CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/07/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02685622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: July 6, 1952

Approved for Release: 2019/05/28 CO2685622
'*410P SECRET
SECURI NFORMATION
6 Suly 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
DOCUMENT NO Li 4
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. At'
D DECLASSIFIED
CLASS:CHANGED TO: I-B....1Lp_
NEXT REVIEW DATE- 1,..Arlig"
AUTH: HR 70
Office of Current Intelligence DATE: REVIEWER: 3.5(c)1
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.5(c)
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SEC INFORMATION
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3.5(c)
SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Comment on the South Korean political "compromise" (page 3).
2. China now accepting low grade rubber from Ceylon (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. American Ambassador comments on weak position of new Egyptian
cabinet (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Yugoslavia seen outmaneuvering Italy in Mediterranean (page 5).
5. Key West German Senate group supports Bonn-Paris treaties
(page 5).
6. French Government handicapped in anti-Communist campaign
(page 6).
7. Spain insists on defense aid in return for granting US bases
(page?).
* * * *
3.3(h)(2)
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FAR EAST
1. Comment on the South Korean political "compromise":
The action of the South Korean National
Assembly on 4 July in passing the "compromise" amendments to the
constitution will probably bring to an end the month and a half-old
political crisis between President Rhee and his opposition in the
National Assembly. Earlier in the week, the president had pre-
sented the Assembly with a virtual ultimatum that they must agree
to popular election of the president or face dissolution. The com-
promise, embodying also amendments diminishing the power of
the executive, represents a major shift in Rhee's position.
Although the immediate pressure is now
off both Rhee and his opposition, it is apparent that Rhee has lost
little ground. As a result of superior political organization on the
local level, he will continue as chief executive despite his protestations
of non-availability for the popular presidential election reportedly
set for 15 July. The president's political machine will in future
National Assembly elections enable his supporters to nullify con-
cessions made to the Assembly by electing a pro-Rhee majority.
Martial law and other pressures on opposition Assemblymen continue.
2. China now accepting low grade rubber from Ceylon:
3.3(h)(2)
the Polish
vessel Jednosc, which sailed from Colombo
on 3 July with 4,787 long tons of Ceylonese
rubber for Communist China,
nu' ons of inferior grade rubber, previously un-
acceptable to the Chinese Communists. The agent also verified another
report that the Chinese no longer required shippers to deliver
the full amounts specified in letters of credit, but were willing to
accept partial cargoes.
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Comment: The relaxation of specifications
by the Chinese buyers reflects Peiping's concern over the reduction
in China's rubber stockpile. Rubber imports from Ceylon, virtually
the only source of supply for China since late 1951, have so far this
year averaged less than 3,000 tons a month or about half the estimated
capacity of Chinese rubber products factories.
The Chinese Communists are also negotiat-
ing for supplies from Indonesia.
negotiations for the pruchase of 20,000 tons of
Indonesian rubber were well advanced.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
American Ambassador comments on weak position of new Egyptian
cabinet:
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
American Ambassador Caffery in Cairo 3.3(h)(2)
states that the new Egyptian Government of
Prime Minister Sirry Pasha will be under-
mined by the same factors that caused the
Of its predecessor and will probably not last long.
Caffery reiterates his conviction that because
of Britain's inaction on the Sudan, each government in Cairo finds
itself weaker than its predecessor. He warns that unless the Sudan
title is recognized, sooner or later the Wafd Party will be back in
power. King Farouk still hates the Wafd, Caffery says, but he would
rather have a Wafdist government than lose his throne.
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WESTERN EUROPE
4. Yugoslavia seen outmaneuvering Italy in Mediterranean:
3.3(h)(2)
a growing feeling among informed Italians
that Yugoslavia is seizing the diplomatic
initiative from Italy in the Mediterranean
area. This view is based on the recent visits
to Tito of Austrian Foreign Minister Gruber and British Mediterranean
Fleet Commander Lord Mountbatten, and the contacts betweenthe Greek,
Turkish, and Yugoslav general staffs.
The Italians believe that Belgrade's apparent
efforts to create a Balkan entente are aimed at gaining Yugoslav
entry into the Mediterranean defense system while simultaneously
minimizing Italy's role in the Atlantic alliance.
reports that these considerations have led to the conclusion that it is
time for Italy to negotiate with Yugoslavia over Trieste.
Comment: Belgrade's interest in the problems
of regional defense has grown perceptibly during the past year. The
Gruber visit to Tito and the development of closer relations with both
Greece and Turkey have been interpreted as part of Tito's answer to
increased Italian pressure for Trieste. There has as vet been no for-
mal contact among the Greek, Turkish, and Yugoslav general staffs.
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3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
5. Key West German Senate group supports Bonn-Paris treaties:
A leading Free Democrat in the West Germar3.3(h)(2)
state of Baden-Wuerttemberg says that
his state's Federal Senate delegation will
vote for the ratification of the contractual
agreement and he EDC ti4eaty. He believes that the Free Democrats
in the state cabinet will either compel the Senate delegation to sup-
port the treaties or will force the dissolution of the cabinet, in order
to replace the present state delegation in the Senate.
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Comment: Up to now, ratification of the
treaties, scheduled for September, has been endangered by Chancellor
Adenauer's minority position in the Senate. With the support of the
Baden-Wuerttemberg delegation, final ratification of the treaties is
practically assured.
If the Baden-Wuerttemberg cabinet should
be dissolved over the issue, any successor cabinet would be certain
to send a delegation which would support the treaties.
6. French Government handicapped in anti-Communist campaign:
The French Government intends to proceed 3.3(h)(2)
with its legal campaign against Communist
Party leaders, although a Justice Ministry
official admits that Duclos' release has
-
dealt the prosecution a severe blow. The most serious consequence
of the grand jury's verdict is that Duclos is now entitled to demand
return of the evidence seized when he was arrested, and at any future
trial his incriminating notebook would probably be barred as evidence.
At the same time, according to another of-
ficial source, the government was secretly relieved over Duclos'
release because he was seriously ill and his death would have pro-
vided the party with a real martyr.
Comment: The blow to the government's
case has been softened by the revelation that the chairman of the
grand jury which released Duclos was restored to his judicial func-
tions in 1944 by one of Duclos' present lawyers and was a signer
of the Stockholm Peace Petition.
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T.SECOP RET
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'119 �SEMET
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7. Spain insists on defense aid in return for granting US bases:
The Chief of the Spanish General Staff has 3.3(h)(2)
informed the United States Military Group
that before Spain grants the bases desired by
the United States, it will require a "statement
of principle" from the American Joint Chiefs of Staff that the United
States will provide "sufficient" defense material to offset Spain's con-
sequent increased vulnerability. Once this prerequisite were obtained,
a base agreement could be concluded "very quickly." The American
Ambassador in Madrid believes that Spain is firm in its position.
Comment: In his July 1951 conversation with
the late Admiral Sherman, Generalissimo Franco stated that the grant-
ing of bases would automatically place Spain in a belligerent status in
the event of a war involving the United States, and, as a consequence,
It must be given defense assistance. Madrid's insistence on such aid
may also be based on fear that the formation of a European defense
force, including Germany, reduces the importance of Spain to American
security interests.
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