CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/11/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02693979
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: November 25, 1952

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J. UV 11.11 1
R .
SECURI INFORMATION
25 November 1952
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.?
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AUTH: H179-2
Office of Current Intelligence DATE/Iran') 7REVIEWER: 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEc9Jar1NFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Brazil suspends relations with Iran (page 3).
2. Soviet Far East allegedly aleited for extension of Korean
hostilities (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Sapan again rejects UN demand for exclusive criminal
jurisdiction (page 4).
4. Possible Korean proposals for Eisenhower visit reported (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Philippine Defense Secretary and Quirino reported near break
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Comment on Iraq's political crisis (page 7).
7. Foreign Minister states Israel's position on repatriation of
Arab refugees (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Increased anti-church activity anticipated in East Germany (page 8).
9. Pinay's fate in doubt in forthcoming Assembly debates (page 8).
10. Italy seeks approval to ship embargoed ball bearings to Poland
(page 9).
11. Madrid ready to speed conclusion of US base rights agreement
(page 10).
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GENERAL
1. Brazil suspends relations with Iran:
Comment: The Iranian Government re-
quested the recall of the Brazilian Minister on 25 October because
he had "interfered" in the oil dispute. Underlying this official reason,
however, is the fact that the Minister had close relations with the Shah
and Mossadeq apparently suspected that he was an intermediary between
the Shah and the Western powers.
The Brazilian Charge left Tehran on 23 No-
vember leaving the custody of his Legation premises to the Lebanese
Minister,
2. Soviet Far East allegedly alerted for extension of Korean hostilities:
The Soviet High Command expects that
during December and January hostilities
will open between Communist China and
Formosa and that the Korean war will be
200 bombers and
1,500 jet fighter planes were subsequently flown from bases in the
Crimea and the Urals into the Soviet Far East.
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Comment:
The supply of air-
craft to the Soviet Far East has continued at a moderate pace
throughout 1952 so that jet fighter units are now believed to be
approaching an authorized strength of 1,370 MIG-15's. The num-
ber of medium bombers probably totals 140 and more than 100
jet light bombers have been received to date.
The recent movement of over 40 addi-
tional jet light bombers to the Manchurian area, although outside
the region of the defensive precautions alleged above, fits the ,
general pattern of possible Soviet actions. l
FAR EAST
3. Japan again rejects UN demand for exclusive criminal jurisdiction:
Japan has rejected the UN Command's
12 November demand that United Nations
forces in Japan be granted jurisdictional
treatment equal to that granted American
mbassador Murphy. The memorandum pre-
sented by Foreign Minister Okazaki to the Ambassador on 22 No-
vember also attacked the US administrative agreement as "bitterly
resented by the Japanese people." He subsequently withdrew it when
Murphy expressed "shocked surprise."
Murphy believes that the Japanese are
stalling on the criminal jurisdiction issue in hopes of paving the
way for a modification of the administrative agreement. He also
feels that Okazaki has found the issue an ideal one to meet crit-
icism of his "weak-kneed diplomacy."
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Comment: The Japanese press, in pre-
senting the issue as a surrender of sovereignty, has aroused public
opinion to the point where the government's survival would be threat-
ened if it acceded to the demands of the UN Command. The opposition
parties are not only against granting jurisdictional rights to the UN
forces, but are now unanimous in demanding a revision of these clauses
in the US-Japan security treaty arrangements.
4. Possible Korean proposals for Eisenhower visit reported:
President Rhee intends to tell President-
elect Eisenhower that the South Korean
Government cannot subscribe to any armi-
tice which would leave Korea divided.
Rather, the Chinese Communists must be driven out and general
elections instituted under UN supervision for the purpose of incor-
porating North Korea into the Republic of Korea. United Nations '
troops would remain in the country pending unification.
In addition, Rhee will probably propose
strengthening the South Korean army, repayment of all UN won
drawings, an increase in economic aid, US cooperation in reopening
Korean-Japanese negotiations, and the establishment of a security
system in the Pacific similar to NATO.
Comment: These proposals correspond
generally to positions taken by the South Korean Government.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Philippine Defense Secretary and Quirino reported near break:
Magsaysay is said to be considering re-
signing. He is reported to have reached an agreement on 20 No-
vember with several Nacionalista senators not to seek the presidency
on the Liberal Party ticket, in return for their support should he run
as a Nacionalista or independent. He believes that if knowledge of
this agreement reaches Quirino, it will precipitate a declaration of
martial law.
The elimination of Magsaysay would result
in serious danger to the Philippines, and any attempt by Quirino
to arrest opposition leaders might precipitate a coup d'etat or a
civil war.
