O/NE CONSULTANTS' MEETINGS AT PRINCETON, 11-12 MARCH, 1954

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02233848
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2013-02252
• Publication Date: March 19, 1954

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;Ala It
19 Nhrch 1954
MENORANDUM FOR DIR7CTOR OF C7NTRAL INTELLIGENCE
THROUGH; AD/NB and DDil
SUBJECT: 0/NE Consultants' Meetings at Princeton, 11-12 Ma 1954.
The following were present at sons or all of these meetin et
gousultantm
William L. Langer
Calvin B. Hoover
George Kennan
Philip Mosel,.
Nom MIllikan
Richard Bissell
0, A, Lincoln
Guest'
Rear Admdral Z . S. Layton, The Joint Staff.
Roar Admiral Chester Wood, The Nattora1 War College.
thg Board 4 Aral&ona�stimateg
Abbot Smith (Chairman)
L. L. Montague
Frome 0/K
R. S. Cline
Don Harris
'filth Clark
B851
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
(b)(b)(3)
2. In an earlier memorandm you were informed of the main points
arising from the discussion at these meetings of NIS 100-3.54; Cones us es
R
_122. he other papers discussed were at an earlier stage of production,
and the fruits of the meetings can be incorporated into later drafts of
these papers. I attach here, however, a brief note of some of the more
interesting points that were brought out in connection with these other
papers.
Abbot Smith
Chairman
=NMI
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614,44 �4-
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.4, Ili II L I
mai "err
Pr000nti
1. The
rultants a
not to illocuna
lelich are coot
the rrovortion 04
lewd regueed rms., tha
intention of anisaysing
and si
werl
Willa
of a more
�
WrrA,
discussion va advioe of 41e
LAC conte.14 of the anwel. Soviet octIsats
� The Cmsultants arTroved the noW.fieetions
his yvarss estimate. Mo7 riPeormonled Vat
aeveted to strict/7 military vttors bu sane.
cue Soviet SatirAtcs. May ep-r-Proe our
ble Soviot estimate of the worll etJation.
_that Soviet oourires of action weed -owe on tho tots],
,T! vnd t ocbiltt. PaCrAvel%.t.L.IM ea 2r. AL 1k-,t,
of tha-5.,;4ifitittloo itself. hers c r ratcgoa
Chertmtesr.
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
A draft oe this 7stimatf4 aa rern
convidtvntion by the Board 0. Nttt
to line Coneultants fOr eistraonion.
1-reoen.2 LtOrer Hylover Kerr
thod, !tons, .bntarage,
,
Oft Ste,f ar
gatimatA:, vas submitted
etas 001104014293
hose rresent thc
pans both in SoviA a
our allies more
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
Con,
t the ea:46ton**
.;,,undap waeld
00$2.Y. tt) va, Ty*
Western alliance woule tsie to vniTkon
of Vac int:reeved fear af ',oar arisine
of nuclear veapone. 411 Consultants arromis
and conduot of trollid be the Mn
ding the alliance together, if the allies ,
ely calcultAted to vrevent wareaul to 171-oteot
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Nsio
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facunc
Name
vital Astern iitrit, tLGr vr1ciIlrobably with -
.onsidorad3 o3 iy to b. r.h or unreasonable, V017 von.
by fears of nuelpar wtehre te try ane tuttrichto talivos Pr:al close
connection wit;. vac, Tolley.
3, oitloreultants t
1isincline4 to support the U.S in stri.
aggression if ouch 4i,Tression oecurred
of Um. allies throsalven.
A�
the tht:1 YStrd-n;iC be
00,1V.A4.1it
in not 121 intarorrts
44 Al]. t'In0.21':. t'S believed that the al *6 t1 rt the 7S
through A grave windy ult51 inninent threat w1 VeIliac q
derad thrt thslr mm n vital interests ver involvea the US '
greeted Una cries Iv a rimpaliay.Hawavar, al th aru1tta
god the roTearious basis for such a Judean/to Theyf&.t it rrobetae
re would be differences ir tha resronses o ari:Ass U3 1,11isa;
moot cariAnnen in the 3, nna in 4est Gertany.The was no
ion aaron tieOonsultnnts to believe that SniliravYLLe deaert
ammo under thrent of wor beeause of fear of nv;eloar loosa;
nirdlt 6oece-t, ,Iewevre., if the7 thaucht that the wr lid not ocnoorn
hiA lowIr brutT,tt an by rockloor 78 action.
124
5, A colifaron
hor representa-
ralat!of to 4ea
he
Mire th (b)(b)(6)
These nen Are not: en,m.cof in sostal (b)(3)
. t1 ir eipthime Wqr0 eat, On Vile
(b)(3)
6. lo 41 sized that the
f,ernans are now thoroughl-i. oonvinced thrt will lot risk
the Wastorn Coalition line they are nonewhat acre assimee ttrtn before
the US will not create a threat of war. Nen T7aroToon adalter:'
currontly pay otaToratively little attention to fl le; ,Joeponc, are
in:fanned about Uwe, an still tend to think of utr nrec.
nuclorit vespen tlyrs.
