CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/11/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739301
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: November 2, 1951

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SEC1JR INFORMATION
2 November 1951
Copy No.
47
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 4�04
DOCUMENT NO
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AUTH: HR 7C-2
DAIL/7711 I
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP
SEC � INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
SOUTH ASIA
1. Comment on India's food prospects for 1952 (page 3).
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Egyptian police activity undermining British position in Suez canal area
(page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
5, Yugoslav Government expects no agreement with Italy on Trieste
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
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6. British appear reluctant to suspend German interzonal trade (page 5).
8. Netherlands critical of details of European Defense Forces plan
(page 7).
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1. Comment on India's food prospects for 1952:
A recent public announcement by the Indian Food
Ministry indicates that widespread droughts and floods are creating the threat
of a 1952 famine equal to that experienced this year, when India was forced
to increase by two million tons its normal food grain imports of three million
tons per year.
Since it is anticipated that India's balance of
payments and foreign exchange positions will be less favorable at the beginning
of 1952 than they have been this year, India may be even less able to pay for
future rood grain imports.
The Indian Food Ministry announcement appears
to have been made at this early date to prepare foreign powers for another
request for major food grain assistance. A statement by India"s Ambassador
to Peiping on 3 October that China had three million tons of surplus food grains,
which could be sent to India if transportation were available, may also be cal-
culated to stimulate Western interest in India's problem.
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4. Egyptian police activity undermining British position in Suez canal area:
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Intimidation by the Egyptian police is effectively
reducing the supply of Egyptian labor available to
the British forces in the Suez canal zone. In
ddition, the police are permitting mobs to destroy
ritish food supplies and in some places are
oining extremist groups in forcibly preventing
orkers from entering the canal zone.
ritish Foreign Office officials have expressed
itterness at the failure of the Egyptian Minister
f Interior to keep his promise that there would
e no interference with labor or with essential
upp les, an t ey believe that terrorist groups are entering the canal zone
with at least the connivance of the government.
The US Ambassador in Cairo reports that, in an
effort to force corrective action by the Egyptian Government, British military
authorities "have again virtually turned off the tap" of Egypt's oil supply. The
Egyptians are so thoroughly worked up over the fuel oil stoppage that its only
effect has been to make them more intransigent.
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EASTERN EUROPE
5. Yugoslav Government expects no agreement with Italy on Trieste:
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Comment: Despite Italian and Yugoslav ex-
pressions of willingness to discuss the Trieste issue, there is no evidence
that either country is willing to make concessions sufficient to satisfy the
other's demands.
The Yugoslav Government had agreed that the
negotiations should be undertaken in secrecy, but Marshal Tito in a press
interview on 31 October declared that the Trieste problem might be the sub-
ject of direct talks between Yugoslavia and Italy at the forthcoming UN General
Assembly.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. British appear reluctant to suspend German interzonal trade:
3.3(h)(2)
Foreign Secretary Eden has requested a full re-
port on the Berlin situation, and has instructed
British High Commissioner Kirkpatrick to take
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no strong counteraction at present, for fear of
unnecessarily adding Berlin to Britain's other
difficulties. US High Commissioner McCloy
reports that Kirkpatrick showed some hesitation
a a mee ing on Sctober on the subject of suspending interzonal trade, as
earlier planned by the Allies.
Meanwhile, McCloy states that he will continue
to press for cessation of interzonal trade as soon as possible. He concurs
with the Department of State's feeling that, although such a move is risky
during the winter months because of Berlin's vulnerability, the alternative
of giving in to the East at this time involves more serious dangers.
Comment: This is the first evidence of a re-
ported policy of the new British Government to proceed cautiously on the
German question.
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8. Netherlands critical of details of European Defense Forces plan:
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A Dutch Foreign Office official,, in reviewing his
government's objections to the European Defense
Forces plan, has stressed the Dutch fear that the
plan is being expanded into political and economic
s eyon t rigiraal concept. The Dutch, who believe that there should
be a definite ii between NATO and the European Defense Forces plan,
specifically oppose the proposals for a single high commissioner and a common
defense budget. 3.3(h)(2)
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