CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692621
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 16, 1952

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'111.4 I OF
ITY INFORMATION
16 April 1952
Copy No.5 2
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN ...����""
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS tihn
NEXT REVIEW DATE�
AUTH: HR 70.
DATE112.41 REVIEWED:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECUIUY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
Cominform meeting
held near Warsaw (page 3).
3.3(h)(2)
SOVIET
UNION
2.
Construction work opposite Sakhalin receiving increased attention
(page 3).
FAR EAST
3.
Viet Minh division survives concentrated French assault (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4.
Future of Kashmir negotiations still undecided (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5.
Shah still unwilling to remove Prime Minister Mossadeq (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6.
Dismissed Rumanian Finance Minister linked to ''Right deviation"
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7.
Italians call their Trieste proposals conciliatory (page 7).
LA TIN A MERICA
8.
American Embassy predicts copper strike in Chile (page 7
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1. Cominform meeting
GENERAL
held near Warsaw:
3.3(h)(2)
The Iranian Minister in Warsaw has informed
his government that Malenkov arrived in Warsaw
on 5 April to take part in a meeting of the Comin-
form outside the city.
Comment:
No important Satellite political leaders are known to have been
absent fiom their countries during this period. However, Pietro Secchia,
the Italian representative to the lune 1948 Cominform meeting, departed
for Warsaw on 6 April.
The French Government Press Agency reported
on 15 March that Communist circles in London expected a Cominform
meeting to be held in mid-March near Warsaw and to be presided over
by Malenkov.
The purpose of such a meeting at this time
would probably be to set forth the party line in light of the latest Soviet
proposals concerning Germany and the current peace offensive.
There has been no known Cominform meeting
since November 1949. The main function of the Cominform has apparently
become one of publishing a journal setting forth the Soviet foreign propa-
ganda line.
SOVIET UNION
2. Construction work opposite Sakhalin receiving increased attention:
req es
An official of the Ministry of Railroad Trans-
portation on Cape Lazareva asked authorization
for 623,000 hours of overtime for construction
work during the first quarter of 1952. This
een su mitted to Moscow twice previously.
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Comment: The overtime planned for
construction work is consistent with other indications that about 4,000
workers are employed in the construction activities of the Ministry of
Railroad Transportation at Cape Lazareva. This estimate is based
on a 60-hour week, which would require 12 hours overtime per worker. Other
construction organizations are also employed at this site.
The large influx of workers to Cape Lazareva,
which started in 1951, included engineers and technicians. The continued
recruitment of labor and the tone of the message suggest that high priority
is being attached to the construction project, which may include a rail and
road connection between Sakhalin and the mainland.
FAR EAST
3. Wet Minh division survives concentrated French assault:
The Assistant US Army Attache in Hanoi
reports that the Viet Minh 320th Division,
which has been the target of a major clearing
operation by the bulk of French mobile ground
forces and aircraft in Tonkin over the past several weeks, is still in
"fairly good condition." A new operation against this division is scheduled
to start soon.
Comment: As late as 13 April, American
officials in Saigon were led to believe, on the basis of casualty figures
supplied by the French Army, that "the 320th's capabilities as an entire
unit have been reduced to practically zero for several months to come."
Reports from French sources on this campaign
follow a previously noted pattern -- highly optimistic and misleading
claims during the progress of an operation, followed by far more moderate
estimates of the significance of the concluded operation.
3.3(h)(2)
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Future of Kashmir negotiations still undecided:
The Pakistani Government has informed 3.3(h)(2)
United Nations Representative Graham that
it desires to see his full report on the Kashmir
situation before committing itself to continuing
negotiations. The government also desires
clarification of the part to be played in the
negotiations by Admiral Nimitz, plebiscite
administrator -designate.
Comment: The Pakistani Government can do
little to influence decisions in its favor except
to display belligerency or hesitancy from time
to time. It cannot long refuse to participate in further discussions without
endangering its prestige and security, and it may be expected to acquiesce
in the relatively near future.