7,
thnt if tho rive 7(b)(3)
7.0 convineed tt both th z3"-S5R
- will bettor* rsatly oonctrnid 1Not the 7S
o as cslortial to TAT will for,T
- 2 -
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LUflLI
un
'mole
.on vb.tch it n;
even levee tbet
mia7 we.. 1 Ofie; rar
mu exists, in ort1,3rtret.m.cr.ire the=sel
o rozeL.t teat then.
4tCs!:;,.r.7,,ation of a F:,,. not; ...aiv,1 t.'..,'L tho
he itself threatened t.,,,,re!.th 4ostr4Alon, by
nuclear 14soaorla, 74tay cote* to 0:,::::Iiier lettttero
1.ilei'll stmtericeliy vital in intetseentiptertal
verftre, wae all, therefore foract Its 7,11zoreasa
arise, ht s net prsertJualy been brou,�7:bt 3,r,) in
dinemsion of this !,:o.7.er. believes it to
bfF 11 very 7robable lerilemp-A In. ?r,..-mo o,r,inion
V:.,e,F1fa
rii thin 2ttFt4 lsas
ion Ivy the -rtsate,
butiora frof
"t,
!!ioov-Iro !bsely, 1.1.11.1n
14::.:770g1
licfc (7 that
or irobable
tr economy nnd zaderniginc
They ecOsaisee, tbe it !therm
let Chines) face in these mattsrs,TkA4TINNY'l
that itioreeoe of arrieuaturel yro-tuction t fs4731
or the viloie dhineve Ocisrimist morrst.4 but they exiator
largely to 6,1 =oh =re that, keisr. wita.1 the
70.1ra1etion. Tte Conerltnnts vise tNe Oesnnnist
ocenwirmily ;:ztri t1 rily thwirdo Ll�ei.TA pozar
ctatun btrg roCs feneclable than th.:,t fcth thf.' -Arts)th
tIntri.yrr R4/13. Reese Aim,
1-xore
raw" (b)(:(b)(6:
of
(b))(6)
(bc1?)(6)
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
'yore
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vivo
C a.t!re.st3e1 COIN t :111
to uiiJ 172416 t1:1 O*744eniekrIt ttlnen tim etirtrIc
Thay Ix) 1.5. :III 1.4006 of F.:roan ble threat
Pingn tbe eountry�
of t:Li 44;
Gall..11,
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15 March 1954
MEMaRANDUM FOR DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
753
THROUGH* AD/NE and DDJI
SUBJECT: Consultants* Meeting on NIB 100.3-54: Consequences of a
Relaxation of Non-Communist Control of Trade within the
European Soviet Bloc.
1. The Consultants met at Princeton on 12 March, considering the
Board draft of NIB 100-3-.54. Consultants present were
William L. Langer
Calvin B. Hoover
Philip Mbsely
Richard Bissell
Col. 04 A. Lincoln
Also present as guests were Admiral Wood, Deputy Commandant of the National
War College, and Admiral Layton, of the Joint Intelligence Group.
2. The Consultants unanimously agreed that the advantages to the US
of the postulated relaxation of trade controls would outweigh the advantages
to the Soviet Bloc. They considered that, although the Bloc woad gain some
benefits, the improvement in its economic, and military position would be
slight. On the other hand the US could, if it managed the relaxation skill.*
fully, extract very considerable political and psychological advantages.
3. In more detail, the Constltante made the following points:
a. The actual increase in East-West trade following upon
the relaxation of controls would be slight, both because the
Bloc would not have the wherewithnl to pay for a large increase of
imports, and because the Bloc policy of selfeufficiency would make
it unwilling to seek a large increase.
b. The Bloc would benefit from the added flexibility which
increased foreign trade would give to its economy. Some shortages
(b)(3)
(b)(3)
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would be be relieved. The total of such benefits would be small,
however, and there is no way of knowing exactly which commodities
would, if freely imported, confer most advantage on the Bloc.
Nor would the list of such commoditiee remain the same for Tory
long. A complete prohibition of East-West trade would therefore
be necessary if it were desired to insure that the Bloc should
not acquire goods of special advantage to it.
4. The consultants thought that the draft greatly underestimated
advantages which the West could derive from a relaxation of trade controls:
a. The allies of the US would be favorably impressed if the
US should relax trade controls willingly' rather than reluctant',"
and under pressure.
b. The Bloc would probably not keep the promises of increased
trade that it has been making. The allies of the US would not
derive the economic advantage from such relaxation that they seem
to expect, and this disappointment would be blamed on the Bloc.
0, The Satellites would probably wieh to expand their trade
with the West to a greater degree than the Kremlin would permit;
some stresses and strains might thereby be created within the Bloc.
4. The Bloc would be deprived of a valuable propaganda
weapon in that it could not accuse the US of thwarting an increase
of mutually profitable trade with non-Communist peoples.
es The relaxation could be presented in propaganda to
the Bloc us an evidence- of peaceful intentions, of a desire to
lessen international tensions, even of a desire to ameliorate
the living conditions of Bloc populations.
5. On the other hand, the Consultants recognised the probability that
a relaxation of trede controls with the full approval of the US would have
tome tendency among US allies to reduce the feeling of urgency to maintain
a united front against the Soviet threat.
Abbot Smith
Chairman, Panel of Consultants
2
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