CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/03/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692615
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 30, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
30 March 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 21
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 7C
; DEC.;LASS:FED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: 13 $
NExT REVI.F.':W Li, FE:
AUTH: HR
DATE.1147 _17 P, EVil
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Communists report BW attacks in South China (page 3).
2. Chinese aid to the Viet Minh increased (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Greek Government split over issue of condemned Communists (page 4).
4. France may soon face Security Council discussion on Tunisian policy
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Allied authorities oppose joint Trieste administration with Italy (page 5).
6. Withdrawal from Indochina foreseen as French political issue (page 6).
7,, Spain favors Portuguese participation in military talks with United
States (page 7).
8. New Soviet election proposals for Germany held possible (page 7).
LA TIN AMERICA
9. Bolivia considers lower price in new tin negotiations (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Communists report BW attacks in South China:
Officials of the Telegraph Bureau at the city
of Chiehyang near the southeast China coast
have reported to their superiors that two
enemy planes "released poisonous germs"
there on 22 March. The officials declared
that "cholera, typhus, and cerebral meningitis" germs were dropped and
urged that since local medical facilities were inadequate, preventive
medicines for these diseases, as well as for plague, be sent immediately.
Comment: Peiping has previously accused the
United States of BW attacks in Korea, Manchuria, and North China. The
allegation of an attack in South China came from minor officials and has
not yet been picked up in Peiping's propaganda.
2. Chinese aid to the Viet Minh increased:
in Indochina states
that Chinese Communist aid to the Viet Minh
has greatly increased since September 1951;
a total of 4,000 tons of materiel was supplied
during the last quarter of that year. He cites as proof of increased assist-
ance the recent use by the Viet Minh of light antiaircraft guns, 75-mm
artillery and flame throwers. He says that Soviet advisers are present in
undetermined numbers.
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The official points out that no Chinese units
have been identified in action in Tonkin nor is there any evidence that
Chinese troops have been integrated into Viet Minh formations. There
are, however, 1,800 to 2,000 Chinese technical and administrative ad-
visers in Tonkin serving in units down to the regimental level.
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Comment: While the use of 75-mm artillery
by the Viet Minh has been established, there have been no previous credible
reports that the Viet Minh possesses or has employed antiaircraft guns or
flame throwers.
This is the first time
reported the presence of Soviet advisers in Indochina.
Although up to 15,000 Chinese technical per-
sonnel have been frequently reported in Tonkin during the past six months,
has never estimated the number above 5,000.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Greek Government split over issue of condemned Communists:
Greek government leaders are split over the
policy to be adopted in the case of the Com-
munists recently condemned to death for
espionage. Their sentences are now under
review by the Board of Pardons, and Acting Prime Minister Venizelos
has informed the American Ambassador that he is determined to carry out
the Board's recommendation. Prime Minister Plastiras, however, who
formerly favored executing the Communists, is now reportedly seeking to
prevent the executions or at least to limit them to the less prominent
Communists.
Comment: Left wing leaders of Plastiras'
party have threatened to bolt and thus cause the government's fall, if the
major Communists are executed, The opposition, on the other hand, has
already attacked the government for leniency in releasing political pris-
oners and might well bring about its fall if the sentences are commuted.
In view of the consequences involved, government leaders will probably
�choose a solution such as that advocated by Plastiras or place the final
responsibility for a decisiqn on the King. Even these maneuvers may be
unsuccessful in keeping the government in power.
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4. France may soon face Security Council discussion on Tunisian policy:
According to the Pakistani representative on
the UN Security Council, the Arab-Asian bloc
has definitely decided to raise the question of
France's Tunisian policy, possibly on 2 April.
The French UN delegates are relying heavily
on the "new situation" following the Bey's capitulation, which they estimate
will be at its optimum for the next few days, and are not now inclined to
resist an early session of the Council.
Comment: At present the Arab-Asian bloc is
confident it can muster at least six of the seven votes needed to place the
issue on the Security Council agenda.
France's success in forcing the Bey to appoint
a new cabinet may temporarily relieve the situation in Tunisia, but prob-
ably will increase international criticism of France's methods and policy
there.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Allied authorities oppose joint Trieste administration with Italy:
The British Commander in Chief and the
American and British Political Advisers in
Trieste believe that Italian participation in the
Anglo-American administration and military
occupa of Zone would directly involve the United States and Britain
in every Italo-Yugoslav dispute over the Free Territory. They point out
that such participation would facilitate Italian control of the police and
create a situation inimical to the maintenance of law and order whenever
there was disagreement on policies.
