CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/10/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02623662
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: October 20, 1951

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
t)OCUMENT NO.
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3.5(c)
20 October 1951
Copy No.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on Italian offer to mediate Anglo-Egyptian controversy
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Thai Embassy official fears Communist seizure of Phibun government
(page 3).
NEAR EAST
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3. Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood resolves to conduct campaign of violence
and terrorism (page 4).
. Anglo-Iranian Oil Com an lans construction of re � - S � . � -
3.3(h)(2)
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Large influx of Soviet military equipment reported in Bulgaria (page 6).
7. Yugoslays dissatisfied with motives for Western aid (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East Germans attempt to procure heavy industrial equipment from West
German concern (page 7).
9. High Italian official discusses Communist strike and "peace" plans
(page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on Italian offer to mediate Anglo-Egyptian controversy:
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Premier de Ga,speri's offer of Italian good
offices to mediate the Anglo-Egyptian controversy stems from a desire to im-
prove Italo-Arab relations, to jprevent further political instability in the
eastern Mediterranean, and to guard against the economic losses that Italy
would suffer from any prolonged closing of the Suez Canal.
De Gasperi stated that Italy could exert her best
efforts to conciliate the national aspirations of Middle Eastern peoples with
the necessity of defending the common Mediterranean civilization. This
championing of Arab nationalism is probably an attempt to gain support from
the Arab countries for Italian Peace Treaty revision, which the Arabs have
viewed with some suspicion. In addition, the Italians are anxious to allay.
Egyptian hostility toward continuation of Italy's economic relations with the
former Italian colony of Libya, soon to become independent.
In this instance it is probable that de Gasperi's
stand is not as entirely favorable to the Egyptian position as would appear
from his statements.
FAR EAST
2. Thai Embassy official fears Communist seizure of Phibun government:
3.3(h)(2)
During the past two months there has been a sub-
stantial influx into Thailand of a Chinese Commu-
nist fifth column, according to a Thai Embassy
official in Washington. He further states that
un government is successful in obtaining the support of certain
opposition olitical elements, which it is now seeking, its fall before Commu-
nist-supported elements is imminent.
Comment: The US Air Attache in Taipei re-
ported on 15 October that he had been informed of a definite Chinese Commu-
nist plan to overthrow Premier Phibun's regime in the latter part of November.
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41though coups d'etat are continuously being
planned in Bangkok and a state of uneasiness has existed ever since the abor-
tive coup attempt of last lune, there is no information to confirm or deny
these reports. Unless the Communists covertly obtain the support of a sub-
stantial portion of the Thai army or police forces or receive considerable
support from Communist China -- which would have to be supplied through
Burma or Indochina -- it would be extremely difficult for them to seize power
in Thailand.
NEAR EAST
3. Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood resolves to conduct campaign of violence and
terrorism:
3.3(h)(2)
According to information reaching the US
Embassy in Cairo, the fanatic Moslem Brother-
hood is planning to go ahead with a program of
violence and terrorism, regardless of Egyptian
vernmen po Icy. �ne Brotherhood group has acquired 25 machine guns
for use against the British.
Comment: The Moslem Brotherhood was banned
in Egypt for two and one-half years for its terroristic activities, and is now
permitted a semi-legal existence. There is evidence that it has had contacts
with Communists. Its hard core membership may be only a few thousand;
its adherents under present conditions may be many times more.
Although the Egyptian Prime Minister has asked
his people to cease public demonstrations, and while the government may
take stronger control measures, reports indicate widespread and violent
popular attitudes which, under extremist guidance, may be uncontrollable.
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4. Anglo-Iranian Oil Company plans construction of refinery at Aden: 3.3(h)(2)
The US Consulate in Aden reports that the Anglo-
Iranian Oil Company will soon build a refinery
of approximately five million tons annual ca-
pacity in that British Crown colony at an esti-
mated cost of 40 to 50 million pounds sterling.
