CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/03/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692608
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 14, 1952

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SEC INFORMATION
14 March 1952
Copy No. 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENTNO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. AC
DECLASS;VIE0
AVM: HR 70-2
NEXT' REVIEW DATE:
CLASS. CHANCED TO: -1...'; ' C
DATE.Witil ._ REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Poland to receive BW "samples" from Korea (page 3).
2. India asks Peiping to clarify intentions on Korean truce (page 3).
3. Britain fears French withdrawal from Indochina (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. British withdrawing recognition of nationalization principle in
Iranian Oil dispute (page 5).
5. Shah believes problem of US aid to Iran will be solved soon
(page 5).
6. British Ambassador sees no hope in current London approach to
Anglo-Egyptian dispute (page 6).
7. Defense Minister wants Libya to join Middle East Command
(page 6).
8. Program for Tunisian reforms to be submitted to French Cabinet
next week (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Possible surprise East German reply to UN Commission seen
(page 8).
10. Britain insists upon prohibiting German manufacture of magnetic
mines (page 8).
11. French Socialists may attempt to force British participation in
EDC (page 9).
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FAR EAST
1. Poland to receive BW "samples" from Korea:
3.3(h)(2)
The Polish Ambassador in Pyongyang informed
the Polish Mission in Peiping on 9 March that
he was to "receive samples of the fruit infected
by the typhus and cholera which the Americans
released." The Polish diplomat added that the
infected fruit would be taken to Peiping and should be forwarded to Warsaw
by courier.
Comment: The sending of such "concrete
evidence" to Warsaw will reinforce the already ominously heavy Commu-
nist propaganda barrage on the biological warfare theme.
It is probable that Pravda on 12 March was
alluding to similar "evidence" when it stated that United States denials of
the use of BW agents in Korea were repudiated by "concrete and docu-
mentary facts."
2. India asks Peiping to clarify intentions on Korean truce:
3.3(h)(2)
The Indian Ambassador in Peiping has been
instructed to inform Premier Chou En-lai that
the Government of India is "extremely disturbed"
over developments in Korea; Chinese charges
o 110 ogica war are, without supporting evidence and with a "general
emotional build-up," indicate that Peiping is unwilling to make an earnest
effort to achieve a truce.
The Ambassador Is to ask Chou to make clear
whether Peiping genuinely desires a Korean truce based on "reasonable
conditions."
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Comment: This direct approach reinforces
earlier indications that the Indian Government is increasingly suspicious
of China's intentions to dominate other Asian countries. It does not mean,
however, that Indian foreign policy is becoming pro-Western or that India
will abandon its strenuous efforts to maintain a friendly relationship with
� China.
Peiping's previous noncommittal replies to
Indian inquiries suggest that the Chinese will not clarify their intentions
in this case.
3. Britain fears French withdrawal from Indochina:
3.3(h)(2)
The American Embassy in London reports that
the British Foreign Office is preparing an
approach to the United States for an immediate
joint consideration of the position to be taken
In the event olOa French military withdrawal from Indochina. The Foreign
Office is disturbed by rumors that the French are already tentatively ne-
gotiating with Ho Chi Minh and by the possibility that present serious
domestic economic and political instability may prompt the French to
withdraw from Indochina as rapidly as circumstances permit. In the
British view, the previous tripartite discussions of Southeast Asian defense
have provided no solution for this particular contingency.
Comment: Since the tripartite Singapore
Conference in May 1951, the British Foreign Office has been urging the
United States to assume a more direct role in the defense of Southeast Asia.
While a minority in the French National As-
sembly favors a withdrawal from Indochina, the new Pinay government
and a large majority in Parliament have given every indication that they
intend to defer reconsideration of this issue for the immediate future while
various revenue-raising expedients are attempted.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. British withdrawing recognition of nationalization principle in Iranian
Oil dispute:
3.3(h)(2)
The British Charge in Tehran has been instructed
to present to the Iranian Foreign Minister, not
later than 15 March, a note stating that Britain
no longer recognizes the principle of nationali-
zation as applied to the oil industry.
The note points out that the British Government
had previously recognized this principle in an effort to obtain a settlement
of the oil dispute, but that since last summer's conditions no longer exist,
neither the government nor the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company are now bound
by the principle. According to the Charge, this note is just for the record
and to maintain Britain's position before the International Court of Justice.
Comment: The note on nationalization will
prejudice the present favorable atmosphere of the negotiations with the
International Bank for an interim settlement and may even cause the
Iranian Government to take further anti-British actions.
Other notes to be presented by the same deadline
protest the closing of British information and cultural centers in Iran, the
last-minute refusal of Iran to sign a civil air agreement with Britain, and
anti-British articles in the Iranian press.
