CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/03/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02692605
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: March 1, 1952

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1 March 1952
Copy No. 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO,
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ATE1244.1!41 .REVIEWE211
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEC INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. Soviet diplomat predicts early Korean armistice (Page 3).
2.
3. Eight airborne divisions reported in China (page 4).
4. Rumors of French-Viet Minh negotiations denied (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Communists implicated in East Pakistan demonstrations (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6,, Iranian Air Force officers implicated with Tudeh (page 5).
7. British military dubious about future of Suez Canal base (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French tactics on German security controls jeopardize accord
(page 6).
9. West Germans speed mobilization plans (page 7).
10. Belgium views French financial situation as critical (page 8).
11. Italian businessmen call for open stand on Moscow Economic
Conference (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Soviet diplomat predicts early Korean armistice
In discussing prospects for a Korean armistice,
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Zorin recently
remarked to the Swedish Ambassador that an
armistice agreement is not unlikely and "will
occur soon, e we h Ambassador remarked that in previous conver-
sations Zorin had depreciated chances of armistice agreement "because
the Americans didn't want it."
Comment: Although Soviet spokesmen have
previously expressed optimism regarding the outcome of the cease-fire
talks, Zorin's remark is the only recent expression of such a Soviet
attitude. This sanguine approach might be deemed particularly ap-
propriate in conversations with representatives of neutral nations. On
the other hand, Communist statements and propaganda continue to empha-
size obstacles to an agreement, such as the UN's alleged use of bacteri-
ological warfare.
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3. Eight airborne divisions reported in China:
the Chinese Communists have eight
airborne divisions. Two divisions are in
Manchuria, two in Kwangsi Province near
the Indochina border, and four in east and central China.
4. Rumors of French-Viet Minh negotiations denied:
French Foreign Office officials flatly deny that
France is considering negotrations with the
Viet Minh. There have been many reports in
Paris papers that Minister of Associated
States Letourneau, who has just completed a
survey mission in Indochina, had implied
such a policy change.
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The American Minister in Saigon reports that
Letourneau's comments, both public and private, showed no tendency to
consider such negotiations.
Comment: Letourneau is reported to have
stated that France would not refuse to negotiate with the Viet Minh, but
would not take the first steps.
While a minority of the non-Communist deputies
in the French National Assembly are convinced that France must face the
question of a withdrawal from Indochina, the Assembly voted overwhelming-
ly on 29 February in favor of the government's motion to carry on the war.
The American Military Attache in Paris believes
that the recent deterioration of the military situation in Indochina will soon
force the French Government to reconsider its policy.
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SOUTH ASIA
5. Communists implicated in East Pakistan demonstrations:
Communist connections with the East Pakistan
demonstrations which began 21 February are
proved by documents seized in local raids in
Dacca. Both West Pakistani and Indian Commu-
nists are implicated.
Four members of the East Bengal St ate Assembly
and five Communist professors were among
those arreste ccor mg to the American Consul in Dacca, the next
three days will probably decide whether or not the local government remains
in power.
. Comment: Recently the Pakistani-Prime Minister
told the Bengali-speaking East Pakistanis that Urdu, the language of West
Pakistan, would be the official language of the country. This touched off
a controversy which resulted in a general strike on 21 February and
Intermittent public demonstrations in Dacca, capital of East Pakistan,
during subsequent days. The situation is aggravated by the feeling of the
East Bengalis that the national government in Karachi ignores their culture
and interests.
While the local government may have difficulty
in maintaining itself, there is no question as to the central government's
ability to maintain its authority.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iranian Air Force officers implicated with Tudeh:
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a list oi 102 Tudeli' 3.3(h)(2)
suspects among Air Force personnel, including
16 junior officers. The documents implicating
these men were found in the house of an Air Force lieutenant, a Tudeh
member.
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Comment: In view of the ineffectiveness of
Iranian intelligence, it is probable that Tudeh penetration of the armed
for ama&somciwhat more progress
It is known that several of the government's
agencies, including the Ministries of Justice, Education and Post and
Telegraph, are heavily infiltrated.
