CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692616
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 2, 1952

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2 April 1952
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� CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. French officials in Berlin analyze USSR's German peace treaty
proposal (page 3).
FAR EAST
20. Viet Minh use 105-mm guns (page 4).
3. Comment on new Indonesian Defense Minister page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
� 4. Afghanistan plans to proceed with oil explorations near Soviet
border (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. � Clarification of Western defense objectives in the Middle East
urged (page 5).
6. Nationalist-incited unrest reported to be increasing in Morocco
(page 6).
7. Resignations to bring Greek Cabinet reshuffle (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslav relations with Greece reportedly improved (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. French non-Communist labor leaders adopt wait-and-see attitude
toward Pinay (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. French officials in Berlin analyze USSR's German peace treaty proposal:
Oie 10 March Soviet
proposal for a German peace treaty repre-
sented a serious attempt to reach an agree-
ment and that failure to do so would cause the
USSR to take extreme measures.
Among the measures reportedly being studied
by the USSR "in case of rupture" are the blockade of Berlin, withdrawal
from the United Nations and creation of a "counter-UN," establishment
of an East German army, creation of an "eastern NATO," and revision of
strategic troop dispositions. Such measures reportedly would be put into
effect within a few months, the time limit being the American presidential
elections.
Comment: There are no indications that the USSR
is willing to reach a German settlement on anything but its own terms.
The creation of an "eastern NATO" has virtually been established through
the Soviet policy of aiding in the military buildup of the Satellites. There
is already the nucleus of an East German army which will probably be
expanded, with or without .a German peace treaty.
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FAR EAST
2. Viet Minh use 105-mm guns:
The advance headquarters of Viet Minh forces
in the Hoabinh area reported to the Viet Minh
general headquarters on 23 February that "our
105-mm and 75-mm artillery" shelled French
units.
Comment: The use of 75-mm artillery by the
Vipi. Minh and the receipt from China of 105-mm guns have been confirmed
This is the first time that the use of 105's has been
credibly reported by any source, including French Intelligence.
3. Comment on new Indonesian Defense Minister:
The new Indonesian Cabinet, which was an-
nounced on 1 April, appears to differ from its predecessor primarily in
the presence of the Sultan of Jogjakarta as Minister of Defense. The Sultan
is a non-party strongman and one of the most popular political figures in
Indonesia. He allegedly refused to serve in the last government because,
while serving in previous ministerial posts, he was prohibited from adopt-
ing forceful measures to suppress widespread lawlessness -- the country's
major internal problem. He presumably would not have accepted the
Defense portfolio without promises of non-interference in a "get tough"
policy aimed at restoring internal security.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Afghanistan plans to proceed with oil explorations near Soviet border:
The Afghan Minister of Mines on 20 March
informed the French Ambassador in Kabul that
his government was fully aware of political
complications which might arise from the
exploitation of oil deposits in northern Afghan-
istan c lose to the Soviet border. The government planned to avoid them
for the moment by prospecting only in areas at least fifty kilometers
from the frontier.
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The Minister remarked that, if oil resources
were successfully exploited, the Afghan Government would establish a
national development company with purely Afghan capital. Its primary
function would be to supply the 30,000 to 40,000 tons of oil used in the
country annually. If surplus oil were produced, it would be sold to any
country desiring it, though much of it would have to be exported to the
Soviet Union because of geographical considerations.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Clarification of Western defense objectives in the Middle East urged:
The United States, Britain, France, and
Turkey must clarify their objectives in the
Middle East, according to the American Am-
bassador in Baghdad. He points out that
Iraq may soon raise the question of Britain's future right to use two air
bases in Iraq, and that it is therefore advisable for the West to have
"some answers" available. He believes that the Iraqi situation depends
upon future developments in Egypt..
The government in Baghdad favors an inter-
national plan in preference to a continuation of the Anglo-Iraqi treaty
relationship to safeguard Iraq's security. The Ambassador believes
that the Iraqis may even insist upon a plan devised by the Middle East-
ern nations, such as the Arab Collective Security Pact.
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6. Nationalist-incited unrest reported to be increasing in Morocco:
unrest among the natives is rapidly
increasing and that nationalists are spreading
both anti-French and anti-American propaganda.
Comment: Recent events in Tunisia have
added to the irritation of the Moroccan natives, who are already uneasy
over the friction between the Sultan and the Resident General. Younger
elements of the nationalist parties are increasingly loath to accept the
advice of their moderate leaders and are urging more active resistance.
This reported unrest increases the likelihood of
disturbances in the French Protectorate such as occurred in the Tangier
International Zone on 30 March.
7. Resignations to bring Greek Cabinet reshuffle:
The recent resignations of the Greek Ministers
of Press and Coordination, both leaders of the
leftist EPEK Party, have raised to four the
number of ministries now vacant, and an ex-
ensive cabinet reshuffle is in progress.
Meanwhile, Liberal spokesmen have again
urged the American Embassy to persuade opposition leader Papagos to
cooperate in a "government of national unity" for six months, after which
elections would be held if the coalition failed.
Comment: These latest resignations, over
the execution of four Communist leaders on 30 March, have considerably
weakened the coalition government by lessening EPEK representation.
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Latest reports indicate that the Liberals will continue to hold the key post
of Defense Minister, temporarily filled by Acting Prime Minister Venizelos,
while EPEK will retain the Ministry of Coordination.
There is no indication that Papagos is any more
willing at present to cooperate with the Liberal-EPEK coalition than he
has been in the past.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslav relations with Greece reportedly improved:
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Comment: The improvement in relations may
be more apparent than real. The US Charge in Belgrade suggested re-
cently that the Yugoslays may be attempting to create the impression that
a rapport with Greece had been reached in order to arouse Italian concern
over Albania and counterbalance Italy's diplomatic offensive in the Adriatic.
The Macedonian issue, however, remains a serious point of difference
between Yugoslavia and Greece.
WESTERN EUROPE
2)
French non-Communist labor leaders adopt wait-and-see attitude toward Pinayz
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If French Premier Pinay can halt inflation and
obtain the effective cooperation of management
in his price and tax program, the national
leadership of the Socialist-oriented Force
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Ouvriere will not actively oppose the new government. The leaders of
this labor organization prefer a strong right-wing government to the un-
stable coalitions of recent years, provided labor's interests are notfurther
restricted. They are apprehensive, however, that Pinay is under the
influence of conservative elements formerly associated with Vichy, and
charge that he has an aversion to current long-range economic plans.
Comment: The Socialist Party had hoped to
rebuild a strong labor following based on the Force Ouvriere -- one of the
two principal but relatively weak non-Communist labor organizations --
by actively opposing the Pinay government.
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