5. Shah believes problem of US aid to Iran will be solved soon:
The Shah, in a conversation with General
Zimmerman, Chief of the US Military Mission,
said that the Mossadeq government will not be
in power much longer and that the problem of
the US Military Mission and of American military aid will be solved when
a new government takes over. He urged that the Mission continue
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6.
temporarily without a contract and emphasized the difficulties it would
face in returning if it left. The Shah added that he was disappointed by
the small amount of military aid given Iran because he thought its
strategic position should result in special consideration.
Comment: The Shah's belief that the govern-
ment will not remain in power may be inspired by Prime Minister
Mossadeq's recent statements that he intends to resign after the new
Majlis meets in April. However, Mossadeq continually vacillates on
the question of his resignation.
British Ambassador
Egyptian dispute:
sees no hope in current London approach to Anglo-
3.3(h)(2)
in Cairo, because they
to recognize Farouk as
stalemate.
Recent London drafts of a joint Anglo-Egyptian
declaration on the reopening of negotiations
"would not have the slightest chance" of suc-
cess, according to the British Ambassador
do not "take care of" the Sudan issue.
Comment: Continuing British unwillingness
KinTOTtlie Sudan would prolong the present
7. Defense Minister wants Libya to join Middle East Command:
The Libyan Defense Minister has expressed
his country's eagerness to participate in the
proposed Middle East Command. Libya's
strategic importance, he told the American
Minister, should make it an integral part of Middle East defenses; and
the fact that Libya's future lies in association with the United States
and the United Kingdom makes it ready to share in the support of free
nations.
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The Minister also discussed plans for the
Libyan defense force, saying that he looked to Britain for help in training
Libyan soldiers and to the United States for "assistance in some form."
Comment: Newly created Libya is not a member
of the Arab League, and is the only Arab country which has expressed a
positive desire to join the Command. While many Arab leaders have
privately shown interest in the MEC, none has dared to support the idea
in public for fear of antagonizing Egypt.
8. Program for Tunisian reforms to be submitted to French Cabinetnext week:
3.3(h)(2)
The Foreign Office expects to submitproposals
for reform in Tunisia to the French Cabinet
next week. The Foreign Minister reportedly
realizes that there is need for haste and that
e present impasse would be prejudicial to French
a continuation o
prestige.
Comment: Although the Foreign Office saw
no need for speed as recently as 22 February, the activity of the Arab-
Asian bloc in linging up support for a Security Council discussion of
Tunisian problems has made an early decision imperative.
3.3(h)(2)
Little likelihood exists that a "bold new program"
would be approved, since the Pinay Cabinet is not likely to antagonize the
increasing number of French rightists who are convinced that a forceful
approach is the only one suited to the Arab mentality.
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WESTERN EUROPE
9. Possible surprise East German reply to UN Commission seen:
10.
East Germany may at
the last minute accept the invitation to meet
with the UN commission on all-german elections
on 17 March.
Although recognizing that the Russians and
3.3(h)(2;
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East Germans have so far attacked the commission's legal right to pro-
ceed with an investigation of electoral conditions, the
East Germans might agree to preliminary talks in Berlin hoping to use the
UN group as a "good offices commission" to settle East and West German
differences on all-German elections.
Comment: The UN commission, which has so
far heard nothing but propaganda abuse from East Germany on this matter,
is reportedly prepared to receive a surprise East German acceptance
containing "sleepers and jokers."
Britain insists upon prohibiting German manufacture of magnetic mines:
3.3(h)(2)
Foreign Secretary Eden has asked the United
States to reconsider its rejection of the British
proposal to include magnetic and other types
of influence mines among the weapons Germany
is to be prohibited from manufacturing. Britain is principally concerned
at the danger of the USSR's overrunning Germany and obtaining facilities
for manufacturing weapons which are a matter of "life and death" to a
country dependent upon sea communications. Eden understands that
Sweden has already asked Germany to make influence mines.
According to Eden, neither Churchill nor
Defense Minister Alexander will accept anything less than the present
British proposal.
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Comment: The Allies had reached almost
complete agreement on German security controls, which include armament
restrictions, when Britain introduced a belated proposal to extend the
definition of guided missiles to include influence mines.
11. French Socialists may attempt to force British participation in EDC:
Guy Mollet, Secretary General of the French
Socialist Party, apparently plans to try to
force Britain to participate in the European
Defense Community. He has informed Ameri-
can officials in Paris that at the 22 March meeting with British Labor
Party representatives his party will publicly declare that Britain's
participation is essential for Socialist support of the EDC treaty.
The US Embassy in Paris infers that Mollet
intends to swing his party back to ratification of the treaty if the maneuver
fails, but it questions his ability to do so in view of basic Socialist oppo-
sition to the Defense Community.
Comment: Socialist support is essential for
French ratification of the European Defense Community, since dissident
middle-of-the-road deputies are numerous enough to give the Communists
and the Gaullists a majority against the measure.
Although a powerful element within the British
Labor Party favors committing British troops to the European Army to
prevent German domination, neither the Labor Party as a whole nor the
British Government is prepared to consider closer political association
with the Defense Community.
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