7. British military dubious about future of Suez Canal base:
The British Ambassador in Cairo and the
British military authorities in the Canal zone
'are agreed that the cooperation of Egyptian
authorities and the friendship of the Egyptian
people, both considered necessary for the successful operation of the
British bases, do not now and probably never will again exist.
Comment: Until recently British military
authorities have held that the Suez Canal bases could be maintained even
in the face of considerable Egyptian opposition.
British plans for the defense of the Middle
East are still based on the transformation of the British base into a
Middle East Command base and the maintenance of British troops in
Egypt as part of the Allied force.
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8. French tactics on German security controls jeopardize accord:
French representatives in Bonn have reopened
the question of restricting West Germany's
arms-producing capacity, since they believe
that the controls to be established under the
European Defense Community are inadequate.
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The US *High Commissioner states that raising
this question again could jeopardize the progress made so far. Both he
and the British representative oppose consideration of capacity controls,
and desire to limit current discussions to the specific weapons to be barred.
Comment: Although the recent Foreign
Ministers' meetings produced a general solution to the West German arms
restriction problem, agreement was not reached on certain weapons cate-
gories which are now being discussed by the Allied High Commissioners.
Except for atomic, biological, and chemical weapons, no restrictions
were placed on arms-producing capacity.
9. West Germans speed mobilization plans:
�West Germany's embryonic defense ministry
is drafting preliminary plans for the conscription
of the 400,000 men who will make up Germany's
contribution to the European Defense Force.
The planning office, headed by Theodor Blank, is preparing a conscription
law similar to that of the United Staters -to present to Parliament immedi-
ately after ratification of the European Defense Community treaty by all
participating countries. Actual enactment of the legislation wouldrequire
another 60 days, but would not delay the voluntary recruitment of officers
and cadres.
The German contingents are expected to be
at full strength two years after the system is inaugurated.
German officials estimate with "moderate
pessimism" that the European Defense Community treaty will be in force
by autumn. Signature of the treaty is considered possible by the middle
or end of March, 'and it is hoped that the German contracts will be signed
in April. Government leaders do not expect the question of constitution-
ality of rearmament to delay mobilization.
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10. Belgium views French financial situation as critical:
Belgian Prime Minister van Houtte has stated
that Belgian government and business circles
are alarmed because the French financial
position is "visibly crumbling." Noting France's
pivotal position in NATO, he stressed that that country's "incapacity to
manage its economy" was damaging its defense effort.
As a result of the French debit position in the
European Payments Union, Belgium expects further French trade re-
strictions.
Comment: Pressure from intrenched speculative
interests and a deepening distrust of the franc are precipitating an early
economic collapse. The underlying causes of this trend are the highly
unfavorable foreign trade balance and the burdensome defense commit-
ments in, Europe and Indochina.
While some political compromise postponing
a showdown on revenues will probably permit replacement of the Faure
government by another middle-of-the-road coalition, this solution would
prevent realization of the 1952 military program.
The tightening French restrictions on EPU
imports will provide a major stimulus to the chain reaction of measures
by European countries against the trade liberalization program. This
trend may soon preclude the steady rise in European production essential
to meet rearmament goals.
11. Italian businessmen call for open stand on Moscow Economic Conference:
Certain Italian business interests want the
government to take an open stand on the Moscow
Economic Conference. So far the government
has officially ignored the conference and
discouraged attendance. Foreign Office officials now favor allowing
certain anti-Communists to attend so that they can refute Soviet pro-
paganda regarding the conference.
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Comment: The Italian Confederation of
Industry was invited to the Moscow conference several months ago. This
is the first information received regarding the attitude of Italian business
interests toward the conference.
In January Communist chief Togliatti opened
the Italian Communist drive in support of the conference with charges
� that the government's policy of curbing trade with Eastern Europe was
preventing solution of the problems of Southern Italy.
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