DISCUSSION OF ESTIMATES PROCESS AND END PRODUCT AT PRINCETON CONSULTANTS' CONFERENCE, 22-23 MAY, 1957. (NOTE: THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AT THE MAY CONSULTANTS' CONFERENCE IS REPORTED IN A SEPARATE MEMORANDUM.)

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02621007
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2013-02252
• Publication Date: June 4, 1957

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
4 June 2.957
STAFF MEMORANDUM NO. 29-57
SUBJECT: Discussion of the Estimative Process and End Product
at Princeton Consultants' Conference) 22-23 May, 1957.
(Note: The remainder of the discussion at the May
Consultants' Conference is reported in a separate
Memorandum.)
1. Participants:
Consultants
Hamilton Fish Armstrong
Cyril Black
Calvin Hoover
Klaus Knorr
Col. G, A. Lincoln
Harold Linder
Philip Mosely
Raymond J. Sontag
Joseph Strayer
T. Cuyler Young
CIA Representatives
Allen W. Dulles
James Cooley
Wayne Jackson
James Graham
Willard Matthias
Maurice Williams
Charles Cremeans
2. The afternoon session on 23 May was chaired by the Director who
asked the Consultants to address themselves to a consideration of
the estimative process and the improvement of its end product. He
introduced the discussion by quoting from a memorandum by Mr. Armstrong
recommending that NIEs be written so as to give greater emphasis to the
statement of possible alternative developments and rely less upon flat
and undocumented predictions.
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3. The discussion that followed centered around four principal
topics: (a) replacement of conclusions in the form now customary with
a three or four page narrative summary, (b) changes in the form and
content of the NIE Discussion, (c) the handling of differences of
opinion among the contributing agencies, And (d) the question of
policy recommendations in intelligence estimates.
L. The consensus among the Consultants on these topics was:
(a) that consideration should be given to the publication of a
separate summary, not coordinated among the IAC agencies, of each
National Intelligence Estimate, (b) that attention be given to the
inclusion of more data in$ or attached to, the text of National Intel-
ligence Estimates and more consideration of alternative possibilities,
(c) that every effort be made to inform the NIE reader of the existence
of differences of opinion within the Intelligence Community, and
(d) that more attention should be given to US courses of action as a
factor in all estimative problems.
5. Topic A. Narrative Summary
The DIRECTOR commented favorably on the terseness and conciseness
of
appreciations. He suggested replacing the
present form of NIE Conclusions with a three or four page narrative
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summary in place of the present conclusions composed of sentences
excised from the NIE text. STRAYER suggested that it mould be desir-
able, when time permitted, to consider the conclusions the day
following acceptance of the text; this mould make it possible to have
the conclusions a more effective and integrated document than can be
produced at the end of a long and tiring discussion of the text.
SONTAG said that, while recently reading over the entire 0/NE product
of the past year, he had felt the need for a crisp and stimulating
summary attached to each NIE. He suggested that an uncoordinated
summary be issued by the DCI, that it be written with conclusions
implicit, and that it be bound separately and apart from the NIE text.
LINCOLN suggested that such a summary might be written by one man and
not put through the coordination process. LINDER reminded the con-
sultants that the present practice with respect to conclusions has been
followed because other types of conclusions are difficult to coordinate
with the IAC agencies. At the same time he reminded the consultants
that a recent poll of readers of NIEs showed that the majority felt
that the most importaat feature of the NIE was that it represents the
agreed position of the Intelligence Community.
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6. Topic Topic B. Suggestions for changes in present form of the
text of NIEs.
SONTAG proposed that consideration be given to the issuance of
two related papers on each National Estimate, the first to be a
concise summary as discussed above and the second to be a more de-
tailed study of the problem, similar to the text of present NIEs,
but possibly with more documentation. HOOVER said he felt that
frequently NIEs did not have enough data to make 'che estimates that
they contained understandable and useful. He suggested that it be
made a practice to indicate within the text something of the quality
and quantity of data available on the problems dealt with. STRAYER
expressed his approval of the practice of attaching appendices to
the text in order to make factual data available without unduly
lengthening NIEs.
The Consultants expressed approval of ARMSTRONG'S recommendation
of the practice of stating alternative possibilities before making
the final estimate of probable developments.
7. Topic C. Handling of differences of opinion.
ARMSTRONG gave strong expression to the belief that it is dan-
gerous to allow differences of opinion within the Intelligence
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Community to be submerged in the standard "compromise consensus" and
proposed that where differences exist, their existence should be
made clear. SONTAG suggested weaving dissenting opinions into the
text of NIEs rather than submerging them in footnotes. The DIRECTOR
expressed the opinion that a footnote was most often the best way to
record dissents from the DOI position. MOSELY suggested that less
space be devoted to items on which agreement prevailed and more
attention be given to areas of disagreement. Thu DIRECTOR pointed
out that although there are many problems on which intelligent and
informed men disagree, there have actually been very few basic dif-
ferences among the IAC agencies on the interpretation of political
and economic data. COOLEY, LINDER, and HUIZENGA pointed out that
contributions to the last Soviet paper revealed differences on
Soviet military capabilities, which were quite clearly stated in the
NIE, but that there were no important differences on the Soviet
political and economic situation. SONTAG suggested that members of
the Board of National Estimates could frequently speak out more
clearly end emphatically if they knew the Directorls precise position
on specific issues. The DIRECTOR indicated his willingness to be
consulted on his position whenever desirable.
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8, Topic D. Treatment of US Policy in National Intelligence
Estimates
The DIRECTOR observed that the Intelligence "Watchdog Committee"
has recommended that he play a more active and aggressive role in the
Intelligence Community. He recommended that more attention be given
to the role of US policy in NIEs and expressed the opinion that this
can be done without violating the rules defining and limiting Intelli-
gence activity, LINDER pointed out that 0/NE arld the Consultants had
always been very conscious of the standing rule against estimating
probable US courses of action and expressed the opinion that there
would be great interest in the Director's recommendation.
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