WEEKLY CONTRIBUTIONS LATIN AMERICA BRANCH, ORE, CIA 15 FEBRUARY 1949

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02261206
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: October 18, 2019
• Case Number: F-2018-01413
• Publication Date: February 15, 1949

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Weekly Contributions
Latin imeria- OPE, CIA
15 February 19!.9
B/LA finds, among the week's developments, two items of particular
interest. In Venezuela there is a significant increase in pressure for
a reorganization of the military junta (p. 2). US policy and prestige
are involved in the possible rejection by Panama's Assembly of the pro-
posed air transport agreement (p. )4).
.111111
SUUMARf
NORTHERN DIVISION: The current situation in Costa Rica is reviewed in
the article section (p. 5). Panama's National Assembly could very yell
turn down the planned air agreement with the US (p. 14). In Panama's re-
cent financial law it is frankly acknowledged in the text that the country
has not yet recovered from recent elections (p. 2). Review of the cur-
rent situation in Nicaragua will be found In the article section (p. 7).
CENTRAL DIVISION: In Venezuela the growing opposition to the military
junta could have serious consequences (p. 2). A mob in Ecuador destroyed
a radio station, but no political implications are evident in this event
(p. 2).
SOUTHERN DIVISION: A review of the current situation in Paraguay will be
found in the article section (p. 9). In Argentina the need to settle the
present printers' strike may make it necessary for Peron to compromise
(P. 3).
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Weekly Contributions 15 February 1949
BiLA, CIA
1. PAUAlal: 2_12112111121:_peo le in the US to realize than an election
may be more disturbing than a revolution in Latin America,
A proposed law has been introduced into the Uational Assembly whereby
a moratorium is to be established until 31 January 1951 with respect
to all financial obligations of the National Treasury pending from 1
January 1947. The preamble for the lam cites three reasons therefor;
one is the fact "that peace of mind, disturbed by the electoral process
which has just ended, has not yet been restored, and as a consequence
the normalcy and harmony of the Isthmian family has not been reesta-
blished".
2.
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VENEZUELA: Growin ressures for reorganization of the 'ints.
A (iI4 source recently repo ed that the opposition within
the military (see D/LA l'aly for g Feb )450 now is apparently becoming
organized into two groups. Ilost important of these is the newly formed
"Grupo Uribate", leaders of which are Colonel Ochoa Dricefio, General
Cells Paredes, flange]. Lamus, and Luis Geronimo Petri. Its chief aim
is the removal of Delgado Chalbaud because of his moderate policies.
A second group may be forming about Colonel Jose Lean Rangel, who is
"euspected of conspiring with I:edina elements". It is now reasonably
clear that the purpose of both groups is to rid the government of all
officials tainted with noel& Democr4tica influence, among whom Delgado
Chalbaud is foremost.
Student and labor disturbances may play into the hands of
ahe groups who seek reorganization of the junta. US Embassy Caracas
has reported that the student disturbances at the University of Caracas
on 10 February may be followed by other such disturbances in order to
provoke the labor syndicates to declare a nation-wide general strike
within a few days. The report indicates that the strike would have
Communist support, It is believed that the labor syndicates will not
be stampeded into a general strike because they are not now ready for
any such drastic action. A series of student disturbances and wild
talk about a general strike will, however, strengthen the hand of the
anti-Delgado opposition, which favors a stricter labor policy and a more
rigid control of the country and population. In any reorganization of
the junta the chances are good that Perez Jimenez, who has often op-
posed US policies and objectives, will be made president of that body.
ECUADOR: The mob destruction of a ruito radio station on the night of
12 February Nes precipitated by the station's dramatization
of an invasion from Lars. There were no political implications in the
rioting and there is no evidence that it was Communist-inspired, The
event does, however, offer another dramatic incident shoving the emo-
tional instability of Latin American crowds and their potential for
violent reaction to chance events.
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Weekly Contributions 15 February 1949
B/LA, CIA
4.
ATIONTIRA: The Per& administration faces a dilemma in attempting
to en the printers' strike which has deprived Buenos
Aires of newspapers since 8 February. If the government persists
in denouncing and jailing the conservative printers as Communists,
it will discredit this procedure, evidently intended for largo-scale
use -- in some other industries justification could be found in Com-
munist affiliation of workers -- to resist inflationary -wage demands.
On the other hand, if the government compels the publishers to grant
the printers demands, it will compromise its anti-inflationary stand
against wage increases. Such a concession in iavor of the non-
Peronista printers would make the government less able to persuade
the mess of Peronista labor to limit their wage demands. Because
the skilled are difficult to replace, and since the government nor-
mally uses a largo sector of the press for propaganda purposes, it
is probable that the strike will soon be settled through compromise
measures which may involve (1) partial concession on wage demands,
perhaps disguised as special benefits, and (2) announcement that
subversive elements have been eliminated.
CO ENTIAL
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Weekly Contributions
B/LA, CIA
Article 7-449
15 February 1949
The Bilateral Air Transport Agreement and Panamanian Politics
Panamanian political developments have introduced complications into
the current US negotiations for an air agreement. As a resat, ratification
by the National Assenbly is not assured.
The successful negotiation of an agreement which will permit full itil-
ization of Panama's new and costly national airport has become a matter of
prestige for President Diaz' government. This airport, built by the preced-
ing government, now operates at a substantial loss and is not fully utilized
by commercial air carriers, who prefer Canal Zone facilities. Without the
air agreement, co-mercial airlines will continue the existing arrangements,
and political groups opposing the Diaz government can thus point to Panama's
immensely costly and "deserted" airport as indicativn of government inepti-
tude and incompetence. The opposition can be expected, both by innuendo and
political maneuver, to endeavor to embarrass the government by putting ob-
stacles in the path of ratification.
In particular, opposition may be expected from Nara dio Arias, former
president, the country's most influential publisher, and a bitter personal
enemy of President Diaz. Diaz did not receive a majority of the popular
vote in the recent elections, and Arias believes that he mas elected by
fraud and deceit. Tach seeks to ruin utterly the other. Thus Arias and his
sons can be expected to throw every resource at their command against the
agreement in order to prevent Diaz from achieving any success. The influence
and connections of the Arias family among intellectual and student circles
-- the Rector of the National University is a brother-in-law of Arias and
possibly in debt to him � will probably be utilized to arouse popular in-
dignation over the "oppressive" terms of the agreement.
The Diaz government's position before the National Assembly is already
weak. The most recent session has not approved the government's budget;
the government failed also with its bill for salary increases, with its
proposal for special fiscal powers, and with other measures in which it de-
monstrated a special interest. On 1 February, a 15-minute riot occurred in
the Assembly gallery during which government supporters shouted "You'll be
bathed in blood".
US Hemisphere policy and prestige, rather than long-term air transport
interests, are at stake. Should the agreement fail at the hands of the
National Assembly, Canal Zone facilities will remain available to US commer-
cial airlines serving the area. Nevertheless, although long-term US air
transport interests might not be impaired, failure of the agreement, like
that of the ill-fated Defense Sites Agreement, might have unfortunate popular
repercussions on the concept of Hemisphere solidarity as based on unity of
the 21 American Republics.