CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/05/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02684298
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 22, 1952

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SEC}11liTY INFORMATION
22 May 1952
copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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voCUMENT
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Office of Current Int ellige ncieNA:EV#A)aTclmes:: Iri5REAIG DI.EE2ADDIE FiEv ewER' 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SEITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
. Increased Soviet night interception noted over Korea (page 3).
2. Karens and Burmese Communists nearing an alliance (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iran offers to include oil in exports to USSR (page 4).
4. Iranian oil official says Italian tanker expected (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Yugoslav estimate of Satellite strength (page 5).
6. Czech jets make identification passes at Belgian airliner (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Soviet tough line in Germany seen meeting early test (page 6).
8. Britain blocking agreement on German defense contribution (page 6).
9. Adenauer may regain control of the West German Senate (page 7).
10. Italian Government faces danger in 25 May elections (page 7).
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FAR EAST
1. Increased Soviet night interception noted over Korea:
three new Soviet
fighter units first noted in Manchuria on
21 April began night combat operations against
UN aircrkft over Korea in mid-May. Each of these units has about
25 fighters, probably jets, and they may be operating from Anshan,
50 miles south of Mukden. Only one jet fighter regiment previously
was engaged in regular night operations over Korea.
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Comment: The Far East Air Force also
reports an increase since early May in enemy night interception of UN
bombers. the enemy has assigned 3.3(h)(2)
about 100 jets and 25 conven-tional fighters to this operation, their lack
of airborne radar has hitherto prevented effective interception.
2. Karens and Burmese Communists nearing an alliance:
In early April staff-level representatives of
the Karens and the Burmese Communists
reached an agreement on joint operations and
the administration of captured areas,
No agreement was reac es. re-
garding the boundaries of a future Karen state.
While feeling that a complete alliance with
the Communists is inevitable, the top Karen leadership is reportedly
stalling for time in the hope of receiving military assistance from other
sources.
Comment: This is the latest in a series of
reports indicating progress toward an alliance between the two major
insurgent forces in Burma.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iran offers to include oil in exports to USSR:
Iran has now agreed to include oil on its list 3.3(h)(2)
of exports offered to the USSR under the pend-
ing trade agreement. The Iranians, however,
have made the offer conditional on the payment
of world market prices, on limitations on quantity, and on the Russians'
taking delivery at Abadan. They also insist on Soviet deliveries of sugar
and machinery in exchange. The Russians reportedly are displeased
with these conditions.
The US Embassy in Tehran comments that the
USSR could be expected to make every effort to move the petroleum if it
thought this would result in discontinuance of American aid to Iran.
4. Iranian oil official says Italian tanker expected:
A National Iranian Oil Company spokesman 3.3(h)(2)
has confirmed information received by the
American Embassy that a tanker is due
momentarily at Abadan to load one thousand
tons of crude oil for Italy. The spokesman described the shipment as
an experiment which, if successful, would result in further shipments.
Comment: This is the first confirmed report
since the British withdrawal from Abadan that a tanker is actually pre-
pared to load there. An Italian oil company representative in Iran on
20 May informed an American Embassy official that an Italian ship was
due in Abadan on 21 or 22 May. The British Admiralty reports that the
vessel is the Italian-owned tanker Rosemary, under charter to a Swiss
company.
The shipment is apparently the first to be
made under a two million ton per year contract reportedly concluded
between Iran and a small Italian petroleum company in February. The
Italian Government has made definite assurances that no Iranian oil will
be given import licenses. These assurances will not necessarily pre-
vent shipment of the oil to another country.
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EASTERN EUROPE
5. Yugoslav estimate of Satellite strength:
recently in-
formed the US Army Attache in Belgrade that
his government does not visualize any outbreak
of hostilities with the neighboring Satellites in
the predictable future. The general staff esti-
mates vthat Rumania and Albania remain negligible in combat potential,
whereas the Hungarian armed forces are continuing to expand, and now
possess qualities which must be reckoned with.
In an earlier conversation with Ambassador
Allen, Marshal Tito stated that Bulgaria was Yugoslav ia's most dangerous
Satellite neighbor.
