CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/02/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02698156
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: February 19, 1952

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SECUB INFORMATION
19 February 1952
US OFFICIALS ONLY
Copy No. 4t3
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGC; IN CLASS.
I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S of
NEXT REVIEW DATE
AUTI-V-IIIXeChog
DATE* REVIEWER:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Increase of Chinese troop strength near Hong Kong reported (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Iranian Senate insists that oil negotiations continue (page 3).
3. Increasing friction reported between Mossadeq and chief supporter
(page 4).
4. Iranian Communists prove most powerful opposition group in Tehran
elections (page 4).
5. Egyptian domestic situation may result in dissolution of Parliament
(page 5).
6. Tunisian moderates endorse nationalist aspirations (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. West German Cabinet shifts predicted (page 6).
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FAR EAST
1. Increase of Chinese troop strength near Hong Kong reported:
the Paoan
district, about fifty miles northwest of
Hong Kong, 40,000 Chinese Communist
troops arrived there on 11 February. The
source estimates that there are now 80,000 Communist forces in this
area alone.
Comment: Chinese Communist troop
strength in the Hong Kong build-up area has been estimated by Far
East Command at 75,500, including 8,000 troops in artillery and mecha-
nized units.
Chinese Communist propaganda on Hong
Kong has been unprecedentedly threatening during the past three weeks,
but has not yet suggested imminent attack.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Iranian Senate insists that oil negotiations continue:
The Iranian Senate is thoroughly aroused over
the reported break in the World Bank's ne-
gotiations with Mossadeq on the oil problem
and intends to make certain that the talks do
not cease. The president of the Senate has informed the American
Ambassador in Tehran that the Senate considers, however, that itwould
be unwise to insist on acceptance of an agreement which runs counter to
public opinion and consequently could not be enforced for any length of time.
Comment: Unexpected Senate intervention
in the talks between International bank officials and Mossadeq apparently
prevented a breakdown. There may now exist the opportunity that a fair
offer with appropriate face-saving devices may actually be given genuine
consideration by moderate Iranians. Mossadeq is still captive to the
intolerance and hypernationalism he helped arouse. The importance of
Intervention by the Senate, whose power and influence is subordinate to
that of the Majlis, should not be overemphasized.
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3. Increasing friction reported between Mossadeq and chief supporter:
Iranian Minister of Court Ala believes that
there is growing friction between Prime
Minister Mossadeq and National Front Deputy
Kashani.
Mossadeq did not give him sufficient support in the elections, and he is
displeased by the Prime Minister's hesitation in granting his request
for political patronage.
Comment: Friction between various members
of the National Front coalition has been reported previously and may be
expected to grow as conditions deteriorate and the National Front comes
under increasing pressure for economic and social reforms.
While it is possible that this friction is
responsible in part for the recent attempt to assassinate Deputy Fatemi,
there is no indication that Mossadeq 's control of the National Front has
yet been seriously threatened. The withdrawal of Kashani's support
would seriously damage Mossadeq's position, since Kashani occupies a
unique position in religious-nationalist circles.
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4. Iranian Communists prove most powerful opposition group in Tehran elections:
Election returns from Tehran indicate that the 3.3(h)(2)
illegal Tudeh Party is the strongest organized
opposition in that electoral district, Although
the National Front won all twelve parliamentary
seats from Tehran, a Tudeh-sponsored candidate gained fourteenth place
with 29,000 votes as compared with the top Nationalist candidate's 112,000
votes.
The American Embassy notes that the National
Front has covertly been trying to divert the loyalty of the security forces
from the Shah to the government. It fears that continuation of this policy,
together with the expected deterioration of the economic and political
conditions, would create a political vacuum in which the Tudeh would be
left as the only effective organized group.
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Comment: National Front control is expected
to prevent the election of most Tudeh- sponsored candidates. Accordingly,
the Communists are not in a position to obtain control of the government
by legal means. Mossadeq's actions since taking office, however, indicate
that he will continue to do all he can to limit the powers of the Shah and
the Army. This policy, combined with Mossadeq's unwillingness to take
stringent measures against them, will undoubtedly strengthen the Commu-
nists, and there is a real danger that they may eventually attempt to seize
power.
5. Egyptian domestic situation may result in dissolution of Parliament:
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the domestic situation in Egypt may necessitate
the dissolution of Parliament in order to elimi-
nate the power of the Wald.
that Farouk will urgently press for an investigation of those responsible
for the January riots in Cairo. He added that some elements of the Wafd
were in contact with local Communists and were conspiring against the
throne.
Comment:
the King is still considering dismissal of the Wald-controlled
Parliament. Any newly elected Parliament, however, would probably be
controlled by the Wafd; consequently, the government would have difficulty
in escaping that party's influence. Ruling without Parliament couldprobably
be accomplished only with the aid of martial law.
Shadowy connections exist between the Wafd
and the Communists. Some Wald leaders, such as former Foreign Minister
Salaheddin, were opportunistically inclined to do business directly with the
Soviet Union.
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6. Tunisian moderates endorse nationalist aspirations:
The American Consul General in Tunis
reports that Tunisian solidarity has been
increased by the recent violence and that even
non-nationalists are expressing their al-
legiance to Habib Bourghiba. No reputable Tunisian is likely to accept
a post in a Cabinet reorganized at French insistence in opposition to
Neo-Destour will and policy.
The Consul General states that, were
France to stop haggling about conditions under which negotiations would
be resumed and to present concrete proposals, an amicable settlement
might be reached.
Comment: Increased Tunisian solidarity is
confirmed from other sources. Prench Government preoccupation with
other pressing problems apparently has prevented a full study of a
solution to the Tunisian crisis. There is no indication, however, that
French policy-makers contemplate meeting the Tunisian Government's
demands in any respect.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. West German Cabinet shifts predicted:
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Chancellor Adenauer is reportedly about to 3.3(h)(2)
name two new key cabinet members. Heinrich
von Brentano, present leader of the Christian
Democrats in the Bundestag, confirms that
he has been offered the Foreign Affairs Miriistry post now held by the
Chancellor, and Eberhard Wildermuth, present Housing Minister, will
reportedly be named chief defense adviser, or future Minister of Defense.
Brentano, who has not yet formally accepted
the offer, states that he must accept the post and risk a possible clash
with the Chancellor by continuing his attempts to bring about a bipartisan
approach to foreign affairs with the opposition Social Democrats, which
he feels is imperative.
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Local American officials comment that Brentano is
unlikely to challenge Adenauer's authoritarian methods to any great extent.
Comment: Adenauer's party has reacted
unfavorably to the Chancellor's "inept" handling of the opposition during
theY rearmament debates in the Bundestag on 7 and 8 February.
Wildermuth has shown an interest in the defense
post for some time, although he has not been mentioned prominently as a
candidate for the position since late 1950.
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