CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/04/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02733120
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: April 25, 1951

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25 April 1951
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO, wit
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DATE REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligencee
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. Expected enemy strategy in current Korean offensive (page 3).
. Indian Ambassador in Peiping advises against new peace approach
(page 4).
NEAR EAST
4. Extreme nationalists attacic Iranian student parade (page 4).
5. UN authority in Palestine area, reported inadequate (page 5).
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FAR EAST
1. Expected enemy stratesy in current Korean offensive:
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The G-2 section of the US Far East Command,
in an evaluation of Communist intentions in the
22 April offensive, reports a belief that the
enemy's major effort will be mounted in the
west by an estimated force of 337,000 with an objective of capturing the
communications complex of Seoul by 1 May. A secondary effort will
be made in the central zone down terrain corridors by an estimated
147,000 troops with the objective of cutting the UN routes of communi-
cation with the south. This secondary effort in the central sector has,
so far, effected the deepest penetration (12 miles) and has placed the
enemy in a position to exploit his successes along the eastern approaches
to Seoul. A diversionary effort has been made in the eastern sector by
two rehabilitated North Korean corps,
Comment: The concentration of two -- and
possibly three -- Chinese Communist array groups in the western sec-
tor north of Seoul continues to pose the main threat to UN forces, The
taking of additional prisoners from the Chinese Communist 3rd Army
Group north of Seoul tends to confirm the presence of this new major
force in the concentration area in the west.
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3, Indian Ambassador in Peipingadvises against new peace approach:
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Indian Ambassador Panikkar in Peiping has
reportedly advised against making any further
"peace approach" to Communist China at this
time. Panikkar reportedly feels that the Chi-
nese Communists are in a "belligerent frame of mind,_" "particularly
because of the alleged bombing" of the Fukien area by US aircraft.
Comment: Aircraft of the US 7th Fleet conducted
reconnaissance flights over, parts of the Southeast China coast on 11
and 13 April; the Peiping radio claims that these planes strafed and
killed civilians in the area and that other US aircraft bombed Manchurian
cities in early April. There has been no evidence that Communist China
has at any time been prepared to modify its conditions for a "peaceful
settlement" in Korea.
NEAR EAST
4. Extreme nationalists attack Iranian student parade:
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The US Ambassador in Tehran, in reporting the
demonstration of some 3, 000 high school and
university students in Tehran on 22 April,
stated that it was well-organized and led by
members of the pro-Communist Tudeh Party. This planned demon-
stration was aimed against the British and emphasized the death of four
students in the recent Abadan riots. When supporters of the National
Front and Fedayan Islan (extreme Nationalist groups) attempted to dis-
rupt the march, rioting broke out which required police action. The
Ambassador notes that the "active break" between Tudeh and the
Nationalist groups underlines a growing rift based on Fedayan's fanatic
anti-foreign attitude and its dislike for Tudeh propaganda regarding
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the emancipation of women. Moreover, the Nationalists insist that
nationalization be applicable throughout Iran; Tudeh would not oppose
an oil concession to the USSR.
Comment: The Tudeh Party, with its alle-
giance to the USSR, has made common cause with religious fanatics and
extreme nationalists in their desire to natioriallie the Iranian oil in-
dustry. This temporary alliance appears now to be breaking up. While
the antipathy demonstrated by the recent clash may result in a tempor-
ary lessening of the clamor for nationalization, the component elements
have not altered their viewpoints and it may be anticipated that nationali-
zation will continue to be urged.
5. UN authority in Palestine area reported 1na4equate:
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In commenting on the general Israeli-Arab
frontier problems, the US Minister to Lebanon
reports that considerable criticism has been
voiced over the fact that the several Mixed
Armistice Commissions (a separate Alin is organized for each Arab
state which has a common frontier with Israel) have no machinery to
impose their decisions, with the result that no reliance can be put on the
Commission in the event of a serious situation. The Minister believes
that much of this criticism could be avoided if the chairman of the UN
Truce Supervision Organization, which contiols the MAC's could count
on prompt and forceful support in the event that either side disregards
its decisions. The Ministry states that disrespect for the authority
of the MAC' s increases with each incident and that complete backing
for the Truce Supervision Organization seems the only way to avoid
(1) an increasing number of appeals to the Security Council, (2) com-
plete loss of confidence in the UN as an effective body, or (3) an ulti-
mate outbreak of hostilities.
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Comment: The urgent need for definitive UN
authority so that recurrent ineidents along the entire Israeli-Arab
frontier may adequately be handled has been previously stressed by US
and French diplomats in Tel Aviv, Amman and Damascus, as well as
by the reports of UN observers and US press correspondents in the area.
Apparently opinion is nearly unanimous that a strengthened Mixed Armis-
tice Commission organization is urgently needed in the Palestine area.
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