Comment: In the past, Yugoslav estimates
have indicated considerable scorn for the military capabilities of the
neighboring Satellites, except Bulgaria.
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6. Czech jets make identification passes at Belgian airliner: 3.3(h)(2)
On 19 May three MIG-15's made identification
passes to within about 700 feet of a Belgian
airliner flying inside its corridor over Czecho-
slovakia. No attempt was made to interfere
with the plane's line of flight. The United States Embassy in Prague
warns that a corridor or border violation may result in more drastic
action by Czech jet interceptors.
Comment: This incident could be a Czech
warning of potential unpleasantness if Belgium and the Netherlands fail
to grant a Czech request for reciprocal flight rights. Czechoslovakia
has been pressing both the Netherlands and Belgium for several months
to grant it landing rights in order to re-establish its air routes to Western
Europe which were cut off on 10 September.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7., Soviet tough line in Germany seen meeting early test:
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The next few weeks may be the test, according
to American officials in Bonn, of the actual
effect in West Germany of the Kremlin's new
tough line. The High Commissioner's office
points out that the "crust of West German courage is understandably thin"
under the present circumstances, but that it may be hardened if the Allies
are able to show a determination to counter Soviet moves.
HICOG believes that the Soviet Union will not
impose a full-scale blockade of West Berlin, but is more likely to impose
a "creeping blockade" of selective harassing, possibly restricted to out-
ward movements from Berlin, combined with an Eastern offer to absorb
West Berlin's production. As West German integration becomes a fact,
the Kremlin may also insist more and more that the Western powers
deal with the East German Government, acting as a front for the USSR.
8. Britain blocking agreement on German defense contribution:
German Finance Minister Schaeffer is 3.3(h)(2)
evidently prepared to accept the American
proposal that Germany's defense contribution
be divided between the Allies and Germany on
the basis of increasing the German share after a period of continuing
high payments to the Allies for support of their forces in Germany.
British representatives, however, have been
instructed to insist upon a flat monthly rate for support costs on the
grounds that scaling down German payments to the Allies this year would
prejudice the British bargaining position for the period after 30 June1953.
Comment: Althogh Schaeffer's conciliatory
attitude presents some hope of reaching an agreement in principle on the
defense contribution, the inability of the British negotiators to modify
their position may make it necessary to leave the entire question for the
Foreign Ministers to settle.
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9. Adenauer may regain control of the West German Senate:
Free Democratic Party leaders now predict
that the West German state of Baden-Wuert-
temberg will have a pro-Adenauer government
within eight weeks, and have directed the Free
Democratic deputies to withdraw their support
from the present state government They have
taken this action because the Federal Senators
from that stale will not support the federal
coalition's program. If a special state convention on 7 June does not
concur in this directive, a national party convention on 5 July may expel
some of the objecting members.
American officials in Bonn commment that the
party's national leaders will probably be successful in securing a new
state government favorable to Adenauer.
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Comment: Certain financial provisions of
the Contractual Agreement and its implementing legislation may not be rati-
fied unless there is a pro-Adenauer government in Baden-Wuerttemberg,
giving the Bonn government a majority in the Federal Senate.
10. Italian Government faces danger in 25 May elections:
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The United States Embassy in Rome believes
that the extensive gains which the extremist
parties are "certain" to make in the 25 May
South Italian elections will "jolt" Premier
de Gasperi's government and result in insistence by the left, and prob-
ably also by the right, on immediate national elections.
The center's continuing ability to hold a
national working majority against both the Communists and the extreme
right will meet its test in Rome, where the Christian Democrats are
linked in an electoral bloc with other moderate parties,only. The Em-
bassy believes the center alliance will pull through in Rome, but with a
plurality of only 50,000 or fewer votes as compared with 320,000 in the
1948 national elections.
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Should De Gasper i lose the city, "even the
staunchest supporter of the center would have to admit doubt of its
continuing viability." The ensuing crisis could bring about national
elections this fall, or a radical reorganization of the government, possi-
bly with the resignation of De Gasperi, or an admission of government
weakness by postponement of national elections from 1953 to 1954.
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