CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/06/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02733138
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: June 14, 1951

Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 CO2733138 
Name 1 U k.,.#11-ra 1 Noe' 
14 June 1951 
Copy No. CI - 
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 
DocumENTN0._,Ass 
o 
or,11 
Office of Current Intelligence 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 
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SUMMARY 
FAR EAST 
2. Far East Command estimates Communist air capabilities in lorea 
(page 3). 
3. Hong Kong represented as "defenseless" to prohibit reexportation 
of trucks to Communist China (page 3). 
SOUTH ASIA 
4. Indian arms for Afghanistan are ready for shipment (page 4). 
NEAR EAST 
5. British considering boycott of Iranian oil if negotiations break down 
(Page 5). 
6. Sheikh of Bahrein to receive increased oil revenues (page 5). 
EASTERN EUROPE 
7. Yugoslays encouraging development of national Communist party in 
Greece (page 6). 
8. Czech Government noncommital regarding landing of US Jets (page 7). 
A 
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FAR EAST 
Far East Command estimates Communist air Capabilities in Korea:, 
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The Far East Command estimates that a full.3.3(h)(2) 
scale Chinese Communist-North Korean air 
attack on UN ground units in Korea in an initial 
assault could include 350 jet and 45 conventional 
fighter sorties. An operation of this size would disrtipt UN ground sup-
port activity and greatly curtail airborne supply of ground units in the 
battle area. Owing to the distance of currently operational enemy bases 
from the front lines and the proximity of UN air bases, the enemy probably 
would sustain severe losses; realization of this is believed to be a sig-
nificant deterrent to this type of attack. FECOM notes, however, that the 
repair and construction of North Korean airfields, the improvement and 
expansion of radar warning and control facilities, and an increase in 
enemy anti-aircraft artillery strength in North Korea have given the enemy 
the capability of expanding his defensive air operations 'itauthward from the 
Yalu River at any time. 
3. Hong Kong represented as "defenseless" to prohibit reexportation of truck 
1,9 Communist China 
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Comment: The allegation that the Hong Kong 
government is powerless to prevent reexport of trucks is questionable. 
The Colonial Government last month banned the reexport of 51 Dodge 
trucks which it considered "military type" but is reluctant to extend this 
precedent to all trucks. 
SOUTH ASIA 
4. latilga.amElor ,Afghanistan are ready for shi ement: 
Comment: Negotiations regarding this arms 
deal have been carried on since mid-1950, and India has made a loan 
to Afghanistan to cover the cost of the purchase. Since there apparently 
Is an understanding that the loan need not be repaid, it seems likely that 
Afghanistan is committed in return to a continuation of its anti-Pakistan 
propaganda campaign for Pushtoonistan or at least to supplying these arms 
to tribesmen along the Afghan-Pakistani border. India has repeatedly 
denied its complicity in the Pushtoonistan affair and has assured US repre-
sentatives that it desires a solution of the question. 
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NEAR EAST 
5. British  considerincott of Iranian oil if negotiations break down: 
US Embassy. London reportsthat ateznporary 3.3(h)(2) 
cessation of the exportation of Iranian oil in case 
negotiations between the Anglo-Iranian Oil 
Company and Iran should be broken off is very 
probably under consideration by the company and the UK Foreign Office. 
A study recently made at government request reportedly reveals that 
less than 5 percent of present Iranian oil exports could continue to be 
exported if the AIOC boycotted Iran, since the AIOC would expect the 
cooperation of the major US oil companies and the lack of tankers would 
limit the ability of other purchasers to move the oil. In addition, the 
AIOC is understood to be considering the possibility of taking legal action, 
in case of its withdrawal, against any purchasers of Iranian oil on the 
ground that the supplies would be "stolen Olin" The Embassy emphasizes, 
however, that it has no reason to believe that the AIOC would resort to an 
interruption of Iranian oil exports as part of the tactics of negotiation.. 
Comment; This report adds to other indica-
tions that neither the AIOC representatives nor the Iranians are approach-
ing the forthcoming negotiations in as conciliatory a frame of mind as 
public statements suggest. 
6. Sheikh of Bahrein to receive increased oil revenues: 
According to the British Foreign Office, the 
US-controlled Bahrein Petroleum Company 
is planning to increase substantially its pay-
ments to the Sheikh of Bahrein Island (in the 
Persian Gulf). The company reportedly decided to offer these larger 
payments because events in neighboring oil-producing countries make 
It desirable to grant the Sheikh increased payments in order to protect 
the company's investment in the island's refinery facilities. 
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Comment: With the future operation of the 
Abadan refinery jeopardized as a result of political events in Iran, the 
importance of the Bahrein refinery (second in capacity in the Near East) 
has suddenly' increased greatly for Western as well as Near Eastern 
oil needs. 
EASTERN EUROPE 
7. Yugoslays encouraging development of national Communist party in Greece  
3.3(h)(2) 
The US Ambassador to Greece reports that 
there is evidence that Yugoslav representatives 
in Greece are interested in the development of 
a national Communist party in Greece, but 
there is no indication of any Yugoslav success in this effort. The Ambas-
sador states that the Yugoslav Legation in Athens and Consulate in Salonika 
have intimate contact with certain Greek leftists who are seeking to found 
such a party, but there is no evidence to date of Yugoslav financial back-
ing. Ambassador Peurifoy is of the opinion that Yugoslav interest in the 
creation of a Greek Titoist movement has been limited, and is not likely 
unduly to disturb relations between the two countries in the near future. 
Comment: The Yugoslays, whose prestige in 
Greek Communist circles was appreciable before the Cominform break, 
have sought to retain their influence and challenge the position of the USSR 
and Bulgaria among Greek Communist and leftist groups. Any extensive 
Yugoslav efforts to encourage a pro-Yugoslav Communist Party or to 
champion the rights of the Macedonian minority in Greece, however, will 
arouse official Greek suspicions and hamper the development of any mutual 
defense understanding. 
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8. Cpcb, Qovernment noncomm4a1 regarding landing of US jets.: 
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As of 12 June the Czechoslovak Foreign Office 
still refused to acknowledge the landing of two 
lost US jet_plOes-at Kbely airfield near plague 
on 8 June. The Foreign Office has maintained 
that the investigation of the planes' whereabouts is the responsibility of 
another branch of the government, but promised to push the "competent" 
authorities for a 'reply. The US Embassy in Prague comments that the 
plane incident furnishes Communist hotheads with an opportunity to im-
pair US-Czech relations still further. The Embassy believes that delay 
of the Czechoslovak Government in confirming the presence of the jets 
may indicate that the authorities are still debating a course to adopt. 
Meanwhile, the Embassy has been informed that a member of a Western 
mission/ s air attache office in Prague caught a fleeting glimpse of a jet 
plane in the air near Kbely on 10 June which he was reasonably certain 
was an American Thunderjet type. 
Comment: If the plane observed on 10 June 
was a Thunderjet, it is possible that one of the lost planes was being 
test-flown by the Czechs. No Soviet jet planes are known to be in Eastern 
Europe which could be readily mistaken for a Thunderjet. 
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