This project would take over two years to com-
plete and would necessitate improving the Aden
harbour and constructing loading and unloading
facilities for tankers.
Local AIOC officials believe that the construction
of a refinery at Aden reflects a change in British policy from refining at
sources in non-British territory, as in the case of Abadan, to refining within
British possessions.
Comment: The total production of the proposed
AIOC refinery at Aden would amount to approximately one-fifth of the capacity
of the large Abadan refinery. Since there are no proven oil fields in the
vicinity of Aden, crude oil for the refinery would come chiefly from Iraq and
Kuwait. With the Abadan refinery under Iranian control, the completion of a
refinery at Aden would help the British to service Africa and the Middle and
Far East more economically than from Western Europe.
3.3(h)(2)
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3.3(h)(2)
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Large influx of Soviet military equi ement re sorted in Bu
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Comment: This is one of several unconfirmed
reports received during the last month of the presence of unspecified types
of aircraft with Yugoslav markings in the Cominform cou r� djacent to
Yugoslavia. A report, had 3.3(h)(2)
claimed that Soviet bombers with Yugoslav markings were to bomb a
Hungarian town in mid-September in order to create an incident. On 24
September, Marshal Tito charged that bombers with Yugoslav markings were
in Hungary, poised to attack Yugoslavia.
There were indications of considerable Bulgarian
Air Force activity during 1951, which undoubtedly included the Bulgarian
fighter division equipped with Soviet-made aircraft, stationed at Bozhuriste.
Bulgarian Army annual training is such as to
place about half the country's divisions on the Yugoslav border during the
summer, but there are no indications of an imminent move against Yugoslavia.
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7. Yugoslays dissatisfied with motives for Western aid:
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3.3(h)(2)
During General Collinevisit to Yugoslavia,
Party theoretician Djilas advanced the current
complaint that US support was based primarily
on Yugoslav political and military defiance of
ra er an on the social and industrial progress which the Yugo-
slav overnment is attempting to achieve internally. Djilas justified the
present control of the Yugoslav Government by a small group as a temporary
necessity because of the inadequate political education of the masses.
Comment: Djilas' remarks were probably meant
as a warning that Yugoslavia will not tolerate any US or Western pressure to
change its internal system. They may also be a reflection of Yugoslav con-
cern that Western aid, disassociated from political support of the government,
is encouraging popular resistance to the regime's internal policies.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. East Germans attempt to procure heavy industrial equipment from West
German concern:
3.3(h)(2
Comment: One of the most critical shortages
in East Germany is that of steel.. Despite all efforts to increase the produc-
tion of existing plants, the quantity and quality of available sheet steel cannot
meet the demand.
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9. High Italian official discusses Communist strike and "peace" plans:
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A "high official" of the Italian Ministr (Si-Interior
told US representatives in Rome 97 October
that leaders of the French an alian Communist
Parties had recently thpe.d plans for a series of
w e-sca e s ri es in.0th countries. The strikes ostensibly were to be
strictly economic in character.
The Italian official said there were as yet no signs
that the working class in general was prepared to undergo the serious sacri-
fices such strikes would entail. He further pointed out that the Communists
had not succeeded anywhere in putting on mass "manifestations" to step up the
"peace" campaign. He declared that the most dangerous and damaging aspect
of current Communist activities was the widespread house-to-house propaganda
to the effect that the Italian Government's support of American policies, and
particularly participation in the Atlantic Pact, meant war.
Comment: This is the first definite information
on Communist strike plans since midsummer when the Communists were
reported planning European-wide crippling strikes this fall against US aid.
There are no indications that such strikes are imminent in either France or
Italy.
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Correction to
41111111101,
22 October 1951
Copy No. 4 7
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
(issue of 20 October 1951)
The first sentence of article 9, page 8 should read:
A "high official" of the Italian Ministry of Interior told US
representatives in Rome on 17 October that leaders of the French
and Italian Communist Parties had recently drafted plans for a
series of wide-scale strikes in both countries.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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