As an alternative they suggest the withdrawal
of all Allied forces from Zone A. While this suggestion would not satisfy
Italy, it would almost certainly make permanent the present boundary be-
tween the two zones.
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Comment: The Italians probably hope to use
joint participation as a wedge for eventually taking over the entire military
as well as civil administration of Zone A.
Yugoslavia would undoubtedly look upon Italy's
participation in the Allied administration of Zone A as "carte blanche" to
consolidate its hold on Zone B.
6. Withdrawal from Indochina foreseen as French political issue:
The US Ambassador in Paris reports the con-
sensus of various party leaders that the Pinay
government will be succeeded in the late summer
or early fall by a coalition including the Social-
ists and possibly the De Gaullists as a result of a popular reaction against
Pinar s eventual failure to solve France's financial difficulties.
The Ambassador also reports wide agreement
that Indochina may soon re-emerge as a major internal political issue. He
cites the prediction of a Radical Socialist leader that unless increased
American assistance were forthcoming, withdrawal from Indochina would
become a rallying point for the new coalition.
Comment: In view of the Pinay government's
refusal to increase taxes to meet France's major commitments, there
will be steady pressure for additional American aid not only to maintain
the military position in Indochina but to help stabilize the economic and
political situation at home. Public sentiment is also likely to prefer with-
drawal to further financial sacrifices.
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7. Spain favors Portuguese participation in military talks with United States:
The Chief of the Spanish High General Staff has
told the Portuguese Ambassador in Madrid that
Portugal should be included in American-Spanish
military negotiations in order that a trilateral
pact, rather than the intended bilateral agree-
ment, can e arrange Another Spanish General Staff officer remarked
that Franco himself held a similar opinion. The officer called attention,
however, to the strong resistance such a tripartite pact would cause in
France, Britain, and the United States.
The same officer reiterated Spain's wish to
avoid membership in NATO, as well as any commitments to the United
States beyond the immediate defense of the Iberian peninsula.
Comment: Portugal has consistently maintained
that considerations of Iberian defense have a higher priority than its commit-
ments under NATO to western European defense as a whole. It undoubtedly
feels that, as US-Spanish military arrangements will directly affect Portu-
guese security interests, Portugal should have a voice in these .arrangements.
8. New Soviet election proposals for Germany held possible:
In the opinion of the High Commissioner's
office in Berlin, the Allied note of 25 March
may encourage the Soviet Union to advance
bolder proposals for free all-German elections,
since the note seems to stress the importance of German integration with
the West over German unity. Such Soviet proposals might offer more
liberal inspection and election procedures involving the participation of the
Allied powers and other "interested nations,"
A new Soviet offer might be difficult for the
Allies to turn down without arousing suspicions that they will insist on
integration before discussing any compromise election offer, no matter
how reasonable.
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Comment: A modified Soviet election offer
might find fairly wide acceptance in West Germany. The initial reaction
of both the German Party and the Social Democratic Party to the Allied
note was that it went too far in emphasizing Western integration and not
far enough in stressing unity.
Mayor Reuter of West Berlin believes that
the Soviet Union will make additional election concessions.
LA TIN AMERICA
9. Bolivia considers lower price in new tin negotiations:
Bolivian tin producers now in Washington in-
tend to propose a price of 1.39 dollars a
pound, c. I, f. New York, with the possibility
that this price will be reduced if it is not ac-
cepted by the United States. The Bolivian
Ambassador informed his Foreign Office that he had made no objection to
this proposal, in view of previous instructions authorizing him to indicate
that Bolivia would accept less than 1.50 dollars. He did, however, point
out the inadvisability of gradually lowering the price instead of making a
firm proposal.
Comment: There are indications that Bolivia
may be willing to accept a price onry�slightly higher than the 1.215
dollars a pound established for Malayan tin. The Bolivian Government
is extremely anxious to conclude an agreement, because it believes that
if its new efforts fail, it will be unable to continue to restrain anti-American
elements. Since Bolivia depends on tin for approximately 70 percent of
its foreign exchange earnings, the year-long delay in negotiations has
resulted in considerable economic hardship.
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