The Indian Government is not likely to reverse
its earlier agreement to the resumption of talks. It has left itself an
avenue of escape, however, by raising the possibility of delaying the
eventual plebiscite by refusing to apppint Admiral Nimitz as plebiscite
administrator on the grounds that his impartiality would be open to question.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Shah still unwilling to remove Prime Minister Mossadeq:
Removal of the Mossadeq government, the Sha13(h)(2)
told the American Ambassador on 13 April,
might come about by its own resignation, by
Majlis action, or by intervention of the Crown.
He added, however, that the time was not yet ripe for the Crown to act.
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The Shah said that the present government's
popularity was decreasing while his was increasing, and predicted that
Mossadeq would retire when his government was thoroughly discredited.
He hoped that it would be replaced by one more friendly toward the West
and that the United States would then assist Iran.
Comment: Mossadeq has been meeting with
the newly-elected Majlis deputies to explain his economic and financial
program and learn their reactions. In contrast, the Shah recently re-
fused to advise a group of deputies who called for instructions.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Dismissed Rumanian Finance Minister linked to "Right deviation":
The dismissal of Rumanian Finance Minister
Vasile Luca last month may have been due to
his lack of vigilance against a "Right op ortunist
cites a subsequent
article in the Cominform journal by R �f�OTttburo member Miron
Constantinescu, which asserted that a "deviation from the party line" had
enabled hostile elements to infiltrate agencies of the Ministry of Finance.
The January currency reform dealt these hostile elements a "crushing
blow," according to Constantinescu, and began the liquidation of this
"deviation."
Although Constantinescu made no direct refer-
ence to Luca, feels that his remarks imply that the
latter was dismissed for failure to combat the "hostile elements" who had
infiltrated his Ministry.
Comment: Recent press references which
credit Party Secretary-General Gheorghiu-Dej with initiating the January
currency reform lend credence to the belief that Luca's dismissal mayhave
been connected with a split in top Communist leadership. Although Luca,
who with Ana Pauker is considered a "Moscow Communist," still retains
his position as Vice Premier, the fact that his former ministry is under
attack might foreshadow further action against him.
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WESTERN EUROPE
Italians call their Trieste proposals conciliatory:
/Italy's proposals
Ffor a share in Zone A's administration repre-
sent a' 'notable" toward conciliation, and
that in making them Italy has tried to avoid giving Yugoslavia a pretext
for retaliatory action.
the American and
British representatives believe that the Italian proposals would deprive the
military commander of Zone A of all real authority.
Comment: Because Italian public opinion is
becoming increasingly restive about the Trieste problem, the De Gasperi
government fears a serious loss of prestige on the eve of next month's
local elections.
The Italians may therefore be expected to press
for their maximum objectives, which call for administration of all civil
offices in Zone A, including control of the police, subject only to the over-
all authority of the zone commander.
LA TIN AMERICA
8. American Embassy predicts copper strike in Chile:
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With regard to the copper strike threatened 3.3(h)(2)
for 25 April in Chile, an Anaconda official has
stated that the slightest increase in operating
costs would force his company to shut down the
already marginal operation at Portrerillos, and would put the larger but
more economical operation at Chuquicamata in the red. He adds that
the company can increase wages only if it receives a more favorable ex-
change rate.
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The US Embassy comments that "the uncompro-
raising position of management, when coupled with the equally uncompromis-
ing position of copper labor," makes an industry-wide copper strike inevitable
unless the Chilean Government agrees to issue a new copper exchange decree.
This appears unlikely, since a similar decree was declared unconstitutional
last year.
Comment: The president of the Chilean Copper
Workers Confederation earlier this month regarded a copper strike at the
Anaconda and Braden mines as inevitable. Anaconda's Chuquicamata and
Portrerillos mines produced about 160,000 and 40,000 metric tons respectively
in 1951.
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