CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02733125
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 12, 1951

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12 May 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
USSR offers another counter-proposal concerning Foreign Ministers'
Conference (page 3).
UK Government bans rubber shipments to Communist China (page 3).
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3.3(h)(2)
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Interest of US companies in Iranian oil could add complications (pag
FAR EAST
Communist forces in Korea shift to east for next attack (page 5).
NEAR EAST
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Iranian military informed that Kurdish tribal revolt is brewing (page 6).
Israel opposes any compromise over the demilitarized area along the
Syrian-Israeli border (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
Unidentified submarine sighted in Yugoslav waters (page 7
LATIN AMERICA
Armed services conspiracy against the Per6ns rumored (page 8).
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GENERAL
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SR offers another counter- irososal toncernin Forel n Ministers' Conference�
In the 10 Ma t7 session of the Paris conference, Soviet
delegate Gr6myko accepted with three qualifications
an agenda fOr a foreign ministers' meeting based on
a Western alternative proposal. The qualifications
are that (a) German demilitarization should be listed first as an agreed sub-
item, (b) a Soviet proposal on North Atlantic Treaty bases should be added
as an another unagreed point, and (c) the order of items should be examined.
In a typical long propaganda harangA, Gromyko re-emphasized the peaceful
policy of the Soviet Union as contraited with aggressive Western policies,
such as the North Atlantic Treaty anti the continuation of Western flefense
measutes while the deputies were meeting,
Comment: Oh 2 May, the Western Powers introduced
three separate alternative proposals ai4 their maximum effort to make possible
a foreign ministers' meeting. Gromylio's latest tactic represents an attempt
to capitalize on Western concessions in two of these proposals and thus to
approach the original Soviet agenda dethands. On 4 May Gromyko "accepted"
the first Western proposal provided that the Soviet position on reduction of
armaments, limited to those of the four powers, be accepted.
2. UK Government bans rubber shipments to Communist China 3.3(h)(2)
In announcing to Parliament that the UK Government
is imposing an immediate embargo on further ship-
ments of rubber to Communist China in 1951, Sir
Hartley Shawcross, the President of the Board of
Trade, emphasized that the US had not in any way "agreed" to the British
control action, After justifying the embargo on the ground that excessive
quantities of rubber have already been shipped this year, Shawcross pointed
out that general exports to China from US-controlled Japan had also in-
creased recently, Shawcross did promise support for the US with respect to
UN measures restricting trade with China, Immediately before his speech,
Winston Churchill asked for the rubber embargo in the name of US-UK
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cooperation, urged Parliament not to be deterred by any threat to Hong Kong,
and argued that the US' would undoubtedly join in any measures that wouk'
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be necessary to meet such a threat
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The US Embassy in London concurs with the 3.3(h)(2)
Department of State that the employment of a US
company to exploit Iranian oil might have unfortunate
repercussions. The Embassy fears that such a
development would lend substance to the Soviet line that the US is attempting
to "gain mastery" over Iran and that US oil companies are seeking to supplant
UK interests in Iran. Any move which might suggest that the US, or US
industry, was enriching itself at the expense of a weakened partner would
result in widespread resentment and disillusionment in the UK and would
inevitably undermine the effectiveness of US-UK partniership.
Cq,mment; In late April, the Departmen of State
informed the US Embassy in Tehran that it understood "on reliable authority"
that the Iranian Embassy in Washington had received two or three offers from
US oil companies. While there is no evidence that Iran is seriously contem-
plating using US firms, their offers may influence the thinking of some Iranian
leaders and may further complicate Iran's relations with the Anglo-Iranian Oil
Company. Iranian Prime Minister Mossadeq, who has acknowledged that
foreign oil experts are necessary for the time being, is probably considering
the possibility of employing experts from various foreign countries.
