CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/03/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692614
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 28, 1952

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SECURI NFORMATION
28 March 1952
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
i I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHAis2GE.0 TO: TS. S C ezoof
NEXT REVIEW DATE,:
AUTH: HR 70-4
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOUTH ASIA
I. Afghan-Pakistani clash reported (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. British Joint Chiefs agree to War Office proposal for Gaza base
(page 3).
EASTERN EUROPE
3. Yugoslav Foreign Minister warns of approaching trouble in Balkans
(page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. France moves to terminate Soviet repatriation mission in Austria
(page 5).
5. East Germany may be planning military conscription (page 6).
6. West Germany reveals plans for troop build-up (page 6).
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SOUTH ASIA
1. Afghan-Pakistani clash reported:
The Pakistani Foreign Secretary has reported
that 3,000 Afghans unsuccessfully attacked a
Pakistani border post near Chaman, opposite
southern Afghanistan, on 24 March,
The American Embassy in Karachi notes that
a year ago similar skirmishes led to fairly large-scale Afghan and
Pakistani troop movements and created a tense situation which lasted
several months. The Embassy adds that the Pakistani Government is
now in a highly emotional state over the apparent "failure" of the Graham
mission on Kashmir, and that it may take "extreme action" against
Afghanistan. This could include fomenting a tribal insurrection against
the Afghan Government,
Comment: No other reports on the above
incident have been received.
Simultaneous Afghan and Indian pressures
have previously been exerted on Pakistan during periods of crisis in
United Nations consideration of the Kashmir question. To date, none
of these has had serious results.
It is unlikely that the Pakistani Government
would become seriously embroiled with the Afghans at a time when it is
deeply concerned over Kashmir and when it is making efforts to assume
a position of leadership in the Islamic world.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2, British Joint Chiefs agree to War Office proposal for Gaza base:
The British Joint Chiefs have adopted the
War Office recommendation regarding Britain's
future military plans for the Middle East, The
War Office proposals provide for Britain's
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acquisition, with Egyptian and Israeli consent, of a fifty-year lease on the
Gaza strip on the Palestine coast. The plans also require Egypt's agree-
ment to establish, with British assistance, base facilities in the Suez
Canal zone for use in the event of war.
The American Army Attache in London believes
that this plan, which would cost 100 million pounds and take ten years to
complete, may meet with opposition in the British Cabinet, particularly
from Mr. Churchill.
Comment: The establishment of a base in the
Gaza area has already been given consideration by the British as a possible
solution to the Anglo-Egyptian dispute over the Suez Canal base. Adoption
of the War Office recommendation may presage the gradual withdrawal of
the British forces from the Canal area in an effort to reach an agreement
with Egypt on this question.
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EASTERN EUROPE
3. Yugoslav Foreign Minister warns of approaching trouble in Balkans:
Foreign Minister Kardelj stated privately
in early March that he had received infor-
mation that "things would again flare up in
his area," that the situation was far more dangerous than the United
States believed.
Kardelj added that despite the adoption of a
more doctrinaire party policy, there is not the slightest intention on the
part of the Yugoslays to alter their present friendly policy towards the
West. He remarked that if proper circumstances presented themselves,
Yugoslavia would seriously consider joining the Western defense system.
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Comment: Marshal Tito in a recent public
statement remarked that the danger of Soviet aggression has decreased
during the past year. However, on the basis of recent Comm form
attention to the theme of popular resistance against Tito, Yugoslav leaders
may be anticipatiing an intensification of border pressures and subversive
activity within Yugoslavia.
Reports from the American Embassy in Belgrade
state that Yugoslav leaders fear a stiffening of United States policy towards
Yugoslavia. Hence, the prospect of a reduction in Western aid may be
responsible for Kardelj's expressed concern at this time over Soviet in-
tentions towards Yugoslavia.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. France moves to terminate Soviet repatriation mission in Austria:
The French Foreign Office has instructed its
Ambassador in Austria to inform the Soviet
High Commissioner that the permanent Soviet
repatriation mission in the French Zone of
Austria must be terminated on 1 June, and
that in the future only temporary missions "for definite and justifiable
purposes" will be authorized.
Comment: France has heretofore justified
the continuation of a permanent Soviet mission in its zone on the grounds
that expulsion would jeopardize the activities of its own repatriation
mission in Moscow.
American officials in Austria have long ob-
jected to the security problem created by the Soviet mission, and have
recently urged a direct appeal to Foreign Minister Schuman for its
termination. The permanent Soviet repatriation missions which were
in the American and British zones were expelled last year.
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5. East Germany may be planning military conscription:
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the East German
Socialist Unity Party Central Committee has
ordered that its propaganda line be changed to
eliminate everything directed against conscription
laws. On 15 March all anti-conscription posters were ordered removed.
The disappearance of these posters from the Soviet Sector of Berlin has
been confirmed.
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American officials in Berlin comment that one
obvious purpose of this action is to make East German propaganda con-
sistent with the Soviet peace treaty proposals. They suggest that the
action could also be in preparation for the introduction of conscription
laws in East Germany, after the Allied-West German contractual agree-
ments have been ratified. This would be in preparation for the expansion
of the East German paramilitary forces.
Comment: Reports of plans for the expansion
of the East German paramilitary police to form 24 understrenglh Soviet,
type divisions suggest that 44,000 to 68,000 additional men would have to
be recruited. The difficulty of obtaining volunteers for paramilitary
service increases the possibility of conscription. The present manpower
shortage may delay such an expansion until after the creation of an effec-
tive West German defense force.
6. West Germany reveals plans for troop build-up:
West German delegates at the European
Defense Community discussions in Paris
state that their government expects to have
180,000 men under arms within one year after
the EDC treaty comes into force. Three months later, the government
will have enough recruits to fill out its 400,000-man deferse contingent.
The delegates declare that the costs of this force in the first year will
amount to 2.8 billion dollars.
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The West German Government will seek
parliamentary approval of its defense proposals when it submits the
Defense Community treaty for ratification.
Comment: Allied observers have felt that
the German delegation would be inclined to overestimate both the speed
with which German units could be formed and the costs of these units.
Germany has agreed to provide Allied logistical
support to the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. This sum, added to the esti-
mated cost of the German force, exceeds the country's 2.7 billion dollar
defense contribution by 1.7 billion.
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