CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692623
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 24, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/08 C6-2692623
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SEC Y INFORMATION
24 April 1952
Copy No.
52
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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3.5(c)
1 3.5(c)
3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Drastic Soviet measures against EDC predicted (page 3).
2. France seeks Soviet agrgment on new ambassador (page 3).
3. Orbit trade reprisals against Italy feared (page 4).
SOVIET UNION
4. Large Soviet chemical plant starts production (page 4).
FAR EAST
5.
6.
Bao Dal disturbed over government's lack of progress (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. German Bishop believes Communists would accept a neutral
Germany (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Drastic Soviet measures against EDC predicted:
3.5(c)
who may intend that 3.3(h)(2)
his remarks be transmitted to Westerngovern-
ments, states that the USSR will take drastic
steps to prevent the development of the European
Defense Community. he Soviet measures, which
may be expected as soon as the EDC agreement is ratified by either the
French or German parliament, will include an appeal to the International
Court of Justice and a "total" blockade of Berlin.
Comment: American officials in Bonn are con-
cerned over a possible resort to last-minute scare tactics on the part of
the USSR to block the integration of Germany with the West.
A sharper and more urgent tone regarding a
German peace treaty recently has emanated from the Soviet-controlled
press of East Germany. Arguments and appeals have attempted to
incite the Germans to overt action, such as mass demonstrations and
strikes, aimed at preventing conclusion of the contractual agreements.
2. France seeks Soviet agr4ment on new ambassador:
3.3(h)(2)
whether the USSR would accept Louis joxe
as the new Ambassador to Moscow. Joxe is
now Director General of
Cultural Relations in the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs.
the request
3.3(h)(2)
would be considered,
then expressed the view that
it was important
to facilitate the "search for compromise solutions" rather than be dis-
couraged over the present world situation.
Despite
"the war of travel
restrictions" he promised to support
request for permis-
3.3(h)(2)
sion to travel in Central Asia.
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3.5(c)
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3.5(c)
Comment: Ioxe, a career diplomat, was a
member of the first French Mission to the Soviet Union in 1924. He
Is one of General de Gaulle's few personal friends, and, although he
served as secretary on the general's National Committee for Liberation
In 1943 and 1944, his present political affiliation is unknown.
3. Orbit trade reprisals against Italy feared:
merican Embassy officials in Rome believe 3.3(h)(2)
hat the Orbit will take serious retaliatory
easures if two pending trade deals between
taly and the Soviet Orbit are cancelled because
f the Battle Act. One involves the shipment
f 800,000 dollars worth of rolling mill parts
o Poland in return for 15 million dollars worth
I coal; the second provides for shipment to
Czechoslovakia of 1,440 000 dollars worth of "category B" ball bearings,
a non-strategic size.
Italy, which badly needs coal, fears that can-
cellation of the rolling mill shipment would bring Polish retaliation and
hence force it to expend dollars for US coal.
Comment: Poland's apparent eagerness to
dispose of its coal surplus, even at some disadvantage, was shown in
recent transactions with Scandinavia. Thus it would appear unlikely
that Poland would undertake serious retaliation if Italy failed to provide
the rolling mill parts.
SOVIET UNION
4. Large Soviet chemical plant starts production:
3.3(h)(2)
the Kirovakan Electrochemical
Combine in Soviet Armenia advised the Chief
Directorate for the Sale of Chemical Products
In Moscow that ammonium nitrate shipments
werb made on 26 March to the Ministries of State Farms and Agriculture.
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3.3(h)(2)
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3.5(c)
Comment: This is the first evidence of production
in the new synthetic ammonia plant, which has an annual estimated capacity
of 57,000 metric tons or eight percent of the total Soviet production in 1951.
This basic chemical is used in large quantities
by the metallurgical, fertilizer, and explosives industries. The plant
may also produce heavy water, a by-product in production of hydrogen
for ammonia, since the necessary auxiliary equipment was installed over
two years ago.
FAR EAST
3.3(
h)(2)
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6. Bao Dai disturbed over government's lack of progress:
3.5(c)
In an interview with American Minister Heath, 3.3(h)(2)
Bao Dai pointed out the uselessness of attempt-
ing to form a more representative government
until the actions of the local French regime
make Vietnamese independence a reality. He deplored French meddling
In Vietnam Government affairs and described as "intolerable" disregard
of Vietnamese laws, notably tax legislation, by French citizens.
Heath comments that Bao Dai is partially to
blame for the weak Vietnamese Government in that he has not provided
energetic leadership.
Comment: The Vietnam Government is still
unable to attract the popular support necessary to counter the Viet Minh's
appeal. The French have deplored to American officials Bao Dal's
inertia, but there is evidence that they have not assiduously tried to
arouse him to action.
The new French diplomatic counsellor in Saigon
states that Resident Minister Letourneau intends to replace "old colonialist"
officials with men not previously associated with Indochina.
The French have been committed since early
1947 to the formation of a genuinely Vietnamese Government, but the
proposed replacement of the "old colonials" in Indochina has not
materialized.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. German Bishop believes Communists would accept a neutral Germany:
American officials in Berlin believe that the
recent proposal of Evangelical Bishop Dibelius
for all-German elections to be supervised by
the Evangelical and Catholic Churches is
primarily a maneuver to generate pressure for German unification and
for a four-power conference.
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3.3(h)(2)
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Dibelius, who is the head of the all-German
Evangelical Church, is alarmed at the thought of a permanent split of
Germany, which would mean the division of German Protestantism. He
tends to believe that the Communists would agree to a unified, neutralized
Germany. He also reportedly feels that the West, the United States in
particular, is not sincerely interested in Germany's unification.
Catholic circles give the impression that their
church considers the proposal naive and will have nothing to do with it.
Comment: Most West Germans believe that
unification with East Germany will be almost impossible to achieve under
present conditions. They resent, however, any western action which
would preclude unity, and are concerned over the increasing Allied in-
sistence on integration.
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