslem Brotherhood, and it is accordingly doing everything possible to
restrict the rising influence of this fanatic, nationalist group.
Comment: The frequency of incidents in Egypt
poses a definite threat to the present government in Cairo. This factor has
probably been responsible for the existence of a large number of rumors
pointing to the formation of a new Egyptian Cabinet. As long as the Anglo-
Egyptian dispute remains a burning political issue, there is good reason to
doubt whether any other government would better maintain public order than
the present one, which is directed by Egypt's major political party. 3.3(h)(2)
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7. Comment on deferment of Moroccan debate in UN General Assembly:
8.
North African nationalists probably will make
strong verbal protests against the UN General Committee's postponement of
debate on Arab charges that France is violating human rights in Morocco.
The Communist press also will exploit US support for French "repressive"
measures as another example of US "imperialism" in Africa. Demonstrations
and disorders are probable, but sufficient French troops are in the area to
control the situation.
This postponement is a major political and
diplomatic victory for France as well as for Western solidarity. French. US
relations throughout North Africa, but most particularly in Morocco, can
now be expected to improve. The US, however, will lose favor with the
Moroccan Sultan and the nationalists, although neither will turn to the USSR
for assistance.
The Arab states have indicated their intention
to bring up the matter again when the Committee presents its proposed agenda
for the approval of the General Assembly as a whole. Most Moroccan
nationalist leaders, however, may be privately glad that the question is post-
poned because they have been apprehensive that the case was jeopardized by
hasty preparation of the brief.
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EASTERN EUROPE
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10. Western promise of ultimate NATO membership may satisfy Germany:
High Commissioner McCloy declares it is
clear that while Chancellor Adenauer is not
demanding German membership in NATO now,
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he nevertheless will not accept any arrangement which ultimately will dis-
criminate against Germany. McCloy believes that Adenauer would accept
an arrangement whereby the Western Allies would give their assurances
that at some "appropriate time" not too far distant they would see that
Germany had the same relationship with NATO as other participants in the
European Defense Community. As Adenauer would have to use such a
promise in his dealings with German parliamentary leaders, it could not
be kept secret.
Comment: It has been apparent for some weeks
that the problem of Germany's relationship to NATO was worrying Adenauer.
Although the matter is not an urgent one at the moment, the Chancellor will
certainly require satisfactory answers when the European army plan comes
before the Bundestag, where the prevailing view is that Germany must
receive equal treatment.
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