Comment: Relations between Magsaysay
and Quirino have been strained by Magsaysay's presidential aspi-
rations.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Comment on Iraq's political crisis
The appointment on 23 November of the
pro-British Iraqi Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Nur al-Din
Mahmud, as Prime Minister will probably not bring an end to
Iraq's political crisis. The general's control of the army will
enable him to maintain internal order, but since he is apparently
little interested in politics and has no platform, his appointment
will hardly satisfy the popular demand for political and economic
reforms. Moreover, his appointment as Chief of Staff in July
1951 aroused strong opposition because he is a Kurd, and because
of his alleged mismanagement of the Palestinian war.
The imposition of martial law in Baghdad,
the suspension of the press and the dissolution of political parties
will not halt the unrest, which springs from the opposition to pro-
jected plans for the forthcoming elections. Aroused public sentiment
puts greater pressure on Iraq's governing classes to grant sorely
needed reforms. It also creates an unfavorable atmosphere for
renewal of the Anglo-Iraqi Treaty, for agreements with foreign oil
companies, and for bringing Iraq into MEDO.
7. Foreign Minister states Israel's position on repatriation of Arab
� refugees
Foreign Minister Sharett told the American
Embassy that Israel's position on repatriation
of Arab refugees is firmly fixed, that no use-
ful purpose would be served by increasing the
number of Arabs now in Israel and that solution of the problem lies
in "resettlement and compensation." Sharett added that Israel has no
plans for payment of compensation. It does not even know where it
will get funds to pay the recently unblocked Arab accounts.
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Comment: Israel's financial plight is
acute; nevertheless, its unwillingness to accept the return of any
ol the 880,000 refugees and its insistence that it has no funds for
Arab repayments again underscores the improbability of any settle-
ment between Israel and the Arabs.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Increased anti-church activity anticipated in East Germany:
American officials in Berlin are inclined
to agree with Bishop Dibelius that the
probable consequences of the cancellation
of the intended visit to Moscow will be a
stepped-up Communist campaign against the Protestant church in
East Germany. The East German Communists may take the with-
drawal of the invitation as a cue for the "quiet implementation" of
anti-church measures already in the making.
Dibelius' recent vigorous denunciation of
the East German regime may have been the immediate cause of
Moscow's decision, but the realization that Dibelius is not so easily
exploited as such churchmen as Niemoeller may also have been a
factor.
Comment: While further harassment of the
church in East Germany is expected, the Communist need to develop
broad all-German opposition to Bonn policies will probably govern
the timing of any new measures.
9. Pillars fate in doubt in forthcoming Assembly debates:
The American Embassy in Paris expects
the National Assembly debates of 2 and
4 December on general fiscal and foreign
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policies respectively to be a real test for Premier Pinars over-all
program.
Despite warnings that Pinay is "very close
to being overthrown," the Embassy is reassured by the absence of
real interest among opposition elements in provoking a crisis, prob-
ably because they cannot conceive of a feasible political realignment.
Comment: Pinay's chances of surviving next
week's test votes are only fair. -He will probably be in greatest dan-
ger in the vote on the over-all budget bill, when his insistence on
including unpopular fiscal reform proposals will run the risk of irre-
sponsible Peasant Party and Gaullist opposition.
10. Italy seeks approval to ship embargoed ball bearings to Poland:
The Italian Foreign Ministry has instructed
its COCOM delegate to request exception
for List I ball bearings exports to Poland
amounting to $450,000. Rome is convinced
refusalos pt e ball bearings will result in a drastic reduction
of trade with Poland. Imports of Polish coal the most important
item of Italo-Polish trade, are already running at only 62. 5 percent
of last year's rate.
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The Italians argue further that most of the
bearings on order are for equipment previottisly purchased in Itply
and not of great strategic importance, and that it is desirable to make
the Poles dependent on Italy for maintenance, items,
Comment: Italy is probably under pressure
to make at least partial shipment of the $900,000 Worth of List' I bearings
on order from Poland. On September 24, Italy promised to reduce this
order by $220,000, but has experienced trouble in finding alternate mar-
kets because of recent British and French import restrictions.
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The decline in Italy's imports of Polish
coal is attributable to the high price of the coal rather than to
Italy's failure to export bearings.
Nladrid ready to speed conclusion of US base rights agreement:
Foreign Minister Artajo indicated to
Ambassador MacVeagh on 19 Novem-
ber that he would authorize the Spanish
military experts to bring the technical
spects of the US-Spanish base rights negotiations to a speedy
conclusion. His past reluctance to order this decisive step was
apparently overcome by MacVea,gh's formal assurances that
American requirements for peacetime facilities would be held
to a minimum.
Comment: Franco is known to oppose
the type of peacetime arrangements obtained by the United States
in Morocco and the Azores. Artajo had postponed this decision
Largely because of the erroneous belief, which he held until his
19 November interview with MacVeagh, that payment of the
$125,000,000 earmarked for Spain could be authorized prior to
conclusion of the base rights agreement.
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