FAR EAST
5. Communist forces in Korea shift to east fc__.)s_1,1xt attack,
In an estimate of enemy capabilities, the US Far
East Command notes that recent agent, civilian
and prisoner reports support the suspected movement
of major Chinese Communist elements from the
western sector to the Kumwha-Hwachon area of the central front. Elements
of the Chinese Communist 3rd and 19th Army Groups are involved in this
'moue. Apparently Chinese Communist Fourth Field Army units, currently
occupying the central sector, are moving further east.
The Far East Command comments that, because
the recent enemy effort to secure the Seoul-Inchon complex failed, it would
not be illogical for the enemy to shift its efforts to the central sector, where
it has had previous successes.
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NEAR EAST
6. 1r ani an military informed that Kurdish tribal jsztaida
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Comment:, These Kurdish tribal groups, roughly
estimated at 100, 000 individuals, are located close to the Iranian-lraqi frontier
in the Senandaj area -- not on the Soviet border. A Javanrudi revolt was
forcibly put down by the Iranian Army as recently as September 1950. At that
time, there were rumors of Soviet involvement. The present "foreign
propaganda" might, of course, refer to the USSR; it is more likely a reference
to the British, who reportedly have recently been accused by several Iranian
military commanders of engaging in-activity in tribal areas. Tribal leaders
in various sections of Iran have recently made protestations of loyalty to the
Shah, presumably as a result of governmental suspicions that the British were
engaged in intrigues. Reports of unrest recur frequently and cannot be con-
strued as a firm indication of forthcoming disturbances.
3.3(h)(2)
7. Israel o oses an corn sromise over the d
Israeli border:
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Moreover, US Ambassador Davis in Tel Aviv reports
his belief that (a) the manner in which the UN Security Council is handling the
Israeli-Syrian frontier dispute will generally stiffen Israel's attitude on the
border issue and (b) Eban was correct when he recently asserted that "Israel
would display special tenacity" in regard to the :demilitarized area.
Comment: While fighting along the Israeli-Syrian
frontier has lessened in the last few days, the actual dispute is no closer
to solution. On the on. hand, the attitude of the government and the Israeli
public has stiffened and, on the other, the reaction of Syria and the Arab
States generally is becoming more hostile not only toward Israel but also
toward the West.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Unidentified submarine sighted in YugoslAy waters. 3.3(h)(2)
Deputy Chief of Staff Admiral Manola has informed
the US Naval Attache in Belgrade that two sightings
of one, possibly two, unidentified submarines were
made on 6 May near the islands of Lastovo and Vis
in the Adriatic within the Yugoslav six mile lfmit.
The US Attache reports that, when Admiral Manola was informed that the
submarine was not American, he was visibly upset and stated that he had hoped
that it would have been a US submarine. Manola commented that there was no
reason why the Soviet Union should observe these islands since Soviet officials
had supervised the installations on the islands (prior to 1948).
Comment: It is entirely possible that the submarine
or submarines sighted were of Western origin. The USSR is not known to have
any submarines in the Mediterranean, although numerous unconfirmed reports
have been received of submarine activity at Saseno Island, Albania.
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LATIN AMERICA
9.es Aur against the Per6ns rumored:.
i'3.3(h)(2)
The US Embassy in Buenos Aires reports "insistent
and continued rumors" of an armed services cons-
piracy against the Per6ns have recently been uncovered.
According to the Embassy, various Army and Navy
officers are believed to be under arrest and rumors are flying fast, but facts
are scarce.
Comment: Reports of an army conspiracy against
the Per6ns at this time are in line with other indications of increasing political
instability in Argentina. There are signs of continuing labor unrest -- now
serious among railroad workers -- and evidence that non-Peronista groups
are gaining in public favor and influence with labor. These developments may
have caused some members of the army, who are already aroused over Peron's
reportedly firm decision to allow Mrs. Per6n to run for Vice-President, to
conspire against the Per6ns. Furthermore, the recent reported arrest of
Mrs. Sosa Molina -- the wife of Minister of National Defense General Sosa
Molina, who is the spokesman of an army group that has opposed Mrs.
Per4's activities for several years -- may have touched off a conspiracy
by army elements.
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