CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/03/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02682862
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: March 8, 1951

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8 March 1951
Copy No. CJ-
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.)
LASSIFIED
C A7: GHANOED TO: IS S C
NE-Xi-REVIEW DATE: ZO
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATED 2414, REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
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2. Speculation on Chinese Communist leader Mao's whereabouts wide-
spread (page 3).
3. Viet Minh offensive reported for mid-March (page 4).
NEAR EAST
4. Reactions to the assassination of Premier Razmara (page 5).
LATIN AMERICA
5. Panamanian police chief may attempt to remove president (page 6).
6. Brazilian Foreign Office requests delay in Eximbank loan for man-
ganese development (page 6).
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FAR EAST
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2. Speculation on Chinese Communist leader Mao's whereabouts wide- 3.3(h)(2)
spread:
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Comment: Mao's absence from the public
eye since 26 January has stimulated a spate of rumors and reports re-
garding his whereabouts and health. Although it has been reliably re-
ported that Mao has been suffering from a heart ailment and has been
attended by Soviet physicians, there is no firm information regarding
his present state of health. The various reports of Mao's travels, to
Moscow or elsewhere, have contained conflicting information with re-
spect to dates, means of travel and destination. Furthermore, there is
no evidence that the USSR is dissatisfied with Mao or is attempting to
replace him.
3. Viet Minh offensive reported for mid-March:
L'
Comment:
Comment: Current locations of Viet Minh
forces would permit an attack of this nature with little additional prepara-
tory movement. While it seems probable that one more strong effort to
decimate French forces will be made before the May monsoons and before
the arrival of planned French reinforcements and further US military aid,
there has been no definite indication that such an offensive is imminent.
4
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NEAR EAST
4. Reactions to the assassination of Premier Razmara:
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A reliable neutral source has stated that the
assassin of Premier Razmara is a member of
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the Friends of Islam, a fanatical right-wing
religious organization. A well-qualified source
with contacts in the Iranian government believes
that the assassination was probably motivated
by resentment against Razmara's opposition to
the nationalization of Iranian oil resources. According to this source,
the Shah, while naming Khalil Fahimi to head a caretaker government,
has offered the premiership to Hussein Ala, formerly Iranian ambas-
sador to the US. An Israeli broadcast from Jerusalem has stated that
martial law has been declared throughout Iran.
Comment During his tenure of office, Premier
Razmara aroused considerable opposition. Old guard elements in Iranian
politics and conservative Moslem groups opposed his program of economic
reform. The pro-Soviet Tudeh Party resisted his vigorous measures to
control subversive elements throughout Iran. British interests associated
with the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company became impatient at his failure to
secure ratification of the supplementary Anglo -Iranian oil agreement,
The Shah, while depending on Razmara for a successful program of eco-
nomic reform, was known to be apprehensive over the growth of Razmara's
popularity.
Razmara's death is likely to lead to increased
parliamentary instability, governmental confusion and internal tension.
Under an ineffective premier, Iran will be more vulnerable to Soviet
pressure, to the infiltration of Soviet agents and to internal dissension
inspired by the Tudeh Party. Furthermore, without Razmara, the suc-
cess of a program of economic reform is endangered.
The new acting Premier, Khalil Fahimi, who
is a member of the old guard group and a recently appointed minister-
without-portfolio, will prove to be less ?iffective than Razmara in
dealing with current problems. Hussein Ala is known for his under-
standing of the US and sympathy for US policies. He may be reluctant
to accept the responsibilities of the premiership, however, because Of
his age and ill health.
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LATIN AMERICA
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Comment: Relations between Arias and Remon,
the key to Panamanian stability since the coup of November 1949, have
deteriorated in recent months. The numerous rumors that Arias is
attempting to oust Remon from his position may provide Remon with a
compelling reason for upsetting the status quo. Remon reportedly ob-
tained written proof of the attempted graft on 5 March; he could use it
either to strengthen his position as police chief under Arias or to arouse
public support for a coup to install a more complaisant chief of state.
6. Brazilian Foreign Office requests delay in Eximbank loan for manganese
development:
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An official of the Brazilian Foreign
Office has requested that the Export- 3.3(h)(2)
Import Bank temporarily delay action
on the loan application for Sobramil, the company owned jointly by US
Steel and the Chamma family of Brazil, for the exploitation of the vast
Urucum manganese deposits in Mato Grosso. The official stated that
the application is under detailed study by the Brazilian National Se-
curity Council because the validity of the Chamma concession from the
State of Mato Grosso is being questioned; furthermore, some members
of the Council consider that, since the concession is located in a fronCer
zone, approval by both state and federal governments is required. The
official added that the problem is an entirely domestic one arising in
connection with Brazilian law.
Comment: The manganese deposit in
the Chamma concession, which is believed to contain 33 million tons of
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manganese, is the largest in the Western Hemisphere. The Brazilian
Constitution does not expressly require that such concessions have the
approval of state governments.
Although the military members of the
Brazilian National Security Council have continued to favor transporting
the manganese ore by rail (in order to obtain US improvement of the
railroad across southern Brazil), the Eximbank loan provides for the
construction of facilities for transporting the ore by barge down the
Paraguay-Parana River to a deep =water port This desire on the part
of the Brazilian military is a possible reason for the delay in the loan
application. The delay might also indicate that Brazil intends to use
the US need for manganese as a bargaining point at the meeting of the
Inter-American Foreign Ministers this month.
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